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2014-07-23 4:33 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
Originally posted by Left Brain

We'll be in Milwaukee as well.  He's got Jr. Elite Nationals, AG Nationals, and AG worlds in a 5 week period......lots of sleeping for him. I think he could make worlds in sleeping too..




Wow.

Is he doing the Sprint or Oly? If its the sprint Hopefully I will not get in his way since I will be the old way of triathlon out there in Milwaukee.


2014-07-23 4:39 PM
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Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds

Originally posted by chirunner134
Originally posted by Left Brain

We'll be in Milwaukee as well.  He's got Jr. Elite Nationals, AG Nationals, and AG worlds in a 5 week period......lots of sleeping for him. I think he could make worlds in sleeping too..

Wow. Is he doing the Sprint or Oly? If its the sprint Hopefully I will not get in his way since I will be the old way of triathlon out there in Milwaukee.

All sprint.  Probably won't move to Oly on a national level for 2 or 3 more years.....he does one or two a year on a local level for fun but he's pretty much been locked out of the Olympic distance by his coaches until his speed work is done.  I doubt that kid would ever figure anyone is in his way.....he truly loves triathlon and everyone who lines up. (he got that from his mom LOL)



Edited by Left Brain 2014-07-23 4:42 PM
2014-07-23 5:12 PM
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Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
Originally posted by Left Brain
Except that....if things continue at the current pace, 5-10 years from now you will have thousands,many thousands, of people who only grew up with DL at the sprint level.  There is a future in DL, believe it.  What I think is that you will never lose the non-drafting sprints....or at least there will always be enough of them to bring in beginnners who are older and have never done a triathlon. 

As for your other points about race waves....what about qualifiers for Nationals.....and does Nationals need to be all DL at the sprint level since that's what World's will be.




Tell me what data is wrong here :

The overwhelming, but I mean overwhelming majority of triathletes in the USA are AGers. The average age is late 30s. So you have a huuuuuuuuuuge number or triathletes that have never done a DL race.

While the growth of juniors is fantastic, the growth of AGers remains strong. It will take 15 years before the youth, become AGers and we reach the point that 50% of triathletes have done a DL race.

In the mean time, while we will hopefully grow the infrastructure for the juniors, many thousands of 30 and 40 year olds, will be doing their first sprint for the first time as they realize they need to get off the couch.

Unless all these AGers get hooked on DL, I think it's going to grow much slower than you think.

And let's be clear. I would love to see DL succeed. I am tempted to give it a go for a year.



Edited by marcag 2014-07-23 5:13 PM
2014-07-23 5:19 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain Except that....if things continue at the current pace, 5-10 years from now you will have thousands,many thousands, of people who only grew up with DL at the sprint level.  There is a future in DL, believe it.  What I think is that you will never lose the non-drafting sprints....or at least there will always be enough of them to bring in beginnners who are older and have never done a triathlon. 

As for your other points about race waves....what about qualifiers for Nationals.....and does Nationals need to be all DL at the sprint level since that's what World's will be.

Tell me what data is wrong here : The overwhelming, but I mean overwhelming majority of triathletes in the USA are AGers. The average age is late 30s. So you have a huuuuuuuuuuge number or triathletes that have never done a DL race. While the growth of juniors is fantastic, the growth of AGers remains strong. It will take decades before the youth, become AGers and we reach the point that 50% of triathletes have done a DL race. In the mean time, while we will hopefully grow the infrastructure for the juniors, many thousands of 30 and 40 year olds, will be doing their first sprint for the first time as they realize they need to get off the couch. Unless all these AGers get hooked on DL, I think it's going to grow much slower than you think. And let's be clear. I would love to see DL succeed. I am tempted to give it a go for a year.

Except that in 2016 worlds is DL....that's something to think about while your counting decades.

Like I said, I believe there will always be non-draft events.....but DL is where the fastest will race, and it's potentially where the TV revenue will come from.  Look around the world. 

I don't think you have seen then tip of the iceberg in youth/jr. triathlon.....there are not enough teams or races right now to handle the interest.  Stand by.

2014-07-23 5:31 PM
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Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
Originally posted by Left Brain
Except that in 2016 worlds is DL....that's something to think about while your counting decades.

<


Worlds is a "small" event. Most people don't know when it is and the total athlete count is about that of a single IM event.

Originally posted by Left Brain
  • but DL is where the fastest will race, and it's potentially where the TV revenue will come from. 


