Race pace

Marc, does that table exist for those of us who might have VDOT's lower than 40? 

I'm not Marc, but yes

and for paces:

If that is your typical easy or moderate-easy training pace, then there is a good chance you can do a bit better than that in the HIM (assuming you are well trained and paced appropriately across all 3 sports).  In general, targeting your open marathon pace (if you know it) is a reasonable goal for a well-executed HIM run.

Although that's not showing how the VDOT related to IM/HIM pacing though. Which I find really cool!

Doh!  You're right.  I'll get back on my bike now...

VDOT = pseudo VO2Max and is determined by the result of a recent competition (so a race done at race pace or "all out") then that effort can determine other equivalent efforts at different distances and training paces (much like Mcmillan.)

Read Daniels Running Formula thank me later

Oh and no, it's not gender/age/weight graded. 

Very good point - I think this is true of many of the running predictors (they assume muscular endurance fitting for any and every distance).  However, most of them will state that using, for instance, a 5k to predict a HM requires that the person be equivalently trained for the longer distance (McMillan says almost exactly that), so they give fair warning.

I think you're spot on with the muscular endurance bit, although that is true of anyone - not just triathletes (we just have a good excuse - or two!).  It was true of me last season for a couple HM's and also my first HIM, as I didn't have as big a base running.  This year, my "short" distance paces (5k, 10k are definitely endurance events, but you know what I mean) are about the same as last year, but I've been able to hold my predicted HM pace longer - and it's now close to what was predicted last year.  We'll see about what that means in a tri...

Wouldn't hold for a full mary for me unless I did a lot more mileage, but that's why all these predictors should be taken with a grain of salt.

What I REALLY like about the VDOT chart that Marc posted is that you can use a HM race and see a prediction for a HM tri (or other equivalent distances).  It answers an orthogonal - and more interesting to triathletes, of course - question to "How fast can I run a HM based on my fastest mile" and the first time I'd seen it presented that way/that well.

Although, in the end, muscular endurance in the other sports will also matter - as does race strategy and execution - so grains of salt probably still advised (if you overcook the bike, you're not going to see a time within 4 points or dots or whatever of your stand alone VDOT!).  Good stuff!

Matt

PS - Marc and Salty, I'll thank you now.  I really have to read up (and am thinking about the fools errand of calculating those KQ numbers - not for use so much as for fun to see!).

Out of curiosity, do you know the critical volume numbers they predict for the other two offhand?  I think I'm there on the run, and likely close on the swim (if I had to guess), but I'd predict way off on the bike.  Just wondering (if it's not too much of a hi-jack!).

Thanks

Matt

Look here. It's also important to understand what this info is and is not. It's this guy's idea of how much volume is needed to attain a certain speed curve. Kind of like the marathon potential based off of 5k or 10k times. Why did it fall short? Because the run volume may not have been enough to match up with what Daniels or McMillan think is an ideal decay of pace as the distance increases.

This is NOT to say that these are the volumes people should shoot for in all situations. Short course pros easily blow the doors off this as they go way over what's needed for their events. They want to go as fast as possible, so do much more than what this says is necessary for the durability aspect.