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2015-10-09 12:49 PM

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Expert
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Madison, Wisconsin
Subject: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Kona starts in less then 24 hour, here are my last minute predictions. No one can really predict this race or even the weather race day, its Kona, its unpredictable, should be a great race.

Men:
1. Frodeno
2. Kienle
3. Potts
4. Van Lierde
5. Frommhold

Darkhorse: Brent McMahon

Women:
1. Ryf
2. Joyce
3. Carfrae
4. Mary Beth Ellis
5. Liz Blatchford

Darkhorse: Angela Naeth

Dan Stubleski for AG win as well.

Edited by bcagle25 2015-10-09 12:50 PM


2015-10-09 1:15 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Pro
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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
I think those are pretty good guesses, but I'll just change the order a little. Men: 1. Frodeno, 2. Van Lierde, 3. Kienle. Women: 1. Rinny, 2. Ellis, 3. Joyce
2015-10-09 1:22 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Men:
1. Kienle (this is more optimistic than realistic thinking. Frodeno will blow up)
2. Frodeno
3. Brent McMahon
4. Van Lierde
5. Marino VH

Women:
1. Ryf
2. Joyce
3. Carfrae
4. Angela Naeth
5. Liz Blatchford

2015-10-09 1:36 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Katy, Texas
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Not sure about the men but I have to say Rinny for the women. I just don't think anyone can touch her marathon. The bike is for the show, but the run is for the dough.
2015-10-09 1:42 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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1502
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Katy, Texas
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Here's what Vegas says:





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(IMG_3553.PNG)



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2015-10-09 1:47 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

Originally posted by 3mar Not sure about the men but I have to say Rinny for the women. I just don't think anyone can touch her marathon. The bike is for the show, but the run is for the dough.

Nobody can touch her marathon, but if she gets off the bike 15+ minutes down again, I'm not sure she can bank on another marathon course record to pull out the win.



2015-10-09 1:54 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Oakville
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

I'm surprised Sportsbet has Sanders at 51.

I know he had a few disappointing races this year, but he's been training in the heat and if he bikes a smart race, he has the potential to run away with the win.

2015-10-09 2:38 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Wonder why last year's runner up (Hoffman) is getting no respect from you guys or Vegas!
2015-10-09 2:41 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Ottawa, Ontario
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
It'll be interesting to see what transpires with Sanders. He'll be pretty far down after the swim and will be biking solo to catch the leaders - if it's a day of brutal crosswinds that should negate the drafting advantage of the lead pack and allow him to catch up sooner. He certainly has the biking ability to catch the leaders by T2 and still have plenty left in the tank to unleash a fast run. Would be exciting to see him running with Frodo and Kienle.
2015-10-09 3:20 PM
in reply to: Jason N

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Madison, Wisconsin
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Originally posted by Jason N

Originally posted by 3mar Not sure about the men but I have to say Rinny for the women. I just don't think anyone can touch her marathon. The bike is for the show, but the run is for the dough.

Nobody can touch her marathon, but if she gets off the bike 15+ minutes down again, I'm not sure she can bank on another marathon course record to pull out the win.




No one will touch her marathon speed, but I think it will be just like the mens '10 race for Craig. The women's front pack will finally take advantage of her weak swim/bike. Carfrae always runs the first 10k too hard, and this year it might be her downfall.
2015-10-09 3:39 PM
in reply to: Scott71

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

Originally posted by Scott71

I'm surprised Sportsbet has Sanders at 51.

I know he had a few disappointing races this year, but he's been training in the heat and if he bikes a smart race, he has the potential to run away with the win.

Comes down to the fact he hasn't proven himself at the distance.  He won Florida last year - but there was no swim, and he actually imploded a bit on the run.

I think the swim is so key for him.  If he can hang at the back of a pack, save some energy, and not lose tooo much time, then he hopefully bikes into a good position by Hawi.  If he's not close enough by the turn around then I think it's game over, because someone like Keinle or VanHouenaker (sp?) is going to turn the screws on the rest of the field at that point, and Lionel won't catch back on.  I'm also not sure about his hydration game plan...

So much fun to armchair one of these.  Now I just need to convince the inlaws that they want this on all day tomorrow.



2015-10-09 3:56 PM
in reply to: GoFaster

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Originally posted by GoFaster

Originally posted by Scott71

I'm surprised Sportsbet has Sanders at 51.

I know he had a few disappointing races this year, but he's been training in the heat and if he bikes a smart race, he has the potential to run away with the win.

Comes down to the fact he hasn't proven himself at the distance.  He won Florida last year - but there was no swim, and he actually imploded a bit on the run.

I think the swim is so key for him.  If he can hang at the back of a pack, save some energy, and not lose tooo much time, then he hopefully bikes into a good position by Hawi.  If he's not close enough by the turn around then I think it's game over, because someone like Keinle or VanHouenaker (sp?) is going to turn the screws on the rest of the field at that point, and Lionel won't catch back on.  I'm also not sure about his hydration game plan...

So much fun to armchair one of these.  Now I just need to convince the inlaws that they want this on all day tomorrow.




