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2011-08-01 3:13 PM
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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Fred Doucette - 2011-08-01 2:00 PM

newbz - 2011-08-01 3:57 PM yep. coming from ohio it blew me away how much longer in the year it stayed hot/humid. I remember some workouts in mid sept last year when it was still in the high 80s/90s and felt like late july.

Which would completely change overall time/pace goals wouldn't it?

I did a recent HIM where my time was not 'spectacular' but placement was because the heat was crazy that day (90s on the run). If I had set an artifical pace goal on the run it would not have ended so well.



sure would. he could actually go slower and place better


2011-08-01 4:48 PM
in reply to: #3624206

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon

newbz - 2011-08-01 3:57 PM yep. coming from ohio it blew me away how much longer in the year it stayed hot/humid. I remember some workouts in mid sept last year when it was still in the high 80s/90s and felt like late july.

 

I'm definitely considering this and have already done some research on weather, and it looks like the average high temp in early September in Allentown has been around 75 degrees, but this has definitely been a warmer summer than usual. I actually went for a run today at 12:30, and the temp was around 90. My HR was about ten beats higher than in cooler weather, and my pace was about 30 seconds slower. I figure I'll do more mid-day runs just in case the race day temps are warm. Luckily, I'm a teacher and school doesn't start until the end of August, so I can do this for the next few weeks.

I did a half marathon this past fall where temps were in the high 80's and I was 2nd in my AG - the time would have been around 10th the previous year, so I definitely know how heat effects things.

2011-08-01 7:08 PM
in reply to: #3622726

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon

wannabefaster - 2011-07-31 6:46 PM

You are running a ton

My one contribution:  No, he is not running 'a ton'.  Only a triathlete or a hobby-jogger would say that his current mileage is 'a ton'.

I don't want to be discouraging or disparaging to anybody here -- I am well aware that many many people on this site would be thrilled to be able to run 25mpw.  I have been there and I have nothing but the utmost encouragement for those hoping to increase to that level or beyond.  But we are not talking about those people here -- we are talking about someone hoping to go sub 3 in a marathon.  For someone with those ambitions, his current mileage is very far from 'a ton'.  Indeed, his current mileage is his single biggest limiter at the moment.  Experience is probably a close second.

2011-08-01 8:41 PM
in reply to: #3624574

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
agreed with michael here.

I'm honestly not saying one way or the other that nate can/can't do this, but just to keep this going, and add some other info to this,
I was running around the volume you are over the winter/early this year. My 5k/10k/half mary PR's were all a few min faster, and i am sure there is no way off that mileage (granted I was not doing runs over 14-16mi or so) i could run sub 3. Now we are dif people, you may be better at longer stuff, want it more, etc, but in the heat that will be around then (even 75 degrees), i'd have slowed down enough that i'm not sure I could do that.

I'd love to see you do it, you've been training hard, but I'd be careful setting exact time goals and just race the best race you can in sept

2011-08-01 9:45 PM
in reply to: #3622221

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon

Had lunch with Bob Uecker today.  We came up with 3:00:01 Tongue out

2011-08-02 9:15 AM
in reply to: #3624212

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Fred Doucette - 2011-08-01 4:00 PM

newbz - 2011-08-01 3:57 PM yep. coming from ohio it blew me away how much longer in the year it stayed hot/humid. I remember some workouts in mid sept last year when it was still in the high 80s/90s and felt like late july.

Which would completely change overall time/pace goals wouldn't it?

I did a recent HIM where my time was not 'spectacular' but placement was because the heat was crazy that day (90s on the run). If I had set an artifical pace goal on the run it would not have ended so well.

This is huge.  The last couple of years I've done an early season HIM and it's been hot/humid on race day (90's and high humidity by the run) when it hadn't been that warm leading up to the race---lots of folks suffering and my "decent" time put me high in the placement of a competitive race--but NOT near a goal "fast HIM."



2011-08-02 9:25 AM
in reply to: #3624574

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Experior - 2011-08-01 8:08 PM

 Only a triathlete or a hobby-jogger would say that his current mileage is 'a ton'.



I just wanted to quote this, because it makes me laugh, and very few things can accomplish that.
2011-09-19 10:28 AM
in reply to: #3624196

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
JohnnyKay - 2011-08-01 3:55 PM

3:08:47

I will be back to collect my prize.

