Ooops, I signed up for an Ironman. Am I Doomed? (Page 5)

you need to work on your reading comprehension bud.  I said I did an ironman in 12 hours, and it WASN'T racing, it was surviving. The implication being that aiming to finish in 16-17 hours would be miserable.  stop misquoting me

I think OP has jumped the shark.

Pass me some of that corn will ya?

Guaranteed you have the right race and right person.  

That swim is exactly what he said (shallow rowing lake) and that run is exactly what he said it was (4 x 5km loops).

But most importantly all 5 of those splits are exactly what he said he did.  So ya definitely legit.

How did I make it through life without ever encountering this phrase?  I probably even saw the episode, though I don't recall it.

Ok then!  Bring on Nice!

The sub 2 hour half marathon is the most impressive part, at least I think so. This gent may have the goods to finish Nice

He's still a dangerously incompetent fool. For real.

There's a fine line between being a fool and a hero, and the OP could be teetering on that line.  Pretty sure many people thought the original 15 were crazy fools.  But I have no idea why you deem him dangerously incompetent.

X

The only thing I found weird was the whole "give me your personal information or you are a liar" (paraphrasing) thing.  What's so hard about just believing him?  Who cares if he's lying or not?  It's just the Internet.  Sometimes people take this stuff way too seriously.

Let's run the numbers and see if you have the fitness. I dropped the results into Excel and did some sorting. There's a couple errors in the numbers (one guy's bike attributed to his T2 time, that sort of thing) which I dropped out to clean the numbers.

Overall: You finished 85th of 89 finishers. Congrats on the finish! You clearly have determination and mental fortitude to spare.

Swim: 72 of 89. You did 46:37, average was 40:33.  Back of the pack, but not too far off the average. However you had 1/20th the number of swimmers as you will find in IM Nice and the Mediterranean Sea is not a 4' deep lake described as "superb" on the race website. Given this performance, I think you'll be in OK in Nice if you stay at the back of the pack, stay out of the scrum, and the weather cooperates. My prediction for your IM time: 1:35 to 1:45 swim.

Bike: 86 of 89.  You did 3:29, the average was 2:47. Ouch. There wasn't a big spread on the bike, and you were most definitely the far back of the pack. And you were riding a non-challenging course described as "3 fast loops" on the race website. This performance says you're clearly in danger of not making the cutoffs. My prediction for IM: 9:00 to DNF bike. It's the Alps, after all.

Run: 69 of 89 . You did 1:57, the average was 1:46. Back of pack again, but not terribly much so. IM Nice does have a flat fast run, probably comparable to this race but of course longer. If you get to the run without enough time left before cut-offs, you can make it.  My prediction for IM: 5:30 to 6:30 run, if you can get to it.

Adding up my predictions: at best, about 15:05.  At worst, you DNF on the bike or the run course due to time limits. You only have 16 hours at IM France.

I couldn't find an Excel or PDF format of the full IM France 2014 results to calculate averages do a "if you're off the average as much in IM France as you were in this race, what are those numbers" type of comparison.  But I did look up the M25-29 category and ran some numbers. If you can do a 1:35, a 9 hour bike, and 5 hour run and are fast enough in transition, you'll make it .  That's what the last guy in that age group did in 2014.

Sometimes there's a really fine line between determination and foolishness. On race day please try to recognize the difference and stay safe for yourself and others.

EDIT: And jeez, man, get it together! Backwards wetsuit, forgot your gels in the car, lost the charger to your Garmin? You have enough problems ahead of you without that kind of derpy derp in your way.  Get a checklist together (there are many, I can PM you mine). Do each long ride as a race day simulation. You have your Garmin, it's charged. You have your food on-board the bike. You eat your gels the same time you'll eat them during IM. Practice doing the right things and they become second nature.

At this point, don't sweat the details of your actual training that much.  Whatever fitness improvements you make in the next few weeks...it is what it is.  Focus on the other aspects such as pacing and nutrition.  It won't matter if you show up on race day with X% more fitness if you go out too hard or get your nutrition wrong.

Do you have a plan for what you will wear on race day?  Are you going to do a full change after the swim and after the bike?  Make sure you get these details squared away now because race day is not the time to be experimenting.  Being as comfortable as possible, and knowing you are going to be in clothing that doesn't chafe will become very important during a 14+ hour day.