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2009-06-01 1:28 PM
in reply to: #2186616

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Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM
  • ...........
  • I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO.


    I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration.


    2009-06-01 1:45 PM
    in reply to: #2186577

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    2009-06-01 2:10 PM
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    2009-06-01 2:23 PM
    in reply to: #2185964

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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    I have a new favorite talking head in Washington.

    Gene Sperling. Just turned on the TV and found out the two things we are getting for our money.

    "A new leaner and meaner GM"

    And something that sounded like

    "A new leaner and meaner GM"


    Awesome.

    More fun facts

    "The Treasury Department will provide $30.1 billion in financing to support GM in its transition, Administration officials said, noting that Treasury “does not anticipate providing any additional assistance to GM beyond this commitment.” The government said it will receive $8.8 billion in debt and 60% of equity in New GM, as well as the right to appoint all but two initial directors.

    “We certainly intend to maximize taxpayer proceeds,” an Administration official said, but declined to project how much money taxpayers would get back -- or when.


    "it's a question of years, not months" as to when the government will no longer be majority shareholder of the company.

    followed by

    The Administration took pains to say it was not planning to be involved with GM for long.

    Not quite sure what to think of this

    It outlined four principles related to GM: One, that it would “seek to dispose of its ownership interests as soon as practicable”; Two, that in “exceptional” cases the government “will reserve the right to set upfront conditions to protect taxpayers”; Three, that the government would manage “its ownership stake in a hands-off, commercial manner” and “will not interfere with or exert control over day-to-day company operations, adding that no government employees would be on the boards or employees of the company; Four, that the government would vote its shareholder stake only “on core governance issues.”

    It outlined four principles related to GM: One, that it would “seek to dispose of its ownership interests as soon as practicable”; Two, that in “exceptional” cases the government “will reserve the right to set upfront conditions to protect taxpayers”; Three, that the government would manage “its ownership stake in a hands-off, commercial manner” and “will not interfere with or exert control over day-to-day company operations, adding that no government employees would be on the boards or employees of the company; Four, that the government would vote its shareholder stake only “on core governance issues.”



    Edited by Imjin 2009-06-01 2:28 PM
    2009-06-01 2:25 PM
    in reply to: #2187067

    Master
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    IF you want to pay $4 a gallon for gas, the next time you fill up, pay $2.50/gal at the pump and send another $1.50/gal to the federal gov't. I somehow think that'll never happen.



    AcesFull - 2009-06-01 1:45 PM

    tri42 - 2009-06-01 11:30 AM
    AcesFull - 2009-06-01 11:38 AM

    Jackemy - 2009-06-01 9:51 AM
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 9:27 AM I disagree with you on the hybrid car issue. Personally I think gas prices are going to be above $3/gallon again once the economy turns around. It's already back up to $2.50/gallon now. It wouldn't surprise me at all if gas went back up to $4/gallon either. Once gas does hit $4/gallon, there will be demand for these vehicles again.

    I think pouring money into GM was a bad idea because they really have a poor lineup of vehicles IMO. Their car lineup is just plain bad compared to the competition. Their truck/SUV lineup is actually pretty good, but their reliance upon those is part of what caused this current situation.


    Should the government create a floor price for gas to encourage demand for governmentally acceptable transportation?

    Yes.

    Was that a serious answer ? It's generally not in our best interest to be fixing prices. The reply in this thread where the ceo said "capitalism without failure......." has it exactly right, imho.

    There was a thread in which this was discussed at length.  And yes, my answer was VERY serious.

    2009-06-01 2:34 PM
    in reply to: #2187003

    Houston
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    eberulf - 2009-06-01 1:28 PM

    JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM
  • ...........
  • I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO.


    I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration.


    You don't wait for deflation to happen. You preempt it. There was/is a real fear of deflation and the Fed took action on it.


    2009-06-01 4:18 PM
    in reply to: #2187163

    Davenport, IA
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    Spokes - 2009-06-01 2:10 PM
    rkreuser - 2009-06-01 11:08 AM
    Spokes - 2009-06-01 1:44 PM
    rkreuser - 2009-06-01 10:02 AM

    This article was just posted on the Detroit Free Press site. It's a concise a description of what happened and BO's stated stance on the issue, and addresses specific questions regarding warranties, suppliers, dealers, etc..

    Time will tell if this script, and BO's position, are tenable.



