First Marathon Coming Up (NYC) - what Pace?

I'm not an experienced marathon runner....and I'm sure you'll get plenty to chime in....but if I was writing what you just wrote, and it made alot of sense to me.....that sentence would cause me some pause. I don't know anyone who did their first marathon and gained ground that last 6 miles.  I'm not saying YOU can't.....but I'm just saying.

Too hard to tell with all your biking mucking it up. That 90k bike ride has to count for some slowness in the run next day. And while it's not the same as run mileage you've probably got better cardio than someone who just did the 30 mpw.

As for strat, I've negative splitted both of mine (by 2 mins) - it's a wiser strat than going out too fast in the first half in which you pay for the mistake over the next 2+ hrs. But I had good half and 10k times to bench off of. If I was you (and you were listening to Pfitzinger) you'd do a hard 10K race 2 weeks out. If you can pull a 41 min, then 3:25-3:35 should be doable on 30mpw if you get lucky and have no bad crowds or gastro issues.

IMO of course.

I'm also doing NYC, so maybe I'll see you out there! With the lower volume you've been doing, I think that 3:45-4:00 may be a decent estimate. NYC will be my 3rd marathon, and no training can prepare you for what those last 6-8 miles feel like after running hard for the first 3/4 of the race, especially with low volume and infrequent running. It's better to run more frequently, than to rely on one long run per week to get up your mileage.

Good luck! I hope I'm wrong, and you kill it.

I wouldn't count on negative splitting.  If you want to go for 3:30: You will be slower to start with crowds, but the excitement of the race and feeling fresh from your taper you will probably make up the time.  I would try to pace the first 10 miles at around 7:45.  Then despite how good you feel, bring it to 8:00 for the next 10.  You may have a good day, and be able to hold the pace in the last 6.2, but 30 mpw is not alot of volume and I would expect the last few miles to be a struggle.  You will have about 160 seconds to spare over the last 6.2 if you kept pace as above, so you can average 8:25 and still come in at 3:30.   For 3:40, you can add 22 seconds to the paces above.

As other posters have said, the crowds can throw you off, but it doesn't hurt to have a plan.  And make sure you have your hydration/nutrition plan down, since you haven't done a marathon before, it is a LONG race and its easy to run out of fuel.

Good luck.

If you want to try for your challenge goal then, sure, it sounds OK.  Also sounds pretty aggressive to me and my prediction is well over 3:45 if you try it.  But it's not completely crazy, so prove me wrong.

FWIW, I ran a 3:31 in my first marathon (Philly).  Did it with a crazy negative split, but was glad I choose that approach for my first.  You can check my RR, if you like.  No idea how we'd compare on natural ability, but I think I ran more in my training than you did.  But it was also just after my my first full year of running.

I've seen a lot of suggestions for marathon pacing.  This is a new one for me.  I'd HIGHLY advise against it.

This is loosley based off of Myers pace tables, I was going off of the top of my head.  The best pace for experienced marathoners is an even pace, but most runners new to the distance usually will inevitably slow down. I was NOT recommending to go out too fast. Which is dumb. For a 3:30:

Miles 0-12 completed in 3.756% of finish time- 7:53min/mi
Miles 12-18 completed in 3.8086% of finish time -8:00 min/mi
Miles 18-23 completed in 3.8725% of finish time- 8:08 min/mi
Miles 23-26.2 completed in 3.95% of finish time- 8:18 min/mi

That kind of pacing is geared for a runner who is prepared to go out strong and try to hold on.  And not worried about 'blowing up'.  Not your typical first time marathon runner.

Yeah, it's a tough course, it's your first marathon and you have some sub-optimal training.

I still think it's not a bad idea to have a goal. I don't think that just because it's your first marathon your only goal has to be "just to finish." But I'd encourage you to keep an open mind (which it sounds like you have) and not be too upset if you don't meet your goal. No biggie.

Maybe you can do something like an A, B and C goal and re-evaluate as you run.

Nothing good ever came from starting too fast so I would encourage you to start out at a more conservative pace than you think you might need to.

All that being said, I think you have the right idea. It sounds like you are well aware of the flaws in your training coming into this and that with a little bit more structure in your plan you will be able to kick some azz in marathons to come.

Have fun!

