Marathon Pacing

2013-09-06 9:26 PM

Veteran

284

Subject: Marathon Pacing

In two weeks I'll be running my third stand alone marathon. The previous two, in 2008 and 2012, I ran in 4:18 and 4:16 respectively. Both races I was on pace for a sub 4 until Mile 20-21 where I blew up.

Instead of half assing my marathon training like I have done in the past, I've really made an effort to stick to my training plan this year. I've been following Schedule A in Road Racing for Serious Runners by Pfitzinger and Douglas, an 18 week plan that starts at 25 miles per week and increases to 40. I've hit every training run so far. Last year I only managed 544 miles all year. This year I'm at 864.

So that's my background. I'd like some feedback on what my goal pace should be. 3:55 seems doable, but I've been overconfident about it before. I really just want to avoid blowing up again. My last really relevant race was a half marathon in 1:46:31 in April. I felt good at the end of my 20 miler (2:59:17) and I did a 6 mi tempo run last week as a substitute for a 10K tuneup race in 7:11,6:59,6:56,7:09,7:01,7:17 splits.

Thanks!

Edited by dtjunkie 2013-09-06 9:26 PM

Experior

2013-09-06 10:27 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Champion

7595

Columbia, South Carolina

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Assuming that conditions are similar (temperature, humidity, terrain), your 1:46 half race and ~3:00 20 mile training run suggest quite strongly that you can go under 4hrs. How far under 4 will depend on execution and how your training has been going, among other things.

I like to go out strong and try to hold on, but of course the downside to this strategy is that you blow up completely. If I were you I'd go out at at least 3:55 pace, if not faster. Then hold on!

colinphillips

2013-09-06 10:48 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Master

2563

University Park, MD

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

I normally agree entirely with Michael, but on this one I'm not so sure. If your main goal is to go sub 4, then I'd suggest to aim for just that, and to not gamble on a faster pace. When things go bad in a marathon, they go really bad. I think you already know that.

Your times for shorter distances suggest that sub-4 should be within your capabilities. Your mileage is on the low side for using typical pace equivalent calculators. Also, if your 6-mile and half marathon times are based on similar fitness, then it may be that you're simply stronger over shorter distances in any case, which would be more reason to be cautious in marathon pacing. I'd suggest to go out at 3:55 pace, expect it to be quite easy early on, but to just hold it at that pace.

Experior

2013-09-07 6:18 AM

in reply to: colinphillips

Champion

7595

Columbia, South Carolina

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by colinphillips I normally agree entirely with Michael, but on this one I'm not so sure. If your main goal is to go sub 4, then I'd suggest to aim for just that, and to not gamble on a faster pace. When things go bad in a marathon, they go really bad. I think you already know that. Your times for shorter distances suggest that sub-4 should be within your capabilities. Your mileage is on the low side for using typical pace equivalent calculators. Also, if your 6-mile and half marathon times are based on similar fitness, then it may be that you're simply stronger over shorter distances in any case, which would be more reason to be cautious in marathon pacing. I'd suggest to go out at 3:55 pace, expect it to be quite easy early on, but to just hold it at that pace.

I like to gamble...

rjrankin83

2013-09-07 6:37 AM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Expert

1130

Fernandina Beach, FL

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

I agree with everything Colin said. 40 mpw is pretty low for peak week in marathon training which could be part of the reason for a 22 mile blowup. If it were me I'd go out the first 10 miles at a 3:55-4 hour pace, 10 miles at a 3:45-50 pace, then put everything left into the last 10k

2013-09-07 7:27 AM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Expert

1394

Wilmington, NC

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Question.

Your 6mi Race simulation last week.
How do you feel that went? Course temp?
I ask b/c your last mile was quite a bit slower than the first 5mi. Was that b/c of a big hill or did you just have to slow down?

Also you called it race simulation. Your goal is sub 4hrs so how is a 6mi at about 7min pace a race simulation? Just better trying to understand where you are at fitness wise.

2013-09-07 8:16 AM

in reply to: qrkid

Veteran

284

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by qrkid

Question.

Your 6mi Race simulation last week.
How do you feel that went? Course temp?
I ask b/c your last mile was quite a bit slower than the first 5mi. Was that b/c of a big hill or did you just have to slow down?

Also you called it race simulation. Your goal is sub 4hrs so how is a 6mi at about 7min pace a race simulation? Just better trying to understand where you are at fitness wise.

