General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Help me predict my marathon time. Rss Feed  
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2009-08-04 9:43 PM

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Subject: Help me predict my marathon time.
Based on just this information.

I just raced my first HIM a few weeks ago in 5:08:48 and my run split was 1:45:55.

I am NOT looking for an exact science but just wondering if doubling my run time would be a safe bet?

Thanks in advance. 


2009-08-04 9:47 PM
in reply to: #2328574

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
Impossible to tell without knowing what kind of training you have done, and plan on doing in advanc of your marathon. If you're running 50-60mpw on a proven plan with varying and graduated intensities, yeah, you could double your time.

If you're running less than 20mpw on the flying-by-the-seat-of-your-pants plan, not so much.
2009-08-04 9:59 PM
in reply to: #2328574

Master
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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.

Tough to say without your training, but this is my nonprofessional rough guesstimate based on what I've read and seen many others accomplish:

1st marathon, <40mpw: HM x 2, add 30-45 minutes. Add more if you've only run a few 20+ milers in training or had some inconsistent weeks.

Non-rookie marathon, 40-50mpw: HM x 2, add 20-30 minutes.

Non-rookie marathon 60-80mpw: HM x 2 + 10 minutes on a fast course. This is pretty aggressive for most, and is the formula used on the Mcmillan calculator page.

mpw=miles per week, and assumes you're doing the vast majority of weeks at that volume

EDIT: Woops, didn't see that you were using a HIM (not HM) time. That I can't comment about - haven't seen enough folks comparing the 2 to make a good judgment. 



Edited by agarose2000 2009-08-04 10:10 PM
2009-08-04 10:00 PM
in reply to: #2328574

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.

Well, if you believe in the McMillan calculator and assume that your 1:46 HIM run translates roughly to something like a 1:35 standalone half mary, then your half iron run would predict around a 3:30 or better marathon.

That predictor doesn't work for me (1:48 HIM run last summer = 3:42 marathon this spring), but YMMV...

2009-08-04 10:03 PM
in reply to: #2328600

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
agarose2000 - 2009-08-04 9:59 PM

Tough to say without your training, but this is my nonprofessional rough guesstimate based on what I've read and seen many others accomplish:

1st marathon, <40mpw: HM x 2, add 30-45 minutes. Add more if you've only run a few 20+ milers in training or had some inconsistent weeks.

Non-rookie marathon, 40-50mpw: HM x 2, add 20-30 minutes.

Non-rookie marathon 60-80mpw: HM x 2 + 10 minutes on a fast course. This is pretty aggressive for most, and is the formula used on the Mcmillan calculator page.

mpw=miles per week, and assumes you're doing the vast majority of weeks at that volume



nah, didn't work for me either....

2009-08-05 5:12 AM
in reply to: #2328574

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
sub 3' 20" with some training


2009-08-05 5:22 AM
in reply to: #2328574

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.

Try doing the Yasso 800s

http://www.runnersworld.com/article/0,7120,s6-238-244-255-624-0,00.html

 

2009-08-05 5:58 AM
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2009-08-05 6:30 AM
in reply to: #2328574

Fishers, IN
Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
How many runs have you completed in the last two months that were 15 miles or greater?  With a 1:45 in a HIM, I would imagine you will be at least around 3:30 if you run one at least three long runs in the last 6 weeks leading to the marathon.  Pretty good chance you'd go 3:15-3:20.  Of course that is assuming you hydrate and take on carbs throughout the race.  If you have time, I would get in a standalone 10K or better 15K to predict.
2009-08-05 7:34 AM
in reply to: #2328574

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
Derek1984 - 2009-08-04 10:43 PM Based on just this information.

I just raced my first HIM a few weeks ago in 5:08:48 and my run split was 1:45:55.

I am NOT looking for an exact science but just wondering if doubling my run time would be a safe bet?

Thanks in advance. 


lots of predictor tables out there....
http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/mcmillanrunningcalculator.htm

remember all predictors assume you are hitting appropriate volume to hit the prediction.  not sure what mcmillian assumes, but for a marathon, my guess is anywhere between 50-70 MPW, which is a PEAK, not consistant every week.  this numebr could be less if you are swimming and biking as the cross-training helps, but not too much.  these calculators also assume you are hitting this peak milage a certain number of weeks, maybe 3 times or maybe 5 times, throughout marathon prep....again, not sure what mcmillion assumes in the calculation. 

I have found this calculator to be dead on, plus or minus 2-3%.
2009-08-05 7:40 AM
in reply to: #2328574

Bob
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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.

I'll lay $10 on a 3:31:45 if you take the first 1/2 of the mary out easy and gradually build the second 1/2. I will warn you that people in marathon's don't like to talk much after 20 miles or so. That could affect your finish time if you are a talker.

There is absolutely no scientific formula for coming up with 3:31:45. I just thought we could start laying down bets.



