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Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? (Page 5)
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 2013-08-23 1:34 PM in reply to: colinphillips |
Extreme Veteran  3025    Maryland |  Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish?Originally posted by colinphillips Originally posted by Fred D Running for the 'non-young' is not something I would ever recommend stopping for long periods of time unless you are injured. Running fitness takes me soooo long to regain after a break that it's just the one you can't let go on hiatus. Currently I'm very much on the brink of not staying with triathlon and just becoming a cyclist.... But if I do stay with triathlon I suspect I will only focus on 2 sports in the winter (swim and run) as I just don't have the free time to do all 3 properly anymore.... Yeah, I hear ya. I'm currently thinking about tris the way that Cavendish or Cancellara would view a grand tour. I'm not going to be a GC contender, but I can have fun trying for 'stage wins'. My sponsors (= rest of life) are happy with that arrangement. I like what you are saying, but I think Cav would not agree haha. |
| 2013-08-23 2:55 PM in reply to: dmiller5 |
Member 163 | Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? Originally posted by dmiller5 Originally posted by RZ0 Originally posted by reecealan This is a timely post. Attached are the results of the top 15 finishers in a local long course tri I participated in Sunday. The top 4 finishers were fairly close together heading into the run. You can see how important the run was here. Only one guy in the top 15 could not run sub 7's (it was a 5 mile run), that was ME! So if I want to compete with these guys I've got to get my run game on. I looked up this tri (Jackson County Long Course 2013). For all 150 participants: Correlation between run and overall: 0.89 Correlation between bike and overall: 0.92 Correlation between swim and overall: 0.75. About what we've seen before. And for the top 15: Run vs. overall is 0.73 Bike vs. overall is 0.66 Swim vs. overall is 0.13. The last correlation is pretty amazing, as it implies there was very little relationship between the swim and the overall finish. In this race there's tremendous potential to gain by improving one's swim, but maybe not so much from the gentleman who posted. He finished second overall in the swim but six minutes out of first overall. (His swim was three minutes faster than the winner's.) To gain all six minutes on the swim alone, his pace would have to fall from 1:38 per 100m to about 1:15 or so. Past the age of 40, that seems to be a stretch. The law of diminishing returns sets in. If someone has gone from 1:40 ish to 1:15 having taken up swimming late in life, I'd love to hear the details. However, another 40-44 gentleman finished nine minutes out of first, and his swim averaged 2:02. He could pick up 2/3 of that time by improving his swim pace to 1:40 per 100 - definitely achievable with better technique and more concentrated training.
your sample size is too small to derive any meaningful correlations. Agreed. So far on this thread we've looked at three tris. While not comprehensive, it's probably better than the several n=1 posts floating around here. Anyone who wants to do add another - or design a comprehensive study is welcome to do so. More is definitely better. |
| 2013-08-23 3:00 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 6011 Camp Hill, Pennsylvania | Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? LOL! 5 pages of posts, even though Shane answered the question in the first couple posts on page 1. eta: Gotta love online forum debates! Edited by TriMyBest 2013-08-23 3:00 PM |
| 2013-08-23 5:27 PM in reply to: TriMyBest |
Champion 7595 Columbia, South Carolina | Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? Originally posted by TriMyBest LOL! 5 pages of posts, even though Shane answered the question in the first couple posts on page 1. eta: Gotta love online forum debates! Oh, we have so moved beyond the original question. ;-) |
| 2013-08-23 5:32 PM in reply to: reecealan |
Champion 7595 Columbia, South Carolina | Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? Originally posted by reecealan Originally posted by Experior Originally posted by reecealan This is a timely post. Attached are the results of the top 15 finishers in a local long course tri I participated in Sunday. The top 4 finishers were fairly close together heading into the run. You can see how important the run was here. Only one guy in the top 15 could not run sub 7's (it was a 5 mile run), that was ME! So if I want to compete with these guys I've got to get my run game on. That's a reasonable hypothesis. Another reasonable hypothesis, given what you've told us, is that you biked beyond your fitness and were wiped for the run. How fast can you run 5 miles on fresh legs? That's a good question about how fast I could run 5 on fresh legs now that I think about it. I don't have an open 10K to compare to. My last 5K race pace was around 6:43 pace, and my last HM was at 7:41 pace. Average between the two is 7:10, maybe that would be near my open 10K pace. I did run a 7:22 pace at the Kansas 5150 after a pretty hard bike leg but the swim was cancelled. So those were relatively fresh legs I suppose. This stuff is what makes triathlon fun. Given what you say here, and assuming there weren't really hard conditions on the run, you probably overcooked the bike a bit in that race. Nice result, though! |
| 2013-08-24 3:03 AM in reply to: mcmanusclan5 |
Extreme Veteran 929 , Kobenhavns Kommune | Subject: RE: Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish? Originally posted by mcmanusclan5 So... Which leg is the best predictor of OA finish based on one's placement in that leg? Wow, I missed the party! Well back to OPs question: The answer is: none of them. That's why you have to do all three. You can find people who excel or suck in any combination of the disciplines and the leg in which placement comes closes to overall is different in each case. For any one individual though, that person may find that one of the legs tends always to be closer to his/her overall placement, in my case I've had both bike and run legs to be closer to the overall. I think the only thing that is continuously confirmed is that, if you place relatively the same in each leg your overall place will usually be better, and that's because in each leg there will be specialists placing better than you but suffering in the other disciplines, and you will likely not podium if you neglect any of the legs. BR |
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