Race anxiety

I mean no disrespect here, please know that. But, when I read your post, the first thing that came to my mind was "why do you compete"? If it is always to have perfect conditions and set new PR's, you will be disappointed.
It sounds like the race you are in is going to have bad weather. You could look at it that if you hadn't trained hard, the race would be miserable, and you would not be ready for it. By training really hard, you are ready to take on the poor conditions and do well, PR or no PR. To me, I would be patting myself on the back for training hard, which will really come in handy in tough conditions. To me, that is the "win".

To be honest if it wasn't the weather I'd find something to worry about ha ha. I just get a bit stressed race week. Thanks I know ultimately I'll look back on the race with pride as usually when I race I'll put in everything I've got, if the times don't work out, so be it.

I worked in Haiti for three years. Half of the children there die before the age of five due to malnutrition, disease or war. There were five revolutions while we were there. They live in excruciating conditions and instability and yet the Haitians are easy to laugh, friendly and resilient. When I start to get stressed, I try to look at the big picture and my issues seem very small in comparison.

Sure, looking at the big picture can help. But I understand....I come from a pure run background and am still very motivated by the idea of PB's, which can be almost meaningless in triathlon when courses and conditions vary so much. Remember, everyone is racing in the same conditions. And if you are as fit as you think you are, you have an edge if conditions are tough. I have always tended to do well in tough conditions, maybe because endurance comes more easily than speed, I train in extreme heat most of the time, and chop and swell don't tend to freak me out the way they would a less confident swimmer. I think if you've put in the hours, you have an extra advantage in tough conditions over those who might have decent speed but haven't done those long efforts in training.

This is one situation where a power meter is useful since it is a way to quantify effort on hard courses and in tough conditions, and set goals that won't get derailed by windy weather. I know at Calgary 70.3, the bike course turned out to be MUCH tougher than I'd anticipated. I'd understood from the website that there would be 1300 feet of net elevation gain, and there was actually 3600, most of it into a cold headwind in the first half. My only goal on the bike became, "Keep power at XXX." Seriously, I was staring at the Garmin so much I almost missed the dismount. But that kept me focused. It was actually my best HIM bike split by almost five minutes, although at one point on the outbound (uphill, into wind) part of the bike, I was thinking dark thoughts about starting a website called "worstbikesplit.com", blacklisting all the difficult bike courses on the IM circuit.

I still think about PB's--try to stop myself, but I sometimes find myself wondering, what is the fastest 70.3 course? Like maybe a downhill bike? And a downhill run? And a wetsuit swim in a lake? Somewhere with perfect weather??

"Considering the volume of training I've put in, I should easily better my PB, so it's a realistic goal. A lot of my training and thinking going into this race has really about getting a good time, that's it. Top 10 is another goal, although only a secondary one."

Given the conditions of the race will be the same for everyone, maybe your goals should be swapped?

You never want to sign up for a race if I am registered. There will be some problem with the weather. In every tri that I did this year, it was raining, with one exception. That exception was IMNC, which had a drastically shorted bike course due to flooding from a hurricane.

I have learned to embrace the suck when weather is bad. Driving rain, high wind--sure they slow me down, but they slow everyone else down, too. They make some people drop out. Have you ever been riding next to someone and have them announce that they were dropping out because they can't handle the weather? It is like a shot of adrenaline. Anyone can race on a beautiful day; you have to be tough to race in bad weather. Embrace it. Take pride in it.

Also, ignore the people who say that you shouldn't race if you get anxiety stepping up to the line. Not everyone feels the same way before a race, or during or after for that matter. Not everyone gets the same thing out of a race. Personally, before every race, no matter how prepared I felt the previous day, I get freaked out and want to get in the car, go home, and crawl under the covers. During any race longer than a sprint, there will be at least one time when I wonder what the hell I am doing out there. But I love it, and as soon as it is over I can't wait for the next one. Some of us simply aren't in our comfort zones at all times, and that is a good thing.

You have raced enough to know what's going on. From the looks of it this will be close to #10 or 11 for you not like your second 70.3. When you start getting towards the pointy end there are lots of things that can go one way or another that have an effect on your times. I can't tell if you are looking to go top 10 overall, top 10 non pro, or top 10 age group. But, you have set the bar high enough now that PR is going to take some work and some luck. The fitness that you have developed over the last three months is there. The work has been put in. PR or not you'll still do well.

Just look at Sanders setting the IM record a few weeks ago in Arizona, but just a few weeks before that had a terrible day at Kona. It happens to the best in the sport.

Trust your training and follow your plan.

I totally get chasing a time goal. it the one that is right there in front of us and the easiest way for us to compare one race to another but remember each race is it's own and just for that day.

USAT scores. They normalize everything. There has been some debate on how well (mostly by people that have never actually gone through the exercise of doing the math), but if you do actually do the math you'll see that it pretty much normalize you against everyone in the race and then against everyone they have raced against in the past year, then everyone THEY raced against. It then throws out the outliers (these are not the fastest and slowest mind you, it is the people whose performance changed the most from their previous race history, i.e. a good athlete, bonking and having a bad day is removed from the mix). It's a pretty solid system. For me, time goals are pointless for the very reasons you note, so I ignore them. I track my progress by the USAT scores of each race.

You'll never have the same conditions twice on the same course so enjoy PR's when they come. What I do is see how I do with respect to my competition. So if I don't PR that doesn't necessarily mean that I didn't have a good day or perform to my best abilities. At local races around here I know the competition pretty well so I'll know how well they did on a given day compared to what they're capable of and that helps as a reference point to my performance.

You've done the work now you simply need to execute.

Road work has moved to a much flatter bike route. It heads east does a bit of an out and back lollipop type route. T1/T2 are not seperate and the run is an out and back in the river valley.

Cool thanks for all the replies guys, feeling a bit more chilled about it now. What will be will be!