I'm a bit late in noticing, but just wanted to point out that I was within a minute of Nate's finishing time (congrats on the BQ, BTW).  I am going to start charging for these.

2011-09-19 11:14 AM
in reply to: #3692011

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
JohnnyKay - 2011-09-19 11:28 AM

JohnnyKay - 2011-08-01 3:55 PM

3:08:47

I will be back to collect my prize.

I'm a bit late in noticing, but just wanted to point out that I was within a minute of Nate's finishing time (congrats on the BQ, BTW).  I am going to start charging for these.



*snerk*

Right about the middle of my prediction.

Good job on your first marathon, Nate. You did well, and you're smart enough to recognize what you need to do for next time. And sub 3:10, especially for a first marathon, is quite the accomplishment.
2011-09-19 11:31 AM
in reply to: #3624574

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Experior - 2011-08-01 8:08 PM

wannabefaster - 2011-07-31 6:46 PM

You are running a ton

My one contribution:  No, he is not running 'a ton'.  Only a triathlete or a hobby-jogger would say that his current mileage is 'a ton'.

I don't want to be discouraging or disparaging to anybody here -- I am well aware that many many people on this site would be thrilled to be able to run 25mpw.  I have been there and I have nothing but the utmost encouragement for those hoping to increase to that level or beyond.  But we are not talking about those people here -- we are talking about someone hoping to go sub 3 in a marathon.  For someone with those ambitions, his current mileage is very far from 'a ton'.  Indeed, his current mileage is his single biggest limiter at the moment.  Experience is probably a close second.




Aww man. now my feelings are hurt :-)

From my perspective, he was/is "running a ton." From your logs, he is just scratching the surface.

He was running a lot more than me earlier this year. I was pretty close to the 3 hour mark. Therefore I thought Nate had a legitimate shot. Having a previous marathon in me was the "experience" that helped make the suffering bearable.

I think of myself as a triathlete. When I am concentrating on it, I think of myself as a runner. Hobby-jogger is ok too.

jason


Edited by wannabefaster 2011-09-19 11:32 AM
2011-09-19 11:40 AM
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2011-09-19 12:10 PM
in reply to: #3622221

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon

Just wanted to add a comment that HASN'T been added by the gurus yet for nate:

 

CONGRATS ON A GREAT 1ST MARATHON!!

 

As much as we experienced marathon runners enjoy playing sportscaster, you get the big props for both training hard and then putting it all on the course. Even if it didn't go as you dreamed it would at the end, a BQ on the 1st attempt is a monster run, even if you crashed and burned in the end.

 

It took me 3 'serious' marathons before I got one that I was happy with, running solid from start to end, even with a negative split. And even after that, I'm batting only about a 33% average for hitting my time-target in marathons. There's just so many factors that can change, like heat, hills, even how you feel.

 

I'd highly, highly recommend taking significant off-time from any running racing or intervals whatsoever - like 6 weeks minimum. Pete Pfitzinger highly recommends this in his Advanced Marathoning books, and from direct experience, I strongly agree. You will often feel like a 'rock star' even after your marathon since you've peaked for that race, but you are at extremely high risk for stress fractures and muscle strains for at least 6 weeks after. I ignored this advice after 3 years of high mileage (70+) and stress fractured my foot, which set me back for an entire year runningwise and continuous to plague me every time I ramp up mileage over 35mpw. Rather than planning a rapid assault on the sub-3 right now, I'd spend your energy on bike/run, and save the 2nd marathon assault for another season. Pro marathoners rarely race back to back marathons for this reason.

2011-09-19 12:13 PM
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2011-09-19 1:47 PM
in reply to: #3624574

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Experior - 2011-08-01 6:08 PM

My one contribution:  No, he is not running 'a ton'.  Only a triathlete or a hobby-jogger would say that his current mileage is 'a ton'.

I don't want to be discouraging or disparaging to anybody here -- I am well aware that many many people on this site would be thrilled to be able to run 25mpw.  I have been there and I have nothing but the utmost encouragement for those hoping to increase to that level or beyond.  But we are not talking about those people here -- we are talking about someone hoping to go sub 3 in a marathon.  For someone with those ambitions, his current mileage is very far from 'a ton'.  Indeed, his current mileage is his single biggest limiter at the moment.  Experience is probably a close second.