My training plan called for a 8k-15k tune-up race, which is supposed to be ran faster than a tempo run. I called it a race simulation because I wasn't able to find a race of that distance nearby, so I didn't have the same conditions as you would for a race (crowd, other runners). That last mile was slower because of two big hills right at the end. The temperature was pretty cool (50 degrees?) and I felt good.

herkimer81

2013-09-07 9:00 AM

in reply to: rjrankin83

Regular

140

Raleigh

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by rjrankin83

I agree with everything Colin said. 40 mpw is pretty low for peak week in marathon training which could be part of the reason for a 22 mile blowup. If it were me I'd go out the first 10 miles at a 3:55-4 hour pace, 10 miles at a 3:45-50 pace, then put everything left into the last 10k

I am in very similar condition to the OP. 3rd marathon coming up, 2 previous blowups, wanting to get to sub-4. Same half PR, similar mileage, although I'll be topping out at slightly more for this build.

Anyway, I plan on attacking this marathon almost exactly as rjrankin83 suggests. Go out at a comfortable pace for the first 10ish, carefully dip down to a faster pace for second 10. Then bury myself (assuming I'm not already) over the last 10k-ish.

If at anytime during 10-20 miles I feel things going south, I'm hitting the abort button and hopefully cruising to a 3:59:59 or better. My training suggests that 3:45 is the pace that will probably cause me to blow at mile 20. 3:50 is probably a perfectly executed race. Anything over 4:00 and I will be disappointed in my race execution.

If anything feels off on race day, I'm going into conservative mode and ensuring that I at least come away with my membership into the sub-4 club.

2013-09-07 9:04 AM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Regular

5477

LHOTP

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

OP, with those runs and splits I would say you can definitely sub 4--probably 3:45 on an everything goes right day. As you have relatively low peak mileage weeks and have had trouble after 20, I would pace 3:55 (which will feel quite comfortable I think) up to 22 miles. This is more conservative than others and will rule out a 3:45, but I get the feeling sub 4 is important, and so a conservative approach does two things: it gets you past a point that is gonna be nagging at you mentally as a potential blow up spot, and it lets you finish the race strong and feeling good meeting your goal. To the group, do any of you routinely run marathon distance or longer as part of your race prep? I know most training programs argue against this, but the psychological peace it gives me makes me incorporate it.

2013-09-07 9:33 AM

in reply to: qrkid

Expert

1394

Wilmington, NC

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

so I am a firm believer in saying that you have to risk failure to succeed.

Often times (not in this thread so far) BT people like to tell you to go out conservative and negative split. I never quite get why you would go slower than race pace and then have to go faster than race pace so you arrive at race pace goal. I say you go out at race pace then if all goes well you negative split and have a really great result.

That all being said. I feel you are in sub 4 territory, but no by much. You have very little miles behind you and often times it looks like your bigger weeks are a result of just the long run with very little supporting mileage. I think goal pace is in the 3:55 - 58 range. I say go out at that pace (as pretty much everyone has said) and hopefully you get to 20mi and prove me wrong and bring it home strong to go under 3:55.

Good luck.

2013-09-07 9:37 AM

in reply to: switch

Expert

1394

Wilmington, NC

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by switch

OP, with those runs and splits I would say you can definitely sub 4--probably 3:45 on an everything goes right day. As you have relatively low peak mileage weeks and have had trouble after 20, I would pace 3:55 (which will feel quite comfortable I think) up to 22 miles. This is more conservative than others and will rule out a 3:45, but I get the feeling sub 4 is important, and so a conservative approach does two things: it gets you past a point that is gonna be nagging at you mentally as a potential blow up spot, and it lets you finish the race strong and feeling good meeting your goal. To the group, do any of you routinely run marathon distance or longer as part of your race prep? I know most training programs argue against this, but the psychological peace it gives me makes me incorporate it.

Switch

I have not done a marathon, but know I am a believer in that approach. I would not say routinely go the distance or more, but def do that one or twice. I am thinking about a marathon debut next year and before I even plan that out I know I will have a 24mi run at about 85% of race pace and a 26-28mi run in that buildup.

rjrankin83

2013-09-07 10:03 AM

in reply to: 0

Expert

1130

Fernandina Beach, FL

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by qrkid

so I am a firm believer in saying that you have to risk failure to succeed.

Often times (not in this thread so far) BT people like to tell you to go out conservative and negative split. I never quite get why you would go slower than race pace and then have to go faster than race pace so you arrive at race pace goal. I say you go out at race pace then if all goes well you negative split and have a really great result.

That all being said. I feel you are in sub 4 territory, but no by much. You have very little miles behind you and often times it looks like your bigger weeks are a result of just the long run with very little supporting mileage. I think goal pace is in the 3:55 - 58 range. I say go out at that pace (as pretty much everyone has said) and hopefully you get to 20mi and prove me wrong and bring it home strong to go under 3:55.