    However, the pain would have been substantially less - at least up front - if GM's issues had been addressed by its managers and unions a long time ago. I think people aren't so much po'ed about the bankruptcy itself than the inept management (look at some of Waggoner's statements (and previous CEOs)) and just complete out-of-touch arrogance with where the auto market was and has been going.



    I get it...there are lots of folks in Michigan that have 3 cars, lake houses up north, and amazing pensions built on the backs of previous, lousy management. I get that America wants to take a pound of flesh out of the Auto execs, and the Unions.  The people running the ship were at fault, profited, and are now out of the industry...just like wall street. If there was a magic way to reclaim all the ill-got profits, I'd do it in a flash. But that doesn't help anyone, today.


    Third, GM does have some good products in its trucks and SUVs.


    They're pretty good...and that gets lost in the shuffle. It used to be a civic was immensely better than a chevy cavalier, orders of magnitude better. That's a given. But now, GM produces (in some segments) top-rated cars & trucks - Consumer Reports had the Chevy Traverse SUV ranked 2nd behind a toyota, but ahead of all infinitis, fords, nissans, hondas, etc. The caddy CTS is a nice car, top ranked.  But somehow all people can remember is the Pontiac Aztek.


    Fourth, on your comment about conserving resources... I do take some issue with that because IMHO the worst way to "increase" the pie for everyone is "conserve"....


    Good point. Should have chosen different words, but what I was really trying to say was that if we can't afford what we consume, either we need to consume less (either by conservation, efficiency, whatever means), or increase our financial resources, so that we can afford it, or both.


    This is a rather limited form of communication so no big deal

    I think we have to do both. People waste a lot of stuff.

    I lived in Michigan (87-88) in Battle Creek so I do understand - given the limited amount of time that I lived there, and what I saw and heard - the torture the state has gone through for at least a couple of decades with the car industry. What I was trying to say is that the little person (lets be politically correct now!) who wasn't a part of the union or management - the people who work in non-unionized or support functions to the auto industry - are the ones that are being screwed the worst here.

    I want to see all of our country do well and we do have to help Michigan in the same way that we help areas ravaged by natural disaster, because its in the country's best interest to do so... unfortunately, IMHO, the gov't should have intervened years - maybe decades ago - to steer the car industry in the right direction and enforce a level playing field from the standpoint of compensation and cost management - and Detroit/Michigan/the industrial Midwest would be in a much stronger position today than it is.

    I don't think people would be nearly as opposed to gov't intervention in industries if it was done as market correcting mechanism way BEFORE the industries' problems hit the crisis mode. That's why people are pizzed - because it became a crisis, the gov't knew (somewhat, like they did with the banks) and nothing was done that was likely a LOT less costly to the taxpayer earlier on to avert the crisis. Think of it as preventative care/annual checkup for economic matters just like when we visit the doc for an annual physical.


    I disagree strongly with this statement on the principal that I don't want the government involved at all in industry.  I've got a few thoughts here.
    1.) Why should the automotive industry's course have been changed years ago when the auto manufacturers were profitable?  Just because you don't like SUV's doesn't mean that there was a large segment of the population who did.  If the government is to get involved in every industry that *might* go bad in the future, which ones will they stay out of. 
    2.) What is the guarantee that the government gets the redirection right, this time or several decades ago.  I'm sure you can find just as many scrapped/abandoned/failed government programs as failed businesses.
    3.) I don't think any corporation can succeed when the powers at the top, which would be the government in your example, change the concept of what they do every 4 or 8 years.  Would the previous administration have handled these situations the same as the current one; will the future administration?

    Please keep the government out of our affairs.
    2009-06-01 8:00 PM
    in reply to: #2185964

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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up

    I'm not a financial wiz, and I'm just hanging by a thread trying to keep up with all of this, but what has not been mentioned in any of this post is the effect GMAC had on GM's woes. 

    As I understand it, when GM decided to finance it's own vehicles everything was fine but then GMAC ventured into some of the same territory that other financial institutions did, such as housing loans.  As the house of cards fell and banks could no longer get credit to operate, GMAC got caught up just like the rest.

    If my info is correct, and please correct me if I'm wrong, this is another example of a lender getting off into risky territory to turn a quick buck and got caught with its pants down...and of course helped take down a company in GM that was shakey to begin with.

    2009-06-01 8:55 PM
    in reply to: #2185964

    Extreme Veteran
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    OK.. i'm going to say the one thing noone else is willing to say.. I'm going to get a bucket load of crap for saying what I'm about to say .. I'll be called un-American, anti this or that .. hateful, spiteful things, but these things need to be said and I for one am sick of the pandering and dancing around the real subject at stake here... so here goes..

