Subject: RE: Kona Lottery - WATFO? nope. me and friends were 0-3. oh well. it would be awesome, but even though i'll never qualify, it would be odd to be there without 'earning' it.
i don't know what the odds were this year, but i read somewhere last year that there were 4000 lottery entrants. if that is true and you count all 200 spots the same you get a 1-20 shot.
all 200 slots aren't the same though. 50 are for international and 100 are for passport members (people who pay an extra $50 ). it didn't mention the breakdown of the 4,000 entrants so i don't know how that effects your odds. i would also guess that there are more lottery entrants now than ever so 4,000 might be low.
i also suspect that it may not exactly be an even drawing. there are a lot of 'what did you overcome to get here?' questions on the application that lead you to believe it may be a subjective drawing. i could be 100% wrong on that though.
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