Good luck.

Having not done a marathon before, I could see why you wouldn't understand the importance of negative splitting a marathon. From someone who's tried it both ways, if you choose a realistic goal time, negative splitting is a lot easier than holding one pace for 26.2 miles. I'd assume that's why you see it recommended so much.

OP I can't see splits from your 20 mile run. What was your fastest mile? Slowest mile? Are you taking in any calories? How and how much?

FWIW to answer someone's earlier question....I don't do a lot of marathons (2 so far) but my first I did one 20 mile run and the second I did three 20 mile runs. I'm comfortable only going 20 not sure the extra 6 in a training day would benefit me at all

EDIT: qrkid-after checking your race logs it's clear to me you're a running freak. Beastly HM off the bike in those HIM races. You can run however you want I'm not worthy

Back to the OP my first marathon goal was sub4 and I attempted to go out and hold on. I blew up and walked a lot the last 10k. I went out too fast which I think is a common mistake with the "just hold on mentality", however I did break my 4 hour goal. My half time was similar to yours at that time. Whatever pacing you choose just make sure you stick to it. It's easy to run harder than you should those first 18 mile but race adrenaline will only get you so far

Edited by rjrankin83 2013-09-07 10:13 AM

2013-09-07 12:11 PM

in reply to: 0

Veteran

284

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by rjrankin83

OP I can't see splits from your 20 mile run. What was your fastest mile? Slowest mile? Are you taking in any calories? How and how much?

Back to the OP my first marathon goal was sub4 and I attempted to go out and hold on. I blew up and walked a lot the last 10k. I went out too fast which I think is a common mistake with the "just hold on mentality", however I did break my 4 hour goal. My half time was similar to yours at that time. Whatever pacing you choose just make sure you stick to it. It's easy to run harder than you should those first 18 mile but race adrenaline will only get you so far

On my 20 mile run my splits ranged from 9:32 (1st mile warming up) to an 8:05 (last mile craziness... the mile before that was 8:32). I ate a 100 calorie GU at Mile 6.5 and around Mile 13. Obviously as you can tell from the last mile I felt great. Of course I started on a cool day at 6 AM. The marathon starts at 7:30. Both years I've ran the marathon it was cool in the morning but the sun came out and by the time I got to Mile 20 it felt really hot. Both times when I blew up my breathing felt fine and my heart rate seemed okay but my legs just cramped up and just didn't want to work. I'd try and run and after a quarter mile I'd get this bolt of pain down my leg. I do sweat a lot so I've thought in the past it could be a hydration thing, but I know my mileage isn't that high. The good thing for me this year compared to last is I have done a ton more mileage... probably getting towards twice as much pre-race this year as pre-race last year.

Sub-4 is definitely important to me so I like your suggestion. I was thinking that my main focus should be on getting that sub 4 and then transitioning to the 60 mile peak plan for a spring marathon.

And thank you very much everyone for the advice! It is much appreciated!

Edited by dtjunkie 2013-09-07 12:20 PM

2013-09-07 12:25 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Regular

5477

LHOTP

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Cool:)

Hey, are you only taking in the calories in those two gus? Do you have any other race nutrition planned? Unless you did something different for your races, the cramping sounds like it could be due to low sodium and cals.

tedjohn

2013-09-07 1:46 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Regular

585

Pueblo, Colorado

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

I have a total of 3 marathons to my credit, so take this for what it's worth. If the race is big enough, there may be a pace group that you can follow somewhere between 3:50,4:00. I would recommend this through the first part of the race. If you can do this for the first 20 miles, and then you feel good, you can pick it up from there. I've done the "go out strong and hold on" method, and while I did PR (also with minimal mileage in training), it was a 3:59:05.
Looking at your other times this year, I think you should feel fairly confident about going sub 4:00. So much of the marathon is psychological so if you plan on feeling strong at 20 miles, chances are you will feel strong. Good luck!

rick4657

2013-09-07 1:57 PM

in reply to: #4849265

Extreme Veteran

1001

Highlands Ranch, Colorado

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

25-40 miles per week is pretty low mileage for optimal marathon training, this is probably why you seem to fade late in the race. Based upon your mileage I would start out a little slow then pick it up at the end. Run the first 8 miles at around or just below your goal pace, if you are feeling good pick up the pace to your goal pace minus 10 seconds from 8-20 then give it what you have over the last 10K. Also I recommend that you alternate between water and sports drink every other water stop. I also do a gel at miles 7, 14 & 21.

