Where is the sport headed?

Why do you think the next 3 - 5 years are "pivotal"?   From where I view it triathlon is as healthy as ever.  Plenty of people will come AND go...there is little longevity in the sport, and there never has been. 

The glut of "coaches" would be absolutely laughable if not for the truly talented ones among their ranks...less coaches would be a good thing.

Granted, most of what I see now in triathlon has to do with development and elite racing.....but wait until you see some of the training complexes that are coming down the pike to help bring our athletes up to a competitive level on the international stage.

Also consider....the sport of triathlon is not about the U.S. only.....it's in fine shape. 

This is going to sound like a bunch of rambling of thoughts that I've had about the sport, so bear with me:

I think it depends on where you race as much as what your goals are.  The average joe isn't as concerned about racing fast as they are about building to that IM checkmark.  They do sprints to prepare for Olympics to prepare for HIM to prepare for IM.  Usually at that point the combination of post IM depression and not having anymore goals makes these people lose interest in the sport.  

On the other hand you can have someone that wants to be fast in shorter course races, but the field they race is small enough to where they can look at the list of registrants and know exactly where they're going to place in that race.  Building up to being a local race favorite is fun, but once you get there what is next?  Race the same guys year after year? 

I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks that would get exhausting after a while.

For your first point they probably don't want to be continually engaged.  

There is potential with your second point.  Maybe some kind of series point system where small race results can actually mean something.  I mean heck if I need and extra some odd points and a small race in Florida can potentially can give me it, then why not?  Maybe it makes the fields of local races more dynamic. 

You hit one of the biggest reason for burnout in good/fast triathletes.  Over the years I've known and trained with quite a few fast guys....and somewhere along the line they get the idea that they can beat most of the local folks so now it's on to trying to be a pro, or get major sponsorship, and they get their arses handed to them.....and find out that they can barely, if at all, compete with the guys/gals who are racing at the top end nationally.

Jr. is a prime example.  He won't race local races.....doesn't care at all since he can win or overall podium all of them.  Luckily for his there is an avenue to move up in competition slowly and methodically.  He's gone from local races, to ironkids national races, to Jr. Elite national races, and now he is on the verge of races like the Pan American Jr. champioinships.  This pathway has also allowed him to move up and be a top AG'er as he hones his race.  And it keeps him coming back for more.

I bring his pathway up because I think there is a place for this type of movement in all ages.  The Rush race by Rev3 is a case in point.  dmiller, from this board, got to find out where he stands against some of the top amatuer talent....and learned a ton.  If that avenue can stay open, and perhaps even get some TV converage, there could be some good growth from it.  The races are exciting and VERY spectator friendly.  The best point is that this type of racing tends to keep people in the sport.  IM racing is fine.....but it's full of people who are one and done with absolutely no concern for the sport other than their own goal of finishing an IM.  That's fine too.....but it doesn't support long term growth.  Give people a true path of more and more competitive short/medium course racing and you will keep them.

For the last few years the Jr. Elite series has consisted of 3 races and a Naitonal Championship......the races are across the country and even though the cost of traveling prohibits many from competing, the waiting lists for these races (only 75 participants in each age division/gender) are BIG.  There is talk of a major expansion....perhaps even moving to 6 or more qualifying races with the idea of making room for more young athletes.  Club swimmers have fouind triathlon, it's on the NCAA woman's championship sport list with college programs to start soon.  The wave of REALLY fast young athletes is just building in this country....it will be a boom for the sport here.

Race Day Events came to mind for me as well, but for a different reason. They have a number of different types of races, not just triathlon. They run a number of running races, some obstacle courses and a pair of aquathon series near Madison and Milwaukee. So another avenue to explore could be to build these other combinations or work more with single sports too, growing a variety of related activities. I really like triathlon, but it's not all I want to do all the time.

Not sure what the future is, I'd imagine in 3-5 years there will still be a lot of people splashing around at the local masters class, wearing calf compression socks on the MUP, and out there riding around on P3's.  That's not going to change.  I think the only difference is that there will be a growth in short course and ITU racing.  This past weekend I was talking to the rest of the Open/Elite swim wave and several people had specifically brought a road bike to the race because they were training for ITU and were focusing solely on Sprint/Supersprint distance races for the year.  These same people were also venturing into criterium races as a way to prepare.  I'm not saying that the 70.3 and 140.6 races are going to shrink, because they won't, they will always be around since I think WTC has built a pretty successful company around them.

Training for what ITU races?  The problem right now is there are damn few races.....meaning almost NONE that you can enter if you aren't part of an elite pathway.  For adults you basically have to chosen by USAT.  Jr. races you can just enter....but need to be aware that if you can't swim well you will be lapped out of the race before you ever get to run, or sometimes even bike.

I'd like to see the numbers form REV3 on their Rush race....and I'd like to know about any other open ITU style draft legal races in the U.S.  I agree it's part of the future of the sport here.....but somebody needs to get the ball rolling.

Not sure which one(s), one was 17 and mentioned a U25 Jr Elite race.  The other was doing enough racing for a good enough standing to get in, but was pretty sure he would.

Eh...probably EDR races.  There are a few of them around the country and top 3 earn pro cards.  I think the category is actually U23 mostly.  Jr. level is 16-19.....the only races left there are the Des Moines qualifier and nationals in Westchester, Ohio.

You've said it.  I feel it already, as I know that if I qualify for Sprint worlds I WILL get rocked there.  At my best I can't hang with the fastest amateurs much less pretend to race with the pros.

So I find myself stuck between beating people I know I can beat or trying to beat racers that I know I can't.  Or I can just ride club rides on the weekends and save the race fees.

My only suggestion is to race outside your comfort zone every chance you get.  It's expensive traveling around to find the best competition, but you can't race with those folks if you don't race them whenever you can.  Chicago is this weekend, you going?  You should be.  It's the same course as next years worlds and likely the best competition you can find this weekend.  You have to develope a different level of mindset about racing if you want to crack those top ranks....you have to actively search for better races and competition and plan AT LEAST a year in advance, and in some cases longer.....it's a process.  You may not have the ability or talent.....but there is only one way to find out.

x2 to the bolded. I raced some pro's and very high level amateurs at Rev3Rush, I'll be at sprint worlds too. It shows you what you need to work on, and for me, that I actually was closer than I thought to the higher level amateurs. Build the confidence, and build the engine.