    These deals that the big 3 were forced into signing with the UAW were the worst things in the history of modern business.. where else could someone who worked "on the line" for 10+ years retire with FULL BENEFIT PACKAGES UNTIL THEY DIED - AND AT HALF PAY - UNTIL DEATH !!!!!
    35,000 people a year retire for GM, for 50 years.. the same for Ford and a little less at Chrysler..

    in 1996, it was reported that payments GM had to make to that "pension fund" totalled $16 Billion ..

    Nowhere else does ANYONE get a deal like this... nowhere.. no other industry has this kind of "golden parachute" for workers .. not to mention that workers at the companies get paid between $80-$250 per hour to actually work.. where does that money go ? ya cant drink that much beer or smoke that many cigarettes ..

    And now we wonder why these companies are bankrupt ? This has nothing to do with car quality and everything to do with the UAW and the deals they screwed the USA with...
    2009-06-01 9:21 PM
    in reply to: #2187237

    Elite
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    pengy - 2009-06-01 1:34 PM
    eberulf - 2009-06-01 1:28 PM
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM ............ I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO.
    I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration.
    You don't wait for deflation to happen. You preempt it. There was/is a real fear of deflation and the Fed took action on it.


    The Fed's actions weren't terribly successful either. I'm a avid reader of Mike "Mish" Shedlocks and he had an excellent article about the real deflation fears we should be watching out for in April.

    Here is Bernanke’s roadmap, and a “point-by-point” list from that speech.

    1. Reduce nominal interest rate to zero. Check. That didn’t work...
    2. Increase the number of dollars in circulation, or credibly threaten to do so. Check. That didn’t work...
    3. Expand the scale of asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets it buys. Check & check. That didn’t work...
    4. Make low-interest-rate loans to banks. Check. That didn’t work...
    5. Cooperate with fiscal authorities to inject more money. Check. That didn’t work...
    6. Lower rates further out along the Treasury term structure. Check. That didn’t work...
    7. Commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Check. That didn’t work...
    8. Begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (bonds maturing within the next two years); enforce interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities at prices consistent with the targeted yields. Check, and check. That didn’t work...
    9. If that proves insufficient, cap yields of Treasury securities at still longer maturities, say three to six years. Check (they’re buying out to 7 years right now.) That didn’t work...
    10. Use its existing authority to operate in the markets for agency debt. Check (in fact, they “own” the agency debt market!) That didn’t work...
    11. Influence yields on privately issued securities. (Note: the Fed used to be restricted in doing that, but not anymore.) Check. That didn’t work...
    12. Offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets deemed eligible as collateral (…Well, I’m still waiting for them to accept bellybutton lint & Beanie Babies, but I’m sure my patience will be rewarded. Besides their “mark-to-maturity” offers will be more than enticing!) Anyway… Check. That didn’t work...
    13. Buy foreign government debt (and although Ben didn’t specifically mention it, let’s not forget those dollar swaps with foreign nations.) Check. That didn’t work...



    Those are all the steps Bernanke said he would take to keep deflation from occurring again in his 2002 speech.
    2009-06-01 9:28 PM
    in reply to: #2188112

    Veteran
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up

    From the NY Times:

    In its bankruptcy petition, G.M. said it had $82.3 billion in assets and $172.8 billion in debts. Its largest creditors were the Wilmington Trust Company, representing a group of bondholders holding $22.8 billion in debts, and affiliates of the United Auto Workers union, representing nearly $20.6 billion in employee obligations.

    So, if GM were able to walk away from UAW obligations they would still hold over $150 billion in debts.  Am I wrong?  If not, I'm not sure how this is all the UAW's fault. 

    Also, where does that $80-250 per hour figure come from?  Fully loaded with health care, pensions, etc. the high number that I've seen reported is closer to $70 per hour.



    2009-06-02 2:38 AM
    in reply to: #2185964

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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    "The one good thing about the GM situation is maybe next time they wont be too big to fail"
    2009-06-02 6:27 AM
    in reply to: #2185964

    Master
    2006
    2000
    Portland, ME
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    The big question I have is the administration says they will only own GM as long as they have to. Obama reiterates almost daily that he does want to run a car company.

    However, what private individual or company for that matter will have the ability to raise the $50 billion or so to buy the company back from the government?