Several others said that they would go out faster than goal pace and try to hang on but I suspect that they had a higher training base. I have done this a few times but my peak weekly mileage was in the 70 mpw range.

Good luck!

2013-09-07 3:22 PM

in reply to: rjrankin83

Expert

1394

Wilmington, NC

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by rjrankin83

EDIT: qrkid-after checking your race logs it's clear to me you're a running freak. Beastly HM off the bike in those HIM races. You can run however you want I'm not worthy

Thanks

I might run a little faster but I feel the same logic applies. We just do it at different paces.

I actually deleted the part where you say pick a realistic pace and then try and negative split. Spot on . That is the key.

I am a firm believer in negative splitting and think it is the best way to get the best great result. The last half marathon I raced I got to 10mi in 57:30 (5:45 pace) and brought the last 5k home in 17:22 ( 5:35 pace). So I went out at what I believed I could run overall for the race (5:45 pace) I was then able to bring it home strong.
I seem to read on here where people in our OP's case would suggest going out at 4:05 marathon (even though he want sub 4:00) pace and then if feel good negative split it. I say pick a realistic goal pace and go out at that pace (In this case I said I think OP should go at 3:55-58 pace. Basically don't be conservative. Be realistic (as you said) but then go after it.

Basically you and I are agreeing. I just don't put my thoughts down in writing all that well.

herkimer81

2013-09-07 3:27 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Regular

140

Raleigh

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

ps: OP, good luck
pps: OP, be sure to let me know how you ultimately approach your marathon and what the results were...it may be helpful for me when i tackle the race next month
ppps: if the results are sub-optimal, you can PM me

best of luck for reals

2013-09-07 4:23 PM

in reply to: qrkid

Regular

5477

LHOTP

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by qrkid

Originally posted by rjrankin83 EDIT: qrkid-after checking your race logs it's clear to me you're a running freak. Beastly HM off the bike in those HIM races. You can run however you want I'm not worthy :)

Thanks I might run a little faster but I feel the same logic applies. We just do it at different paces. I actually deleted the part where you say pick a realistic pace and then try and negative split. Spot on . That is the key. I am a firm believer in negative splitting and think it is the best way to get the best great result. The last half marathon I raced I got to 10mi in 57:30 (5:45 pace) and brought the last 5k home in 17:22 ( 5:35 pace). So I went out at what I believed I could run overall for the race (5:45 pace) I was then able to bring it home strong. I seem to read on here where people in our OP's case would suggest going out at 4:05 marathon (even though he want sub 4:00) pace and then if feel good negative split it. I say pick a realistic goal pace and go out at that pace (In this case I said I think OP should go at 3:55-58 pace. Basically don't be conservative. Be realistic (as you said) but then go after it. Basically you and I are agreeing. I just don't put my thoughts down in writing all that well.

HOLY BALLZ! Yeah, dude, run it however you want--AWESOME! I may have to log stalk you now.

FWIW, I have trained for marathons lots of different ways:

Longest run 20 miles (peak weeks ~ 60mpw)

3 long runs of 20 miles (peak weeks ~60mpw)

Longest run 24 miles (peak weeks ~60mpw)

Longest run 28 w/ a 22, 24, 26, 24 in there (peak weeks ~70mpw)

My PR is a 3:20, and that came with that last sequence, but it was also after years of the other stuff--a progression. I really have never followed a plan, per se, as running was (this was all prekids/10 years ago) more cheap therapy than training for me:) To that end, I also never did "zone 2 base" work; every run I did was kinda all out. I'm trying to be smart(er) about things now as I train for my first one post-kids. Looking forward to seeing what I can do with a little method to the madness.

If I'm only training for one sport and I have the time, I sure do like having lots of long runs around the distance and one run over the distance, but I think this is really personal. The psychological benefit I get from walking to the line knowing full well how it's gonna go down and just making the withdrawal from the bank is really huge for me. That being said, there are a lot of people on this board with much faster times than me and considerably more running depth who would argue against running over distance for marathon training.

