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2011-07-11 2:40 PM

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Subject: Do runners have the advantage?

The "saving legs" thread reminded me of a question I had a while ago watching different races on TV.

I've heard that "you can't win on the swim but you can lose there."

But then you get to the bike portion and naturally the stronger bikers take the lead but they always seem to get caught on the run.

My perception is that stronger runners (if they "don't lose on the swim" and are decent cyclists) will always have the advantage over strong swimmers or even strong cyclists.

So what do you guys think?  While I understand that each leg is important, it just seems that running strong is more "important" than the others.



2011-07-11 2:58 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

Tactically and psychologically, the pursuer has the advantage over the pursued.  That is true as long as the gap to be overcome is within the capability of the pursuer.  So in that sense, the race favors strong runners. 

For the races you see on TV, those guys know what each other is capable of doing.  Macca knows he has to stay within X minutes of someone on the bike if he's going to run him down. 

Now the flip side is someone like Chrissy Wellington, who can get out and build an insurmountable lead on the bike.  She's a good runner, but it's the bike leg that seals her race.  When competitors see her for the last time 10 minutes ahead on the bike at the turnaround, they realize they're racing for 2nd place. 

2011-07-11 3:04 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
I'd say in ITU racing, you'd be right. But there was an old bald guy back in the late 80's and early 90's that tended to win on the bike -- Mike Pigg. An animal on the bike, and a spaz on the run, he won races be building that insurmountable lead in the middle leg. There was a quote from him in a post-race awards banquet: "You guys wouldn't have to run so hard if you'd learn how to ride a bike."
2011-07-11 3:15 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

This is an interesting topic for me. I have limited experience (1 HIM, 1 OLY, 1 Sprint). The swim has hurt my finishing position in all three. I'm good enough on the bike and run (I'm not the fastest in my AG on either) that if I could just be MOP on the swim I would have some solid finishes, at least for me. An average swim would've gotten me a podium in my Sprint yesterday. 

So, in spirit of your thread, I think it depends on the distance, at least in my limited experience.

2011-07-11 3:22 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
A very good, well-trained, physically and mentally conditioned, triathlete has the advantage.
2011-07-11 3:23 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

I'm a strong swimmer and runner... but my biking has forever been the plague of my tri life. I can't seem to get the speed that all the girls can just naturally punch out! However, once I got my bike strength up enough so that I was dropping back very minimally over the course of the bike, then I really improved in triathlon because I was within striking distance once I got off the bike and onto the run...

I think the best athlete is strong in all disciplines so swimming whatever the distance feels easy, biking the distance you can do quickly without expending too much effort, and then just being a touch stronger of a runner... and you've GOT IT. 



2011-07-11 3:29 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
wushunut - 2011-07-11 2:40 PM

The "saving legs" thread reminded me of a question I had a while ago watching different races on TV.

I've heard that "you can't win on the swim but you can lose there."

But then you get to the bike portion and naturally the stronger bikers take the lead but they always seem to get caught on the run.

My perception is that stronger runners (if they "don't lose on the swim" and are decent cyclists) will always have the advantage over strong swimmers or even strong cyclists.

So what do you guys think?  While I understand that each leg is important, it just seems that running strong is more "important" than the others.

It's a very nuanced issue.  As someone already said, in ITU or draft-legal racing it's the run.  You only need to be a good enough cyclist to ride in the pack...and a good enough swimmer to be in that pack and then the strongest runner wins.

But in non-draft racing you will generally spend 50% of the race time cycling.  An advantage earned there is bigger than a run advantage.  Meaning if a cyclist and runner go at it with the cyclist being 15% better on the bike and the runner is 15% better on the run, the cyclist wins.

However, a 32 minute 10k runner is much better at cycling (relatively speaking) than a 50:00 40k cyclist is at running.  So in this case a runner can have an advantage....for this particular reason, I think that it's generally right to say a runner has an advantage.

In this day of relative maturity in the sport there are few great triathletes you can call a 'cyclist' or a 'runner'.  The good ones are pretty evenly strong in the disciplines and it's a little bit of a fallacy to think of the race as 3 disciplines.

 

2011-07-11 3:50 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
No, the strongest triathletes have the advantage; regardless of the distance, at the elite level, the athletes are all very good across all three sports. The only reason that the run seems to be the most important is because it comes last; if the swim or bike came last, it would seem that they were the most important.

Shane
2011-07-11 3:59 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

When I started Tri's I contacted Chris Carmichael (coach for MTB racing) and he told me that biking is the weak link for most triathletes.  Running is where the race is won, assuming the gap is within reach (which differs for everyone). 