2009-08-05 8:27 AM
in reply to: #2328574

Coach
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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
Derek1984 - 2009-08-04 9:43 PM Based on just this information.

I just raced my first HIM a few weeks ago in 5:08:48 and my run split was 1:45:55.

I am NOT looking for an exact science but just wondering if doubling my run time would be a safe bet?

Thanks in advance. 
If I knew you were a great runner, the course was accuarte and you ran your HIM 13.1 mi run @ your marathon pace then I would say yes. The problem is that I don't know that and using the run result from a triathlon you'll have to assume a bunch of stuff that can throw the estimate off. You have to consider your swim/bike/run fitness, if you paced correctly, if you fueled properly, if the course was measured correctly, if your run performance was adequate giving yout stand alone run times, etc.

Instead of trying to guess your marathon time with bad information why don't you make things simple for you and just run a 10K and then use the result; that will give you a better estimate of your true potential. Using the calculators above are good and all as long as you provide good data, entering the result of a traithlon run leg is not optimal unless you are a great runner and know exactly how close of your open run tims you performed at the triathlon.
2009-08-05 9:01 AM
in reply to: #2328843

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
PennState - 2009-08-05 5:58 AM
hip82 - 2009-08-05 6:22 AM

Try doing the Yasso 800s

http://www.runnersworld.com/article/0,7120,s6-238-244-255-624-0,00.html

 



Actually those are pretty accurate predictors... tough too!



Beat me to it! My mom tried these to gauge her time for her last marathon and it was almost exact!

2009-08-05 10:51 AM
in reply to: #2328991

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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
rstocks3 - 2009-08-05 8:40 AM

I'll lay $10 on a 3:31:45 if you take the first 1/2 of the mary out easy and gradually build the second 1/2. I will warn you that people in marathon's don't like to talk much after 20 miles or so. That could affect your finish time if you are a talker.

There is absolutely no scientific formula for coming up with 3:31:45. I just thought we could start laying down bets.



I like Bob's predition with 3:31:45.  I will see if I can navigate the Rochester NY Marathon in September to help him win that $10.  I will try to repost to this and let people know what I actually ran. 
2009-08-05 11:12 AM
in reply to: #2328574

Expert
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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
This may add some insight (or cloud the pool, who knows)...

I ran my first half-marathon in November 2007.  Rather hilly course, 1:37:45, on a max of about 35 mpw.  This was a strong effort, but I hadn't really become a runner yet.

March 2008, I ran my first marathon, a hilly, off-road event.  Went 3:55, training up to 40-50 mpw (was also beginning HIM training).

May 2008, first HIM.  My run split was 2:08 (I overcooked the bike), with a 5:44 overall.

Also May 2008, went 19:48 in a local hilly 5k.  McMillan said this would be close to a BQ-marathon equivalent.

October 2008, one week before the marathon, I did a 10-mile flat course race, and went 1:09:30.  McMillan said that time would be close to a BQ marathon.

November 2008, second marathon, largely on the same course as that 2007 half-mary.  Went 3:26, blowing up at mile 21.  Was on pace for a 3:15.

March 2009, third marathon, Shamrock at Virginia Beach.  Followed Pfitz-Douglas 55/18 plan, and went 3:13:43 on a flat fast course, fading a little near the end, but held it together.

So, all that said, McMillan predicted a BQ-time based on my 5k and my 10-miler.  It was up to me to do the rest based on a strong plan, sufficient rest, and proper nutrition.  I think I ran my easy runs too hard, but I definitely ran my hard runs to the plan and stuck with it. 

I wouldn't necessarily double a half-mary or HIM run time.  Too many other variables to even go off of.  I agree with some others; double it, and add 30 minutes or so.

Most importantly, the first marathon won't really be about the time in my opinion.  Mine wasn't.  It was about the experience, one I'll NEVER forget.

2009-08-05 1:44 PM
in reply to: #2329191

Fishers, IN
Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
Yasso's are a bit over rated.  I have seen far too many people crash and burn taking it out at what they could complete a set of Yasso's in.  They generally lacked the stamina and when they blow up they blow up (one friend thought he could go under 3hrs and barely managed 4hours).  I think Yasso's tell more about the speed you are capable of, but only if accompanied by sufficient endurance (long runs at reasonable pace).  Frankly, this is similar to using the McMillan calculators etc.  They assume you have the commensurate stamina/endurance.  You really need the long runs or your shorter predictor races or your Yasso's will not be very predictive.


2009-08-05 2:22 PM
in reply to: #2328574

Elite
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Subject: RE: Help me predict my marathon time.
My run split for my first HIM was 1:56.  My first mary was 3:33.

Do with that as you will.  Or not.
2009-08-06 1:53 PM
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2009-08-06 1:57 PM
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General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Help me predict my marathon time. Rss Feed