Jebus, you run a ton. I'm going to print one of your monthly logs, tape it to my fridge, and look at it every time I think "I'm to tired to go for a run, I ran yesterday".

 

 

2011-09-19 2:01 PM
in reply to: #3692239

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Fred Doucette - 2011-09-19 1:13 PM
agarose2000 - 2011-09-19 1:10 PM

Just wanted to add a comment that HASN'T been added by the gurus yet for nate:

 

CONGRATS ON A GREAT 1ST MARATHON!!

 

As much as we experienced marathon runners enjoy playing sportscaster, you get the big props for both training hard and then putting it all on the course. Even if it didn't go as you dreamed it would at the end, a BQ on the 1st attempt is a monster run, even if you crashed and burned in the end.

 

It took me 3 'serious' marathons before I got one that I was happy with, running solid from start to end, even with a negative split. And even after that, I'm batting only about a 33% average for hitting my time-target in marathons. There's just so many factors that can change, like heat, hills, even how you feel.

 

I'd highly, highly recommend taking significant off-time from any running racing or intervals whatsoever - like 6 weeks minimum. Pete Pfitzinger highly recommends this in his Advanced Marathoning books, and from direct experience, I strongly agree. You will often feel like a 'rock star' even after your marathon since you've peaked for that race, but you are at extremely high risk for stress fractures and muscle strains for at least 6 weeks after. I ignored this advice after 3 years of high mileage (70+) and stress fractured my foot, which set me back for an entire year runningwise and continuous to plague me every time I ramp up mileage over 35mpw. Rather than planning a rapid assault on the sub-3 right now, I'd spend your energy on bike/run, and save the 2nd marathon assault for another season. Pro marathoners rarely race back to back marathons for this reason.

good stuff, but just so you know he's racing an ironman in a few weeks....

 

Six to be exact - far from ideal, but with no real time goals except finishing with a smile on my face.

2011-09-19 4:24 PM
in reply to: #3692443

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
natethomas2000 - 2011-09-19 2:01 PM
Fred Doucette - 2011-09-19 1:13 PM
agarose2000 - 2011-09-19 1:10 PM

Just wanted to add a comment that HASN'T been added by the gurus yet for nate:

 

CONGRATS ON A GREAT 1ST MARATHON!!

 

As much as we experienced marathon runners enjoy playing sportscaster, you get the big props for both training hard and then putting it all on the course. Even if it didn't go as you dreamed it would at the end, a BQ on the 1st attempt is a monster run, even if you crashed and burned in the end.

 

It took me 3 'serious' marathons before I got one that I was happy with, running solid from start to end, even with a negative split. And even after that, I'm batting only about a 33% average for hitting my time-target in marathons. There's just so many factors that can change, like heat, hills, even how you feel.

 

I'd highly, highly recommend taking significant off-time from any running racing or intervals whatsoever - like 6 weeks minimum. Pete Pfitzinger highly recommends this in his Advanced Marathoning books, and from direct experience, I strongly agree. You will often feel like a 'rock star' even after your marathon since you've peaked for that race, but you are at extremely high risk for stress fractures and muscle strains for at least 6 weeks after. I ignored this advice after 3 years of high mileage (70+) and stress fractured my foot, which set me back for an entire year runningwise and continuous to plague me every time I ramp up mileage over 35mpw. Rather than planning a rapid assault on the sub-3 right now, I'd spend your energy on bike/run, and save the 2nd marathon assault for another season. Pro marathoners rarely race back to back marathons for this reason.

good stuff, but just so you know he's racing an ironman in a few weeks....

 

Six to be exact - far from ideal, but with no real time goals except finishing with a smile on my face.

No no, that just won't do. Reading these predict Nate's finish time is too much fun.

Much more exciting than the "Can I say that I BONKED when my lack of swimming and biking causes me to walk my first HIM" thread that I would start.