You've got some really impressive running, man. I wanna see how that full goes for you :)

rjrankin83

2013-09-07 5:33 PM

in reply to: qrkid

Expert

1130

Fernandina Beach, FL

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by qrkid

I see what you're saying now. We're on the same page

OP it's going to take more than 2 GU's to run a good PR marathon

Experior

2013-09-07 5:55 PM

in reply to: qrkid

Champion

7595

Columbia, South Carolina

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by qrkid

Originally posted by rjrankin83 EDIT: qrkid-after checking your race logs it's clear to me you're a running freak. Beastly HM off the bike in those HIM races. You can run however you want I'm not worthy

Thanks I might run a little faster but I feel the same logic applies. We just do it at different paces. I actually deleted the part where you say pick a realistic pace and then try and negative split. Spot on . That is the key. I am a firm believer in negative splitting and think it is the best way to get the best great result. The last half marathon I raced I got to 10mi in 57:30 (5:45 pace) and brought the last 5k home in 17:22 ( 5:35 pace). So I went out at what I believed I could run overall for the race (5:45 pace) I was then able to bring it home strong. I seem to read on here where people in our OP's case would suggest going out at 4:05 marathon (even though he want sub 4:00) pace and then if feel good negative split it. I say pick a realistic goal pace and go out at that pace (In this case I said I think OP should go at 3:55-58 pace. Basically don't be conservative. Be realistic (as you said) but then go after it. Basically you and I are agreeing. I just don't put my thoughts down in writing all that well.

FWIW, that's pretty much what I was suggesting as well. As stated, it is a bit of a gamble -- OP could blow up. I'd rather give a tough but realistic goal a try and blow up than play it safe. But, OP could blow up.

2013-09-07 9:16 PM

in reply to: 0

Veteran

284

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by rjrankin83

OP it's going to take more than 2 GU's to run a good PR marathon

Yup. I guess I forgot about the calories in sports drinks. During my previous stand alone marathons I've taken 3-4 GUs spread out over the race as well as Gatorade. I think I might get in trouble at the marathons because I try and run through the water stops and probably don't get enough in. During my long runs I stop and drink a few cups of water (or gatorade). I walked the water stops during the marathon portion of the IM I did and I didn't have any muscle cramping (although I was obviously running much slower (4:50)). Now that I think about it I did carry a bottle of gatorade the first 13 miles of the IM and picked up another bottle halfway from my special needs bag. Maybe I should just carry a bottle with me during the marathon. But it's probably the mileage. If I can nail nutrition for an IM you would think I could figure it out for a marathon.

Edited by dtjunkie 2013-09-07 9:26 PM

2013-09-07 9:28 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Regular

5477

LHOTP

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by dtjunkie

Originally posted by rjrankin83 OP it's going to take more than 2 GU's to run a good PR marathon

Yup. I guess I forgot about the calories in sports drinks. During my previous stand alone marathons I've taken 3-4 GUs spread out over the race as well as Gatorade. I think I might get in trouble at the marathons because I try and run through the water stops and probably don't get enough in. During my long runs I stop and drink a few cups of water (or gatorade). I walked the water stops during the marathon portion of the IM I did and even though I was much slower (4:50) I didn't have any muscle cramping. Now that I think about it I did carry a bottle of gatorade the first 13 miles of the IM and picked up another bottle halfway from my special needs bag. Maybe I should just carry a bottle with me during the marathon. But it's probably the mileage. If I can nail nutrition for an IM you would think I could figure it out for a marathon.

Nutrition is so personal that I hate to even mention it, buuuuuuuuuuuut, if I do just Gu and Gatorade on a marathon, I'm kind of a mess. I really need some salt in there, and the hotter it is, the more critical that becomes.

2013-09-21 1:29 PM

in reply to: herkimer81

Veteran

284

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by herkimer81

ps: OP, good luck
pps: OP, be sure to let me know how you ultimately approach your marathon and what the results were...it may be helpful for me when i tackle the race next month
ppps: if the results are sub-optimal, you can PM me

best of luck for reals

Sorry for bumping this old thread but I wanted to give an update. The race was today and I went 3:48:05! Beautiful day for running. It was nice and overcast. I hung out with the 3:55 group until Mile 20, felt great, and then went Beastmode. I had 7 GUs in a bottle than I snacked on the whole race and I ate some bananas while I was out there. Alternated water and gatorade at the water stops. Thanks again for all the advice in this thread. 28 minute PR!

Donto

2013-09-21 2:32 PM

in reply to: dtjunkie

Pro

6582

Melbourne FL

Gold member

Subject: RE: Marathon Pacing

Originally posted by dtjunkie Sorry for bumping this old thread but I wanted to give an update. The race was today and I went 3:48:05! Beautiful day for running. It was nice and overcast. I hung out with the 3:55 group until Mile 20, felt great, and then went Beastmode. I had 7 GUs in a bottle than I snacked on the whole race and I ate some bananas while I was out there. Alternated water and gatorade at the water stops. Thanks again for all the advice in this thread. 28 minute PR!

Hey that's awesome, way to go!