  • This I agree.
    IM has 0 TV appeal. Too long.
    AG has 0 TV appeal. Old people in spandex....nah
    The TV appeal is the pros, shorter distance, hence DL. And it may wake someone up and say "hey look at that triathalon thing on TV. Didn't cousin Flo do one. I should do one" and another AGer will be born. Or a kid will see it and join a club and grow up through the development plan. I don't see how TV will make a difference moving forward except create visibility for the sport as a whole


    Originally posted by Left Brain
    I don't think you have seen then tip of the iceberg in youth/jr. triathlon.....there are not enough teams or races right now to handle the interest.  Stand by.




    There are not enough races because races are expensive to put on. Hence They tailor to where the money is and there is a lot more money in the pockets of AGers.

    And don't underestimate my interest in Jr tri. I spent the weekend watching them and had some good conversations with a good acquaintance that coaches the kids that beat up on Jr :-)



    On a different note....if I chose to do Chicago next year, where should I stay ?

    Edited by marcag 2014-07-23 5:35 PM
    2014-07-23 6:44 PM
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    2014-07-23 6:51 PM
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    2014-07-23 6:53 PM
    in reply to: Fred D

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    Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
    Originally posted by Fred D
    FINA world champs is something I might watch,


    Is that even on TV ?
    2014-07-23 6:58 PM
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    Edited by Fred D 2014-07-23 6:59 PM
    2014-07-23 6:59 PM
    in reply to: Fred D

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    Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
    Originally posted by Fred D

    Yes, NBC sports channel. Pretty cool actually as they have 50m events in fly, back and breast along with all the normal events.


    Well then. I better do good flip turns.
    2014-07-23 7:01 PM
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    2014-07-23 10:25 PM
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    Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds

    You guys are wigged out.  Do you honestly think that the wave of youth/jr triathletes will not grow the sport beyond anything you can get with middle aged people signing on?  Think for a minute how flawed your logic is.....

    Marc - why do you think hockey is a staple of your country?  Do you think it's because you have Wednesday night men's leagues?  No....it's because kids play it.  Just like you and I looked up to Rocket Richard and Bobby Orr and Jacque Plante, kids today look up to Sid Crosby, etc.....they play in the backyard and want to be them.....at the very least they become fans, and they want their kids to play.  Same with you Fred......do you think baseball is what it is in this country because of softball beer leagues?  Hell no!!  Kids play and pretend they are current pros....and aspire to play at that level.

    Now....do you REALLY think triathlon is sustainable and growable (is that a word?) because some 30 something's decide to do it as a bucket list item?  That's stupid.  Those people are in and out of triathlon so fast they don't even count.  Thousands of them are joining each year?  Nobody cares if thousands more are out at the same time....and yes, that's what happens.  Look, be honest, triathlon will not grow because some 40 year old guy aspires to win his AG in the local Joe-Chit-The-Ragman triathlon......who cares?  Go win it, tell your friends on Monday and watch their eyes glaze over while you regale them with your exploits.  Hell, hit .750 in your softball beer league and you might get their attention.....because it's a sport THEY KNOW. They don't know our sport, and they aren't interested in hearing you go on and on about how much you train and how far you race.....really, they'd rather you just shut the hell up. 

    No....what will grow triathlon is kids.  This is unprecedented in our sport in this country.  25 years ago they didn't exist....now they are a tidal wave.  Can you go 15 deep in naming the worlds best on the ITU stage?  Can you name the 10 Americans with the best chance at making the 2016 Olympic team?  The kids I know can name them all. They can go 40 deep in ITU...maybe more.  They pretend to be them the same as I pretended to be Stan Musial.  THIS is how a sport grows. This is the group that wants to see it on TV in 10 years. And like it or not their game is DL triathlon.....they love the drama, the crashes, the chatter in the bike pack, and the look on the face of the guy they know is done coming out of T2.  THEY will be impressed in 15 years when you win the Ragman triathlon....but their kids will be pretending to be the pros of the day....and triathlon will grow more.

    Go ahead, marc......have the French commission a study.  Go ahead, Fred, tell me about the middle aged folks and how much they mean to the future of triathlon as they line up to quit and get on with their lives.

    The future of anything resides in the next generation......the future of triathlon resides with the next generation of triathlete.  They race draft legal.  Get used to it.  They are the best generation of triathletes we have yet had....the only one we have raised.  THAT'S how you grow a sport.



    Edited by Left Brain 2014-07-23 10:55 PM
    2014-07-24 4:27 AM
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    2014-07-24 5:59 AM
    in reply to: Left Brain

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    Subject: RE: changes coming to ITU AG worlds
    I was actually going to take the USAT numbers and show you....but at one point, what's the point ?

    anyways...got to go ride my bike
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