2010 Tour De France - Predictions

mmm Cadel and Basso probably did too much in the Giro so i cant go for them unfortunately, nor sammy sanchez with all his crashes. Im gonna go with 1 and 2 from last year

1st contador
2nd Andy Schleck
3rd is hard I could see Frank Schleck, Armstrong, or 1 of the men i eliminated including Vino if i had to pick 1 id say Cadel.

Tough call---good field!!!

You can't really go wrong though with Contador and at least one of the Shleck brothers on the podium (Saxobank looks VERY solid as a team!).  Can Wiggins have a strong showing this year??  Seems like everyone has been waiting for his to have a breakthrough race this year...  Vino's looked strong but is he riding for Contador to his own demise?  Man I can hardly wait!!

A guy I work with is trying to start a pool---pick each stage winner and then the jersey's and the overall team winner---all picked before the start!

HTC-Columbia have just finalised their team for this year's Tour:

Mark Cavendish, Bernhard Eisel, Bert Grabsch, Adam Hansen, Tony Martin, Maxime Monfort, Mark Renshaw, Michael Rogers and Kanstantsin Sivtsov.

Looks like they will be chasing Green....

Quckstep have also finalised their team for the Tour:

Carlos Barredo, Tom Boonen, Sylvain Chavanel, Dries Devenyns, Kevin De Weert, Jerome Pineau, Kevin Seeldrayers, Jurgen Van de Walle, and Maarten Wynants.

That team is stacked around Boonen but with some knee problems there is some doubt over Tommeke's chances.

And another...

Euskaltel Eusladi:
Inaki Isasi, Juanjo Oroz, Alan Perez, Ruben Perez, Samuel Sanchez, Egoi Martinez, Amets Txurruka, Ivan Velasco, Gorka Verdugo

Yeah, Kim Kirchen is now out of the induced Coma. It appears he has had a heart condition for a while now. Hopefully he is getting the treatment he needs and makes a full recovery.

The betting I have for the Outright Win is:

A. Contador - $1.60

A. Schleck - $6.50

L. Armstrong - $10.00

C. Evans - $17.00

I. Basso - $21.00

B. Wiggins - $21.00

D. Menchov - $29.00


Looks like Alberto is almost unbackable with daylight second...

So HTC-Columbia left off Andrei Greipal?  Smart move to keep any friction off of Cav for 3 weeks.  Weren't they having words?

ya pretty heavy for a bit too. insulting each others performance this year greatly, greipal is gone after this year for sure.

Looks like Greipel will be heading to Omega-Pharma Lotto. Apparently they are in negotiations and are close to a deal.

I cannot wait to see Greipel head-to-head with Cavendish in a sprint finish. I would suggest to the peloton that they all stay clear if those two are side-by-side....

Man, Saxo Bank are going to smoke the TTT this year in the TDF!

The top three riders in the Danish National TT Champs were Saxo Bank riders, The top two riders in the Luxemborg National TT Chapms were Saxo Bank Riders and the Swedish National TT Champ is, you guessed it, a Saxo Bank rider.

Add this to the World TT Champ and the TTT will hardly contain any 'regular' Saxo Bak jerseys at all!!

Saxo Bank must know how to train TT champs....

No TTT this year, might be the biggest disappointment of the course.

Sounds like Columbia in years past, funny to see their TTT almost everyone was wearing some other kit.

Revised 2010 Tour de France Start list:


AG2R La Mondiale:
BBox Bouygues Telecom:
Cofidis, le Crédit en ligne:

Astana:
• Alberto Contador
• Alexander Vinokourov

BMC RacingTeam
• Alessandro Ballan (ITA)
• Brent Bookwalter (USA)
• Marcus Burghardt (GER)
• Cadel Evans (AUS)
• Mathias Frank (SUI)
• George Hincapie (USA)
• Karsten Kroon (NED)
• Steve Morabito (SUI)
• Mauro Santambrogio (ITA)

Caisse d’Epargne:

Cervelo Test Team
• Xavier Florencio
• Volodimir Gustov
• Heinrich Haussler
• Jeremy Hunt
• Thor Hushovd
• Andreas Klier
• Ignatas Konovalovas
• Brett Lancaster
• Carlos Sastre

Columbia-HTC
• Mark Cavendish (GBR)
• Bernhard Eisel (AUT)
• Bert Grabsch (GER)
• Adam Hansen (AUS)
• Tony Martin (GER)
• Maxime Monfort (BEL)
• Mark Renshaw (AUS)
• Michael Rogers (AUS)
• Kanstantsin Sivtsov (BEL)

Euskaltel-Euskadi
• Samuel Sánchez.
• Egoi Martínez
• Iván Velasco
• Juanjo Oroz
• Alan Pérez
• Rubén Pérez
• Gorka Verdugo
• Amets Txurruka
• Iñaki Isasi

Footon – Servetto
• Giampaolo Cheula
• Alberto Benitez
• Arkaitz Duran
• Iban Mayoz
• Rafael Valls
• Markus Eibegger
• Manuel Cardoso
• Fabio Felline
• Eros Capecchi


Française des Jeux:

Garmin-Transitions:
• Christian Vande-Velde

Katusha
• Pavel Brutt
• Sergey Ivanov
• Joaquim Rodriguez
• Vladimir Karpets
• Robbie McEwen
• Alexander Kolobnev
• Stijn Vandenbergh
• Eduard Vorganov
• Alexandr Pliuschin

Lampre – Farnese:

Liquigas-Doimo:
• Ivan Basso

Milram
• Gerald Ciolek,
• Johannes Frohlinger,
• Linus Gerdemann,
• Roger Kluge,
• Christian Knees,
• Luke Roberts,
• Thomas Rohregger,
• Niki Terpstra,
• Fabian Wegmann.