    No one.......errr.......maybe the Saudis......but really no one will be able to make GM private again.

    2009-06-02 6:45 AM
    in reply to: #2188564

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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    Jackemy - 2009-06-02 6:27 AM The big question I have is the administration says they will only own GM as long as they have to. Obama reiterates almost daily that he does want to run a car company.

    However, what private individual or company for that matter will have the ability to raise the $50 billion or so to buy the company back from the government?

    No one.......errr.......maybe the Saudis......but really no one will be able to make GM private again.



    Well GM will buy it back of course because they will be rolling in the cash when their new cars that get 1 billion mpg  start rolling out

    Or we could just write it off since we will probably end up spending more on them AN never see adime back. ( unles of course someone does some creative acounting to make it appear that we do)

    I am curious what happens when Ford joins GM. Will they be up for the same amount of bailout money?

    Edited by Imjin 2009-06-02 6:52 AM
    2009-06-02 8:26 AM
    in reply to: #2188564

    Pro
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up

    Jackemy - 2009-06-02 6:27 AM The big question I have is the administration says they will only own GM as long as they have to. Obama reiterates almost daily that he does want to run a car company.

    However, what private individual or company for that matter will have the ability to raise the $50 billion or so to buy the company back from the government?

    No one.......errr.......maybe the Saudis......but really no one will be able to make GM private again.

    That's the wonderful thing about stock, you don't have to sell it all in one big block.  It's not $50,000,000,000 or $0.  The government can dispose of it's stock holdings in the new company over time, which removes the government from owning a controlling interest in the company.

    2009-06-02 9:50 AM
    in reply to: #2186670

    Champion
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    It's clear what needs to be done.

    The government needs to let GM go broke slowly-- provide time for other companies to spin off and new players to arise, as they eventually will. People are still going to buy cars and eventually they will buy American cars, when new companies-- unconstrained by ridiculous past union and pension agreements-- fill the market gap that GM will leave. But the government should buffer the fall, providing time for these new companies to establish, for the UAW to fall apart, for the (non-unionized) workers to move on to jobs at these new companies or get out of the industry.

    Of course, in the meantime, it's going to cost us all a lot of money to simply let the inevitable play out.



    2009-06-02 10:15 AM
    in reply to: #2188181

    Member
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 9:21 PM

    pengy - 2009-06-01 1:34 PM
    eberulf - 2009-06-01 1:28 PM
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM ............ I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO.
    I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration.
    You don't wait for deflation to happen. You preempt it. There was/is a real fear of deflation and the Fed took action on it.
    The Fed's actions weren't terribly successful either. I'm a avid reader of Mike "Mish" Shedlocks and he had an excellent article about the real deflation fears we should be watching out for in April.




    ---------------------------
    Let's talk in 12 months about which problem is bigger, deflation or inflation. I predict these "cures" for deflation, along with the rampant government spending, will lead to the largest inflation rate in modern US history. I don't know when people lost their fear of inflation, but it is especially brutal on the poor.






    Edited by eberulf 2009-06-02 10:18 AM
    2009-06-02 12:40 PM
    in reply to: #2188997

    Subject: ...
    This user's post has been ignored.
    2009-06-02 1:01 PM
    in reply to: #2189492

    Champion
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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    Spokes - 2009-06-02 12:40 PM

    scoobysdad - 2009-06-02 7:50 AM It's clear what needs to be done. The government needs to let GM go broke slowly-- provide time for other companies to spin off and new players to arise, as they eventually will. People are still going to buy cars and eventually they will buy American cars, when new companies-- unconstrained by ridiculous past union and pension agreements-- fill the market gap that GM will leave. But the government should buffer the fall, providing time for these new companies to establish, for the UAW to fall apart, for the (non-unionized) workers to move on to jobs at these new companies or get out of the industry. Of course, in the meantime, it's going to cost us all a lot of money to simply let the inevitable play out.


    The economic analyses that have been supposedly played out by the administration showed that it was ultimately cheaper to bring GM to a soft landing than to let them auger in Steve Austin-style.



    Yeah, but it should be clear from the beginning that there WILL be a landing. This sort of government interference in private enterprise sets a really bad precedent. But then there are so many bad precedents being set I've really lost count.

    2009-06-02 1:22 PM
    in reply to: #2188181

    Houston
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 9:21 PM

    pengy - 2009-06-01 1:34 PM
    eberulf - 2009-06-01 1:28 PM
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM ............ I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO.
    I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration.
    You don't wait for deflation to happen. You preempt it. There was/is a real fear of deflation and the Fed took action on it.