In the Tri's I've participated in, I can definitely agree that biking is the weak link. Biking is my strength (MTB racing background) so I smoke on the bike.  Then everyone passes me on the run.  This year I focused on Run and have scored PB's in all my events.  (My MTB racing has gone in the crapper though). 

So I do think strong runners have the advantage if they exit the bike with an attainable gap. 

2011-07-11 4:00 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

usually the strong runners have the advantage but races can also be won on the bike! strong bikers can win and do place on the podium, norman stadler won the world championships off the bike, chris lieto nearly won a few years back. having a strong runs a huge advantage but you have to be solid on the bike. craig alexander isnt a strong biker and though he had the 2nd best marathon last year he lost out on the bike to macca.

its all about balance, perfecting the swim bike run and nutrition are what it takes to win and at least how i view it all are equally important

2011-07-11 4:14 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

I'd have to say the folks out there who are very strong on the bike, as long as they're decent runners, have the advantage.  In any race you can see in the results there's always a couple guys who are pure roadies who build up a massive lead on the bike only to get smoked on the run, sure.  But strong cyclists with good pacing strategies will get off the bike faster and fresher for the run than others.

This is a bit of an extreme example but take someone with a 4 or 4.5 watt/kilo FTP and they can probably ride to a 5:45 bike split on some IM courses at 65% of their threshold.  As long as they've got their nutrition in order they'll be looking mighty fit for their run.  Hell, even with a 5 hour marathon if they're a decent swimmer they're coming in sub-12.



Edited by raflopez 2011-07-11 4:15 PM


2011-07-11 4:48 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
McFuzz - 2011-07-11 2:58 PM

Tactically and psychologically, the pursuer has the advantage over the pursued.  That is true as long as the gap to be overcome is within the capability of the pursuer.  So in that sense, the race favors strong runners. 

For the races you see on TV, those guys know what each other is capable of doing.  Macca knows he has to stay within X minutes of someone on the bike if he's going to run him down. 

Now the flip side is someone like Chrissy Wellington, who can get out and build an insurmountable lead on the bike.  She's a good runner, but it's the bike leg that seals her race.  When competitors see her for the last time 10 minutes ahead on the bike at the turnaround, they realize they're racing for 2nd place. 

Much to your first point she was the pursuer at IMKS 70.3.  She was about 3 minutes behind Leanda Cave heading into the run.  Her strong run allowed her to overtake Leanda about halfway through, ended up winning by 4 minutes.

What I've noticed in local races is a mixture of results.  Some where the winner just blew away the field in the bike and nobody could run him down during the run.  Other cases where a strong cyclist built a pretty good lead but one or two strong runners ran him down.

To the OP, the advantage goes to the most fit, across all 3 disciplines, mainly cycling and running.  As much as I like swimming, I must admit, that major gains for me at the moment will be done via cycling and running more.

2011-07-11 4:51 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
I'm a mop swimmer and a good biker - usually one of the top bike splits. Last year my run wasn't great. This year I focused on improving my swim and run. In three tris this year I've won my AG on the strength of my bike and run. I've been running around 50 mpw, but I'm also in a marathon plan - it's definitely helping, and now I rarely get passed on the run. My swim endurance has improved enough to get out of the water in the top 20% - then it's time to catch those fast swimmers.
2011-07-11 5:14 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
wushunut - 2011-07-11 12:40 PM

I've heard that "you can't win on the swim but you can lose there."

The only reason they say that is because it comes first. It's analogous to saying you can't win a 10k in the first 1k, but you can lose there.

Also, the reason this comes up is because most AG triathletes come from single sport backgrounds...or they are transplants from a single sport...so usually they have one aspect of triathlon that they excel in. But, as you get closer to the front, the more you can't really have any weaknesses.

It's a balance of all three. I've beaten people that have out split me on the bike and I've been beaten by people that I have out split on the run...what matters is how far behind or ahead you are when you start...and that number comes from the other two disciplines....so they all matter.

2011-07-11 5:25 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

In my novice experience I think of it as if everyone were running a time trial format.  As someone stated earlier the bike is 50% of the race time so statistically speaking the stronger biker would have "the advantage" if you took all the psychological factors out of running somebody down or being chased.

However, if you went lance armstrong on the bike, but dog paddled your swim or run/walked your 10k you'd still be slow.  So, I agree with the others that you have to have all three if you want to win.

