4:59:59?

I'm a bit faster in each event and have 6 months to train for HIM New Orleans; I"m training hard and when I asked about breaking 5 it was "its possible but it'll be tough". I'm gunning for a 4:45. Keep your discipline really high and you can do it!

Looks a strecth, but you never know.  I suggest starting to swim a lot more, ASAP.  You are giving up way too much time there.

I know its a bit of a lofty goal, but thats the right kind of goal for me.  Swim is definitely my weakest leg.  I was planning on swimming 2x/week this winter... for 4-5k total yards, should I do more, knowing I would have to sacrifice bike or run time?

2x/week won't get you much in the way of swim improvements unless you are able to correct a major technique flaw in the process.

I'm "aiming" for the same goal at Honu 70.3.  I have somewhat similar splits for an Oly.  28:XX, 1:02:XX, 47:XX and I know sub 5 will be a stretch.  I've been currently working on my swimming, about 3x/9k per week, but also trying to squeeze in a little more.  I'm also trying to lose about 15 pounds so that could make a huge difference for me *if* I can actually lose that much weight.  I'm not sure if you have that much weight you can lose.

Last year I went 38:XX, 2:39:XX, 1:53:XX for a 5:17:XX.  To go sub 5 I'd likely need 34:XX, 2:32:XX, 1:45:XX.  Not sure I can manage that.

So Sub 5 for me is more of a "if everything goes perfect" goal.  I'd be pretty happy with sub 5:10.

ETA: I have no clue what Florida's course is like, and time goals are largely course dependant...so you may have a better/worse chance than me depending on how your Oly course compares to your HIM.  My Oly course was very fast, and a average difficulty HIM.  So if your Oly course was hard, and have an easy HIM course, you may have a good chance.

3x/wk for 8-9k+ yds.  Either that, or you need to get a lot faster on the bike & run in the next 6 months to offset a really long swim.  The swim is going to be a worthwhile investment for you even if it's not be enough to break 5 in 6mos.  Regardless, you'll have a better idea in 4-5mos.  Start working now and see what happens.

The swim has long been my weakest event. I've improved a lot over the last two years, but still have quite a ways to go.  Maybe this winter is the winter to close the gap between the swim and my bike and run.

Here's the plan I was thinking of using for the winter, with a couple weeks to build into the full volume after two weeks completely off after my last race.  I'm also toying with the idea of moving the rest day to Tuesday instead of Friday.  Around February I was planning to work in some long brick sessions. I haven't decided if I'll try to follow a premade 12 week plan or not.

M: S 1HR      B 1HR      R 0.5HR

T:                 B 1HR      R 0.5HR

W: S 1HR     B 1HR

R:                 B 1HR       R 0.5HR

F:     OFF OR B 1HR

S: LBR

S: LR

So, maybe sub in one additional swim day instead of a bike?

I can't say for sure how the course will be, its a new event, so far it sounds like it should be fast and flat, but I don't quite know how hot and humid it will be, or exactly what to expect on the bike course in terms of road surface or bridges that might add a significant bit of climbing.  The swim, at least is in a river not the ocean.

When were you planning on running?

I'd definately drop a bike day (ETA: maybe even 2 bike days) for another swim day.  Is there any reason you were planning to bike 6x per week?  Unless I'm doing a total bike focus (not swimming an running) I don't really see the benefit of biking 6x per week.  When you're on the bike, you should be going hard.  If you can go hard 6 days in a row...you're probably not going hard enough.  If you're using 2-3 of those 6 days as "easy" days on the bike...then you're likely better off running or swimming instead.

How about something like this:

M: S 1HR                     R 0.5HR

T:                 B 1HR     R 0.5HR

W: S 1HR                    R 0.75-1HR

R:                 B 1HR      R 0.5HR

F:  S 1HR                   

S: B 1-3HR     R 0.5HR

S: R 1-1.5HR

This obviously does not include any scheduled rest days.  I consider both Fri & Mon relatively easier days.  If you need a rest day now and then, try to drop one of those days.  If you need a rest day regularly, then you need to get that 3rd swim somewhere else on the schedule.  The weekday biking should be pretty hard (and the weekend, as well, if it's on the shorter side).  For the run, I would keep it all pretty easy--and it might be too much for you to start, as is.  If so, cut the runs shorter (keep the frequency, if possible) at the start.  Add some extra biking if you have the time/energy until you build the running up.  There are many options.  This is just one that will work.

