450+ miles...Time to buy new shoes?

When my shoes are shot, I start getting knee and back pain.  With my old Asics, this was around 300 miles.  With the Saucony Kinvaras I use now, it's more like 250.

Well ... you shouldn't have any pain. So on that, yeah, I'd definitely get another pair. That said, mileage is very individual. (And for me, it has changed throughout my running career).

Yup. If the shoe fits, it doesn't need breaking in, but as others said, it's a good idea to wear them for a run or two just to see if there are any issues.

I get new ones when the soles are worn out or the fabric is tearing. I do not prescribe to the shoe companies theory that you need new shoes every xxx amount of miles. I wear a neutral shoe that has very little cushioning to begin with. Mine go to around 1000-1200 miles before the soles are almost worn through, then they go in the garbage.

I do keep a relatively lower mile shoe for racing only because I do not want my high milage shoe falling apart while I am in a race. For what it is worth I run in Zoots.

Except that there is zero evidence showing that purchasing new shoes reduces wear and tear in the knees and hips, or correlates at all to hip replacements or knee replacements. Nor does the amount you run unless you've already had a surgery in that area or have known pre-existing disease.

Off topic a bit, but I found it interesting this week that my insurance wouldn't cover any part of my $250 orthotics, but would pay 20-40 grand for a new knee if I needed it.

Depends on the shoe, you, and your running style.

I've got a pair of Altra Instincts with over 450 miles on them, and so there's no signs of them giving up. I also had a pair of Saucony Kinvaras that were showing signs of the end of their life at less than 300 miles.

Six weeks is plenty of time to make sure the shoes are formed to your feet. You could wait two or three weeks of you prefer.

But the "not much pain" part concerns me. That by itself may be the reason to get new shoes. I'd recommend having (at least) two pair staggered in their life, so that you're getting one new pair when the other is about half-way through.

I'd recommend this as well, and believe it to be a big reason for having multiple shoes. So you have a solid reference for just how worn down the older pair is.

I can feel when I need new shoes (real subjective, right?). That happens anywhere between 250 and 500 miles though, and is highly dependent on how I'm running, where I'm running, if they get wet, etc. etc.

+1 for multiple pairs rotating. I generally find last years model on sale and buy 2-3 at a time. RunnersWarehouse is where it's at, imo.

I don't like to be in a situation where I realize I need something, and I need it NOW.

With that in mind, if I were in your situation, I would buy a new pair of shoes, and start rotating them in.  When your HIM comes, I'd run in whichever pair is feeling better for you.

You may still be able to run in your shoes for a while and you can still do that even once you buy another pair.

I also strongly agree with the recommendation of having multiple pairs of shoes and rotate.  I also try to have a new pair sitting in the closet.  Wait until you can get them on sale and buy 2-3 pairs at a time.  Works for me anyway.

Seeing more posts about having multiple shoes for rotation, but not sure that really does much if their mileage isn't staggered. That was why I pulled this part specifically.

I think that must change depending on insurance.  Mine completely covered $300 orthotics but had trouble getting it to cover a hip arthroscopy.  

And the multiple shoes for rotation thing- when I was just a runner I used to hear this.  I was told that it's because if you're running twice a day, it can take more than then the hours you have between runs for the cushioned part of the sole of the shoe to recover.  

Agreed.  Definitely stagger them. Another benefit of having two pairs is that if you run in the rain one day you have more time for them to air dry while you run in the other pair.  Of course DanielG's approach with the fan solves this problem too.