    The Fed's actions weren't terribly successful either. I'm a avid reader of Mike "Mish" Shedlocks and he had an excellent article about the real deflation fears we should be watching out for in April.


    We have yet to experience deflation so I'm not sure I understand how you can claim his steps didn't work. The question you have to ask is what would the economic situation be if Bernake did not take those steps you listed. In that case deflation might have been far more likely or have occurred.

    That isn't to say he has wiped out all worry of deflation, but I'm not exactly sure how his failure to do that means the Fed was not successful.

    Or am I overlooking something?
    2009-06-02 1:39 PM
    in reply to: #2188772

    Master
    2006
    2000
    Portland, ME
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    coredump - 2009-06-02 8:26 AM

    Jackemy - 2009-06-02 6:27 AM The big question I have is the administration says they will only own GM as long as they have to. Obama reiterates almost daily that he does want to run a car company.

    However, what private individual or company for that matter will have the ability to raise the $50 billion or so to buy the company back from the government?

    No one.......errr.......maybe the Saudis......but really no one will be able to make GM private again.

    That's the wonderful thing about stock, you don't have to sell it all in one big block.  It's not $50,000,000,000 or $0.  The government can dispose of it's stock holdings in the new company over time, which removes the government from owning a controlling interest in the company.



    You don't really believe that do you? It's not like buying shares at $1,000 clips on Ameritrade.

    Has it been pointed out that the government paid $50 billion for 60% share of GM which implies that GM is worth $83 billion. The most GM was ever valued in history was $52 billion.

    Current bond values places GM at $25 billion. So the government overpaid (or paid off) the UAW to the tune of $35 billion.

    Do you really think an investment group is going to walk into that mess where it has already been demostrated that first position bond holders have not contractual rights?

    Edited by Jackemy 2009-06-02 1:40 PM


    2009-06-02 3:38 PM
    in reply to: #2189639

    Elite
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    Boise
    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    pengy - 2009-06-02 12:22 PM
    JoshR - 2009-06-01 9:21 PM pengy - 2009-06-01 1:34 PM eberulf - 2009-06-01 1:28 PM JoshR - 2009-06-01 11:46 AM ............ I don't think the inflation risk is going to be there for several years to come personally. With the amount of jobs we are shedding deflation is a bigger concern IMO. I find it hard to believe the world's largest debtor nation has any real problem with deflation as long as it can print its own money. If it happens, it will be very short in duration. You don't wait for deflation to happen. You preempt it. There was/is a real fear of deflation and the Fed took action on it. The Fed's actions weren't terribly successful either. I'm a avid reader of Mike "Mish" Shedlocks and he had an excellent article about the real deflation fears we should be watching out for in April.
    We have yet to experience deflation so I'm not sure I understand how you can claim his steps didn't work. The question you have to ask is what would the economic situation be if Bernake did not take those steps you listed. In that case deflation might have been far more likely or have occurred. That isn't to say he has wiped out all worry of deflation, but I'm not exactly sure how his failure to do that means the Fed was not successful. Or am I overlooking something?



    Well technically October, November, December and March all had slightly negative price levels. A good chunk of that was due to energy but even looking at the core CPI we had 0.0 several times and under .3 for the last 7 months. I still think the amount of jobs the economy is shedding is going to lead to even more deflation pressure as well.
    2009-06-02 5:02 PM
    in reply to: #2189492

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    Subject: RE: Now that GM is floating belly up
    Spokes - 2009-06-02 12:40 PM
    scoobysdad - 2009-06-02 7:50 AM It's clear what needs to be done. The government needs to let GM go broke slowly-- provide time for other companies to spin off and new players to arise, as they eventually will. People are still going to buy cars and eventually they will buy American cars, when new companies-- unconstrained by ridiculous past union and pension agreements-- fill the market gap that GM will leave. But the government should buffer the fall, providing time for these new companies to establish, for the UAW to fall apart, for the (non-unionized) workers to move on to jobs at these new companies or get out of the industry. Of course, in the meantime, it's going to cost us all a lot of money to simply let the inevitable play out.


    The economic analyses that have been supposedly played out by the administration showed that it was ultimately cheaper to bring GM to a soft landing than to let them auger in Steve Austin-style.


    LOL now theres a reference I never expected to hear
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