2011-09-19 6:58 PM
in reply to: #3622221

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Coming from a background in both triathlon and marathons, it is very seldom that I see triathletes that are good marathoners. To get good at a marathon you have to run, a lot. I have been running marathons for 3 years and my first year I did around 30-35mpw and finished my first with a 3:08. The next year I trained all year running faster and harder, but with the same mileage and ran 2 marathons at 3:05. Every time I finished a marathon those first 2 years I felt like crap and it really took a lot out of me. This year I pushed the mileage around 50mpw and ran 3 spring marathons all of which I broke 3hr but just barely and it was a struggle. A few months ago I ran another one and this time really ramped up the volume (not speed) pushing 100 mpw. I ran my next marathon in a 2:48 and it was the easiest race I have ever ran. I felt strong, never got tired, only got faster, and negative split the 2nd half by 4 minutes. As bryancd said, you need volume to be able to push that pace. If you are finishing a marathon tired or are hitting the wall you do not have enough volume for the race. To many runners spend hours at the track doing speed work when they are lacking a sufficient base and just wasting their time. When you have a sufficient base running the marathon distance will become easy and no longer taxing and this is the point where speed work will become effective. I am to the point now where the marathon distance is easy and I feel like I can go out and run 26.2 miles on any given day, but it has taken a whole year of increasing my volume to get there. If you want to be a good marathoner you can't be training on the bike and pool you need to be running. Can you run a < 3:00hr marathon with the miles you are putting in....maybe, but it is going to be hard, you are going to be in a lot of pain afterwards, and the potential for injury is high. Good luck.
2011-09-19 7:47 PM
in reply to: #3692167

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Fred Doucette - 2011-09-19 12:40 PM
colinphillips - 2011-08-01 11:42 AM
Fred Doucette - 2011-08-01 9:18 AM

Otherwise I would second Scout's predictions, likely 3:10-3:15.

I think this is on the harsh side. Nate is in better shape than I was when I BQd a few years back in 3:07, and his training is a *lot* more solid. 

The key, as others have said, is to avoid crashing and burning (... and we don't want to hear another story about how your Garmin said that you ran 0.153 miles long; it doesn't matter). If you want to throw caution to the winds and try for a really fast time, at the risk of blowing up, then go for it with the 6:42 plan. But if beating 3:00 (and having any interest in doing another marathon) is your main goal, then I'd suggest to set out only a little below 3:00 pace, and to try to hang on.

still think my prediction was on the 'harsh' side? Lol.

Yeah, way too harsh. You were like 38 seconds off! If you round down to the nearest 10 minutes, then I was right on the money.

Anyway, I still think Nate has a 3:00 in him in the near future. (I'm counting on you, Nate, ok.)

2011-09-19 7:53 PM
in reply to: #3692410

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Subject: RE: Sub 3:00 Marathon
Khyron - 2011-09-19 2:47 PM
Experior - 2011-08-01 6:08 PM

My one contribution:  No, he is not running 'a ton'.  Only a triathlete or a hobby-jogger would say that his current mileage is 'a ton'.

I don't want to be discouraging or disparaging to anybody here -- I am well aware that many many people on this site would be thrilled to be able to run 25mpw.  I have been there and I have nothing but the utmost encouragement for those hoping to increase to that level or beyond.  But we are not talking about those people here -- we are talking about someone hoping to go sub 3 in a marathon.  For someone with those ambitions, his current mileage is very far from 'a ton'.  Indeed, his current mileage is his single biggest limiter at the moment.  Experience is probably a close second.

Jebus, you run a ton. I'm going to print one of your monthly logs, tape it to my fridge, and look at it every time I think "I'm to tired to go for a run, I ran yesterday". 

I appreciate the complimentary thoughts, but I put myself in the same category as Nate.  I was run-focused and ran 70-90 miles for several weeks this summer, and 100+ for a few weeks, but I'm coming down off of that run volume now out of the necessity of preparing for a tri.

And even THAT mileage is not 'a ton' by runners' standards.  Again, I don't mean to denigrate ANYBODY's training, here.  My point was just that we should keep it in perspective.  What we, as triathletes, consider to be 'a lot' of running (or biking, or swimming) is, by the standards of dedicated single-sport athletes, not so much.

On the other hand, what we DO (or at least CAN DO) a lot of is training for triathlon!  And that is great fun in itself.

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