Last year I went 4:59 at Disney 70.3 in May. If you are from SLC you will struggle to acclimatise that early in the season

Don't underestimate the heat and humidity. It's a killer on the run and the time of day the HIM run occurs it can be brutal.

I think you're off on the run and swim, for sure. You are maybe closer on the bike.

You probably have to do close to a  2:30 bike, 1:45 run and 35 swim + transitions + a few minutes here or there.

I think a 35 swim, without wetsuit is going to take some work. A 2:30 bike is not trivial. Work your position. You need to be very aero. If you are doing 1:05 on 40km you are closer. If you know your FTP, you probably need 200watts therefore an FTP of 250ish.

1:45 run in that type of heat is something like a 1:35 open HM.

I was going to post something kind of long and I agree with Jason above.  

Just follow a plan.  Don't try to re-invent the wheel.  We all think we are special but we are not.  Customizing a plan to that degree unless you are severely overcompensating for fear of injury on the run isn't a well rounded solution.  As you become faster and approach the faster times, you can't try to mask weaknesses and need to address them.  That plan is way lopsided and your swim and run will not be ready.  Remember, you still need to cover 13.1...1 long run and a few filler runs aren't going to cut it.   You'll need to get that bike and run way up from the sprint and oly level.  All biking is quality.  Triathletes don't have time for fluff on the bike.  

edit:  agree w/ above posts.  

I like this schedule alot, although I would probably trade one of those 30 minute runs for a slightly longer (45 min-hour) run.  It would look more like a BarryP style plan to me then.

This is very similar to what I did this year and it seemed to work pretty well.  I'm going to stick to a similar plan for 2013.

On other note, FWIW. My first year of tri I went 2:32 in an Oly. Sounds about where you are. I was a 1:34HM runner and a 25min 1500m pool swimmer. I think this is a bit faster

At the beginning of my second year, with lots of training, especially on the bike, I attempted Florida 70.3 in May. I was coming from a snowy country and doing an early race. I did Jorge's plan and my bike improved a lot. I would suggest this. You can do 4x per week and improve a lot.

I was on track for about a 5:05-5:10 when I lost consciousness at mile 8 or so of the run.

With a lot of work and some luck it is possible, but it will take lots of work.

Dump 2 rides from  your plan and do Joreg's plan. Run at least 1 more, swim 1 more. Try and do another run if you can for 6x.

Honestly, I don't think there is near enough volume in there to be shooting for a sub 5:00:00 goal.  It's to general, with no builds or step back weeks.  That would be a great low volume week but I think a some of your rides need to get in the 5-6 hour range and your runs near 2 hours.  You'd probably do a lot better with a rest day built in there as well and more time spent on workouts during the week.  Runs should almost all be .75-1.0 hour.  I'd say maybe something more like this

M: 1-2hr bike

T:  .75-1hr run/1hr swim

W:1-1.5hr swim

Th:.75-1hr run/1-2hr bike

F: Rest day

Sa: 1hr swim/2-6hr bike

Su:  1-2hr run/1-2 hr bike

Use upper ends of ranges for 2-3 weeks than step back to lower end for 1 week / repeat

There is much wrong in your assessment.  Just to hit a couple, that 'plan' was not intended to be his race-specific prep (and it is only a general outline of time allocation--not a 'plan', per se).  It is something to target over the next 3-4 mos before getting to race-specific work.  Trust me, there is plenty of 'build' one can put into that general framework.  And plenty of work (which is not just volume).  Also, I prefer 'plateaus' rather thasn 'step-backs' most of the time, as the latter is often unnecessary and the former allows the 'build' to continue.  And no offense but, I can guarantee that winter plan can yield sub-5 fitness.

I actually think JohnnyKay is bang on and definitely someone could do sub 5 with the right workouts.

Low run frequency and 6 hour rides for HIM ?

There's not much to assess.   Having those targets are fine, but hitting them and when is probably more important.  It would be hard to guarantee anything from a winter plan.  The race specific plan would be more important.  My point was based on the OP's logs and where he's at now.  IMO being in a winter maintainence mode might not best serve the goal of being sub 5.  It's just my opinion that it's best to start now and stay away from any type of maintainence work.  I think right now it's probably best to get in a lot more volume than that.  I know, for me, your plan would leave me painfully inadaquate on the bike and set up a poor run.  But I'd have to know what the plan is in the build to make that assessment 100% certain.

you're right!  I should have added one more run in there! sorry