Omega Pharma-Lotto
• Mario Aerts
• Francis De Greef
• Mickaël Delage
• Sebastian Lang
• Matthew Lloyd
• Daniel Moreno Fernandel
• Jürgen Roelandts
• Jürgen Van den Broeck
• Charles Wegelius

Quickstep
• Tom Boonen (Bel)
• Carlos Barredo (Spa)
• Sylvain Chavanel (Fra)
• Dries Devenys (Bel)
• Kevin De Weert (Bel)
• Jerome Pineau (Fra)
• Kevin Seeldrayers (Bel)
• Jurgen Van de Walle (Bel)
• Martin Wynants (Bel)

Rabobank
• Denis Menchov
• Robert Gesink
• Oscar Freire
• Lars Boom
• Grischa Niermann
• Koos Moerenhout
• Maarten Tjallingii
• Bram Tankink
• Juan Manuel Garate

RadioShack
• Lance Armstrong
• Andreas Klöden
• Levi Leipheimer
• Chris Horner
• Janez Brajkovic
• Sergio Paulinho
• Yaroslav Popovych
• Gregory Rast
• Dmitriy Muravyev

Saxo Bank
• Fabian Cancellara,
• Andy Schleck
• Fränk Schleck
• Jens Voigt
• Stuart O'Grady
• Matti Breschel
• Chris Anker Sørensen
• Jakob Fuglsang
• Nicki Sørensen

Team Sky
• Bradley Wiggins
• Juan Antonio Flecha
• Edvald Boasson Hagen
• Kurt Asle Arvesen
• Thomas Löfkvist
• Steve Cummings
• Simon Gerrans
• Serge Pauwels
• Michael Barry



Edited by hmaccollum 2010-06-25 9:43 AM

Boonen is out...

http://velonews.competitor.com/2010/06/news/boonen-to-miss-national-championships-and-tour-due-to-tendinitis_123169

Boonen is out?!?!? Bummer! I really like him.

HTC not bringing Greipel is not really a surprise.

It should be a very interesting race as Lance has shown he is coming onto form VERY well. Tough to say where Contador is: He has not been amazing this year yet but I imagine he'll come into form soon. Cadel must be spent from the Giro but I think will still be top 10. Wiggo is such a wild card--I cannot wait to se what he can do. Frnak Schleck is definitely in form but not sure he can last the whole way at the top and Andy has not shown much this year. Take all that with the fact that there are pave in the first week where there will most likely be a crash and it's a lottery if anyone break a wrist or collarbone.

If everyone survives the first week okay, Contador should win it in the Pyrenees with one of the Schlecks in second, probably Andy, and then Lance or Wiggo for third. I'm guessing same podium as last year--yeah, boring guess.

Wow! No Boonen and no Haussler. I am actually more disappointed on hearing about Haussler...

I wonder who will take Boonen's spot - Wolter Weylandt or Allan Davis. I hope Davis gets the nod after last year's fiasco.

 

No Haussler either?!?!?! Damn! I agree. i was more looking forward to following him than Boonen at the Tour. That stinks!

I predict Lance Armstrong winning this race. I think he'll have the best team willing to give it up for him to win. The best support in the race. He wont have the same politics holding him back as last yr.
I'll bet a steak dinner on it at my next race. So if you'll be there bring it! 

Ironman 70.3 Boulder
August 8, 2010
Boulder, Colorado, USA

He's had a tough year but I was really looking forward to seeing him in the TDF but saw the email from Cervelo saying he was out......bummer!!

AC for the Yellow Jersey, the rest I don't care

GC Podium sweep...
1. Armstrong
2. Kloden
3. Leipheimer

I was hoping for Astana to do the same last year, but alas the brilliant tactical maneuver on stage 17 crushed those hopes.

Just curious as to the reasoning for some people picking Armstrong to win?  Not knocking it, just would like to hear the reasoning behind it, other than wanting him to win, plus I like a good TdF discussion 

When he was winning his 7 TdF's he did it by normally winning or being in the top 3 in all the TT's, then have his team deliver him to the final climb's on the serious mountain stages as fresh as possible then he rides away and open up huge time gaps.  After that his team would control the race to keep that gap.

At 38 (lol he's 6 days younger than I am)  I haven't seen him crushing the TT's, more of a top 15-20 guy now, still good but not that top 3, and on the mountains he seems to be able to get in the select groups but when one of them takes off he doesn't have the legs to go with them.  Again still good but not at the top of his game.

Do I think he can podium?  Sure, I think he still has good enough legs to keep him in the top 5 and a good enough mind and team to get him on the bottom step of the podium.  But there just always seems to be something significant separating the 1st and 2nd place at the TdF.