2011-07-11 5:48 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

It seems like this could be answered mathematically: which leg has the highest correlation between your leg placement and your overall placement?

If running is the most important, then the best runners should tend to win.  If swimming is most important, than the guy placing 1st on the swim should tend to win the event.

I'm going to write a little program to parse results off of sportstats and let that be my answer.  Hopefully I'll post again in a little bit with the results.  Feel free to suggest other approaches or to point out holes in mine while I write the parser.



Edited by AHare 2011-07-11 5:49 PM


2011-07-11 6:08 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
AHare - 2011-07-11 4:48 PM

It seems like this could be answered mathematically: which leg has the highest correlation between your leg placement and your overall placement?

If running is the most important, then the best runners should tend to win.  If swimming is most important, than the guy placing 1st on the swim should tend to win the event.

I'm going to write a little program to parse results off of sportstats and let that be my answer.  Hopefully I'll post again in a little bit with the results.  Feel free to suggest other approaches or to point out holes in mine while I write the parser.

NERD!! But, yes, I'm curious to see the results too. :P

2011-07-11 6:11 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

This is all really interesting.  I'm brand new to the sport so I'm just basing my perception on observations thus far.  Obviously I have much more to be exposed to to.  I'd be interested in seeing those results too!

For me, my bike leg is my strongest... Scratch that. I'm a weak runner. As such I'm trying to incorporate more running into my training. Either way, when starting from the bottom I can only go up.

2011-07-11 6:12 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
Depends how strong you cycling is.

2011-07-11 6:13 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

I say a yes.

I say this because where I live in FL we have a big "winter running season and it seems in the last two years that all the heavy hitters from the running series we have locally that getting into triathlons is the thing to do.  I'm a BMOP swimmer, FOP biker and MFOP runner and I get toasted by the runners on the run.  I mean I'd have to run sub 7's to have a chance at them and my best in a sprint 5k run pace so far is 7:20.  They all are getting stronger on the swim and bike, me I'd have to get stronger all around to be able to race them because I just don't have the running strength they do.

2011-07-11 6:15 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
AHare - 2011-07-11 6:48 PM

It seems like this could be answered mathematically: which leg has the highest correlation between your leg placement and your overall placement?

If running is the most important, then the best runners should tend to win.  If swimming is most important, than the guy placing 1st on the swim should tend to win the event.

I'm going to write a little program to parse results off of sportstats and let that be my answer.  Hopefully I'll post again in a little bit with the results.  Feel free to suggest other approaches or to point out holes in mine while I write the parser.

Yeah, post these results. 

Another thing I've noticed is that strong runners almost always quickly become at least adequate bikers, but the opposite isn't always true.  Sometime it is, Nate is a great example of a cyclist becoming a good runner, but I know plenty of roadies who try and try but just can't run to save their lives.



2011-07-11 6:16 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

bryancd - 2011-07-11 6:12 PM Depends how strong you cycling is.

Based on what I've seen of you BT studs I'd my cycling is squarely BMOP.

2011-07-11 6:18 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
AHare - 2011-07-11 7:48 PM

It seems like this could be answered mathematically: which leg has the highest correlation between your leg placement and your overall placement?

If running is the most important, then the best runners should tend to win.  If swimming is most important, than the guy placing 1st on the swim should tend to win the event.

I'm going to write a little program to parse results off of sportstats and let that be my answer.  Hopefully I'll post again in a little bit with the results.  Feel free to suggest other approaches or to point out holes in mine while I write the parser.



Ask and you shall receive; these are from an Oly distance race a few years ago with just over 500 entrants.







Shane

Edited by gsmacleod 2011-07-11 6:19 PM
2011-07-11 6:23 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?
wbayek - 2011-07-11 5:15 PM
Another thing I've noticed is that strong runners almost always quickly become at least adequate bikers, but the opposite isn't always true. 


Yeah, I came from a running background only started biking in 2006, but at my first few races, my bike split position was actually higher then my run.
2011-07-11 6:41 PM
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Subject: RE: Do runners have the advantage?

Ask and you shall receive; these are from an Oly distance race a few years ago with just 

Awesome.  I just finished parsing data and wasn't looking forward to remembering how to use R (http://www.r-project.org/) for stats analysis.

That fits in with my own judgement: Swimming is next-to-useless, and cycling/running are important, with a slight edge to running.

Also, I second the attitude that running is harder to pick up than cycling.  From a swimming background I quickly picked up cycling, but running fast is hard.  I lose the majority of my positions on the run nowadays.



Edited by AHare 2011-07-11 6:44 PM
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