Sanders will be game over by the time he gets on the bike. He just does not have the swim at this time to keep up. If you really look at his run, he is awesome at 70.3 but really has not proven he can run the marathon. Don't get me wrong, I think he is super talented but he needs to improve on some things before he will be in the mix at Kona.
2015-10-09 3:59 PM
in reply to: GoFaster

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

Originally posted by GoFaster

Originally posted by Scott71

I'm surprised Sportsbet has Sanders at 51.

I know he had a few disappointing races this year, but he's been training in the heat and if he bikes a smart race, he has the potential to run away with the win.

Comes down to the fact he hasn't proven himself at the distance.  He won Florida last year - but there was no swim, and he actually imploded a bit on the run.

I think the swim is so key for him.  If he can hang at the back of a pack, save some energy, and not lose tooo much time, then he hopefully bikes into a good position by Hawi.  If he's not close enough by the turn around then I think it's game over, because someone like Keinle or VanHouenaker (sp?) is going to turn the screws on the rest of the field at that point, and Lionel won't catch back on.  I'm also not sure about his hydration game plan...

So much fun to armchair one of these.  Now I just need to convince the inlaws that they want this on all day tomorrow.

Yeah, everything for him is at HIM distance. IM Texas didn't go so well. Florida didn't have a swim. He might do well, but isn't proven yet. Training in the heat doesn't mean he has figured it out yet either. Thinking he's going to run away with it or be first to T2 is hopefully just forgetting how good some of these other guys are.

2015-10-09 4:55 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

I watched every ITU race this year and while they were all exciting to watch, there is a ton more of suspense and "anything can happen" in this race.


2015-10-09 5:36 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions

Originally posted by marcag I watched every ITU race this year and while they were all exciting to watch, there is a ton more of suspense and "anything can happen" in this race.

Haven't watched much ITU, but do follow the main series results for it. Also feel much more suspense for this race than any of the others. Although it is set up that way. Long course has set up a few intermediate championship races, but it really all leads to this one point. Others like ITU spread it out more. There is a championship race, but seems to be more of a final race with more weight to it as opposed to how Kona more closely comes to an all or nothing. 

2015-10-09 6:01 PM
in reply to: brigby1

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Grrrr.... Just did the math and realized the race is pretty much happening overnight for me (I think starting at 1:30 AM ) Hopefully can get up early and watch some of the last part while riding the trainer Men....maybe Frodeno if he has figured out iron distance and racing in Kona's conditions. Women--Ryf, unless Rinny has made big gains on the bike over the past year. I know from personal experience that there comes a point where you just can't catch up as you run out of time! Last year her marathon was the third fastest of everyone, including guys. I can't see that there's a whole lot of low-hanging fruit on her run. OTOH, Ryf is a bigger girl and probably would struggle more with the heat for that reason, also less experienced at that course and maybe in the heat and iron distance in general. In a long race, there are always plenty of chances for someone to blow up, and luck favors the experienced and prepared. If Rinny had a poor bike, and Ryf blew up, then Rachel Joyce. She's never outstanding but always consistently up there, and there are times when that could win it.


2015-10-09 8:15 PM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Originally posted by bcagle25

Originally posted by Jason N

Originally posted by 3mar Not sure about the men but I have to say Rinny for the women. I just don't think anyone can touch her marathon. The bike is for the show, but the run is for the dough.

Nobody can touch her marathon, but if she gets off the bike 15+ minutes down again, I'm not sure she can bank on another marathon course record to pull out the win.




No one will touch her marathon speed, but I think it will be just like the mens '10 race for Craig. The women's front pack will finally take advantage of her weak swim/bike. Carfrae always runs the first 10k too hard, and this year it might be her downfall.


I find the women's race interesting b/c of the markedly different strengths of each individual & how the strategies will play out. As Ben alludes to above, does Rinny run too hard early on resulting in a fading finish or does Ryf go just a bit too hard on the bike trying to bury Rinny only too run out of gas in the last 5k?
2015-10-10 10:37 AM
in reply to: bcagle25

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Pueblo, Colorado
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
I'll go with . . . .
1) Carfrae
2) Ryf
3) Wurtele

The cool thing about this race is that even if Carfrae is 15-20 minutes down at the start of the race, she still has a chance to win.

1) Frodeno
2) Hoffman
3) Kienle
2015-10-11 11:06 AM
in reply to: tedjohn

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Madison, Wisconsin
Subject: RE: Last Minute Kona Predictions
Well I was able to get 2 of the top 5 men right, and 3 of the top 5 women, and both winners.

Great to see TO get the performance and close to the W as he did yesterday, he has been hunting for that for years.

I thought Raelert's best days and his last chance were behind him, then he ran through the field and had a great 2nd place result, his 2nd or third I believe.

Ryf did just about what I expected, same for Joyce. I know Jackson is a grinder of an athlete, but didn't see a 5th place coming, awesome effort.

Lots of DNF's on both side too.
Wurtele
Swallow
Carfrae
Cave
Crawford
Gajer
Vanhoenacker
McKenzie
Brown
Aernouts

And an odd # of crashes in the first few miles:
Cave
Hanson
Ambrose
Raelert???
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