Best time of year for bike deals?

I'll be completely honest.  I MY experience (but I usually have to order mine), there is no good time.  They just don't lower the price since there isn't that much of a margin on them anyway.

If there is any time, it would be when the new models come in which may drive some of the prices of the leftover old models down.  Someone else can chime in, but I don't think you are going to see any screaming deals unless you get lucky.  Maybe 10% off?

Winter.

Bike sales are generally slowe due to the weather and bike shops will want to make room for all the new year models when sales pick up in spring.

I made this graphic a few years ago for a dealer presentation on the "Lifespan of a Bicycle Price"

So you never see even more than a 20% discount (from the intro price).  Granted, for the $3500 bike, that's significant.  But don't look for %50 off clearance bikes or anything.

I can't even consider this because most shops don't carry a 61cm TT bike or 63cm road bike so I have to order and wait in just about every case.  If there is any leftover stock, it seems to be really small sizes (never any really large sizes )

I think Tom's chart is a good starting point.  However, his chart assumes that the supply of new model bikes is enough to meet the demand.  Some manufacturers are having a hard time keeping up with demand, so shops may not be willing to drop the price as much on older models.

For example, if there is a high demand on 2013 cervelo P2s that they are on back order...why is an LBS going to severely discount any 2012 P2s they currently have in stock.  They are essentially the same bike, and as a retailer, they are likely going to offer you the 2012 P2 at MSRP (or maybe a slight discount), or you have the option of going on the waiting list and possibly getting your 2013 P2 in a couple months.

"Thanks! Nice graphic! He needs a big bike (rides an XL Santa Cruz mtn bike). Will those be harder to come by in the fall?"

It will depend on how your local dealer buys. Most experienced dealers go "narrow and deep" in core frame sizes. For brands like Cervelo their 51cm, 54cm and 56 cm frame sizes would be the sizes good dealers want to be "deep" on in the main season.

A good Cervelo dealer starts an April Saturday morning with two 51 cm P2's, three 54 cm P2's, three 56 cm P2's on the floor at 10 AM and has sold them all by 4:00 PM that day, then needs to restock on Monday for the following weekend.

That same dealer may have one 61cm and one 49 cm frame size in stock, and it could take 3-4 weeks for those 6'2"+ and 5'1" customers to walk through the door.

So, if you are out of the center of the size range you may be better poised to snap up a deal, especially in big metro areas with larger dealers.

I hope that helps.

One note on discounts. Bicycles retailers are running an efficient business if they are netting anything more than 1% net profit after all expenses and taxes. That's right- 1%. It is literally a nickle and dime business. I once wrote in a trade publication "The only thing wrong with the bike business- is bikes." The margin on them is poor and they devalue quickly. They are like fruit rotting on the vine.

Also, the modern consumer has been (unfortunately for the dealer) conditioned to bargain and price shop. Your post is an example. This isn't the consumer's shortcoming, it is the bed the bicycle retailer has made for themselves. It's our fault. We did this to ourselves. In other industries like high end diamond jewelry (Tiffany's, etc.) there is a more cooperative pricing culture to protect margins. While it may seem like the consumer benefits from deep bike discounting- and they do initially- they also suffer when bike shops close (which they have in record numbers in the last 6 years) and service is poor. We read frequent posts about bad experiences on this and other triathlon forums. From the dealer's perspective they can't afford to extend service if they have compromised their margin and sold below cost.

Again- it isn't the responsiblity of the consumer. The consumer's only responsibility is to get the best buying experience they can.

Where I live there is a bike 'show' which is really just a sale where a bunch of LBS' have booths and sell off their old inventory.  We have bought 2 bikes at the fall show and 1 at the spring show.  The discount varies.  I got a previous year entry level Trek road bike for about 40% off and my Felt B12 was nearly 50% but it was in a small frame so there was likely a more limited audience for that. My DH got a Cervelo road bike and discount was only about 20% which is marginal compared to the deals on mine.

If you have access to something like this it would be worth holding off to check out - just get him sized first to see what size of frame he needs

I didn't even think of black friday deals. Getting a new bike (or two) for myself this off season.