For your first full Marathon, I would suggest starting very slow. You probably will have to anyway, with the crowds. You will be glad later, when you are passing people a lot more than being passed. Also, having the mental mind set that "I started slow and I have plenty left in the tank" will serve you well ...IMHO.

I think it really comes down to what you want to do.  If you want to finish in 3:30, I really don't think if you start out too slow you will be able to make up the time.  My suggestion was based partly on that you ran 7:50 for mile 10-20 of your last training run, and said you had some left in the tank.  And that is mid training with no taper, you can be faster on race day and not blow up.  I do stand by my suggested pacing if you really want to go for 3:30, but, it is totally a risk. You can blow up at mile 20 and finish over 4 hours, if at all. 

If you want to greatly increase your odds of having a good time and having a good race experience go for a more conservative time. If you are willing to potentially DNF, or come in cramping/suffering then go for your challenge goal.  It just depends on how important it is for you.

I did it.  Just sayin'.

Out of curiosity, I went back and looked at my training for my first marathon (all my training is on BT).  On average, I ran much less than the OP in the months leading into the race.  Although I stayed a bit more consistent during the latter stages.  I ran the first 13 at an average pace of 8:16 (first 5 miles at about 8:30) and the final 13.2 at a 7:51 pace.  With a 7:44 avg over the last 6.2.  Don't discount the mental boost you get from speeding up and passing everyone over the second half of the marathon.  If you start to slow down, instead, it becomes mentally much tougher to keep it together.

Not saying the OP can do this.  And I did suffer my first over-use injury immediately following my marathon, so both my build and race pace were definitely pushing things.  And I'm sure one could argue I was capable of running even faster had I paced less conservatively at the beginning.  I am still glad I did not take that path for my first marathon.  It hurt enough doing it this way. 

I don't really disagree at all.  But, for a first timer, I'm not sure running your best race is really a big concern.

Also, FWIW, I negative split Boston while PRing.  Another course not made to be negative split.  Of course, I probably could have ran a couple minutes faster that day.  Regardless, I wouldn't tell people to plan on it. 

I appreciate all the input. I looked at my Garmin and did a little bit more analysis of my last long run (last Sunday).  It looks like I went 8:29/mile pace over the first 10 miles. I then averaged about 7:50/mile on the next 10 but I did see a sharp increase in my average HR right around mile 17 where it went from 144bpm to about 148bpm from mile 17-20 (mile 20 was high on purpose as I knew I only had 0.5 miles left and stepped up the pace) and my pace also slowed down a bit to just under 8:00/mile.  I think that's the first sign of the lack of volume. Let's just say I could hold that pace with that HR+2-3 bpm for another 3 more miles and that leaves a couple of miles that will be the struggle (at that pace) and will have to slow down.

Looks like the prudent thing to do is to start out around 8:15 and just stay there for the first 6 miles or so.  Start ramping up to around 7:55-8:00/mile (faster on downhills/slower on uphills) and then just see how long that lasts.  That'll hopefully get me under 3:40 even if I had to slow down to 9:00/mile pace for the last couple of miles.  If I can keep my HR in the mid 140's until around mile 22-23, then I should be ok.  I'll probably try to race keeping an eye on both pace and HR and will slow down if needed earlier in the race if my HR starts to increase more than expected.

I have a 15-miler scheduled next Sunday and my plan is to run 13 miles at MP.  I will run it right around 7:45-7:50/mile after warm-up and see how my HR behaves (knowing that I will run 10s/mile slower in the race). If I can hold mid 140bpm HR at that pace for 13 miles, I'd feel comfortable that I can run slower and hold it for 20 miles (especially with a taper as I will be doing another 60-mile bike ride the day before the upcoming long run).  If it starts spiking to high 140's and low 150's, I know I have to slow down some more...

 With respect to my goals - C-goal: finish under 4hrs, B-goal: <3:40, A-goal:<3:31

The pace is usually more important for me at the start - as my HR is much lower than my target range during the first few miles so I have to consciously just go by pace as it takes a bit for the HR to get steady so I have to use both pace and HR.  Once I find that steady zone, I notice that I can even relax and keep the same pace (or even slightly faster) and the HR will still drop a few beats.

Definitely wanting to avoid that death march but I figured that you just have to keep the pace and effort managed in the first 20 miles and not getting carried away with all the excitement.