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Possible marathon time ???
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 2015-10-13 1:04 PM |
Member  1748     Exton, PA |  Subject: Possible marathon time ???What is a possible marathon time that anyone could achieve assuming they are injury free and willing to put in the work. with a competitive swim background I saw some of the most genetically non-gifted people swim when I was young and they were all able to get to a certain level. (BTW that's faster than most triathletes) As someone who never ran a mile until I was 37, I'm wondering what is possible in the running world. Is a 3hr marathon possible for anyone? -- 3:15? ----3:30? am I going the wrong way is a sub 3hr possible for anyone? |
| 2015-10-13 1:09 PM in reply to: mike761 |
Master 1433 Calgary, AB Silver member | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? For an uninjured male who isn't overweight I'd say your Boston qualify time is a fair marker that some people just can't make, but a lot can. Going sub 3 at 40+ is not going to happen for everyone but isn't an insane goal if you can run 50+ miles/week. Thinking you'll break 2:30 is the realm of lunacy unless you're some genetic fluke. |
| 2015-10-13 1:19 PM in reply to: mike761 |
Extreme Veteran 5722 | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? Originally posted by mike761 What is a possible marathon time that anyone could achieve assuming they are injury free and willing to put in the work. with a competitive swim background I saw some of the most genetically non-gifted people swim when I was young and they were all able to get to a certain level. (BTW that's faster than most triathletes) As someone who never ran a mile until I was 37, I'm wondering what is possible in the running world. Is a 3hr marathon possible for anyone? -- 3:15? ----3:30? am I going the wrong way is a sub 3hr possible for anyone? My father was a swimmer. European 50m sprint champion when he was 18. Alternate on the French olympic team in 1952. Never did any other sport. Never swam events past the 100m Quit swimming, got fat, started smoking (he is French) and worked like a mad man to build his career At 40, quit smoking and starting getting into shape. I remember in 1978 he was 48 and doing close to 100mpw. He was running to work every morning (13 miles), so I could use his car to go to work. Ran 2h45 in Boston at 50something. Two artificial knees at 75. He was "driven" |
| 2015-10-13 1:25 PM in reply to: mike761 |
Regular 1161 Hamilton, IL | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? Originally posted by mike761 What is a possible marathon time that anyone could achieve assuming they are injury free and willing to put in the work. with a competitive swim background I saw some of the most genetically non-gifted people swim when I was young and they were all able to get to a certain level. (BTW that's faster than most triathletes) As someone who never ran a mile until I was 37, I'm wondering what is possible in the running world. Is a 3hr marathon possible for anyone? -- 3:15? ----3:30? am I going the wrong way is a sub 3hr possible for anyone? I hate to make generalizations, but I'm gonna do it anyway. There are lots of 47 year olds that can run sub 3. Can they all do it? No, but it's totally possible. Why did I pick 47 year olds? It goes back to this rule of thumb. You'll see it mentioned in lots of places if you start reading about Boston Qualifying and what it takes to get there. If you start running with intent and continue to maintain that intent, and be smart about your running... You should be able to see growth for the next ten years. Problem is, when does age start to counteract that growth? I dunno. So, If ANYBODY came to me and asked if they could run focus and break three hours.... I'd tell every single one of them "Yes, if you are willing to work hard for the next ten years!" Would I always be right? Maybe not. Actually, most people would burn-out or wuss-out so early that they'd never prove me wrong. |
| 2015-10-13 1:36 PM in reply to: Danno77 |
| 928 | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? As part of the "running world" and having seen a lot of people who try very hard for certain times and don't make it (and others who do), I don't think it's correct to say anything is possible for anyone. There are many variables that are controllable (training time, weight, nutrition, habits, etc), many that aren't (genetics). If you have an untrained starting point it's easier to predict where you could get with training, but it also depends on how early/late in life you start. You already mentioned that about swimming-- there's a certain amount of muscle memory and training that one can achieve when they are young that is much harder to get if you start when you are older. Bottom line- I don't think it's realistic to set an arbitrary goal before you start. |
| 2015-10-13 1:53 PM in reply to: 0 |
Member 1748 Exton, PA | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? Originally posted by Khyron For an uninjured male who isn't overweight I'd say your Boston qualify time is a fair marker that some people just can't make, but a lot can. Going sub 3 at 40+ is not going to happen for everyone but isn't an insane goal if you can run 50+ miles/week. Thinking you'll break 2:30 is the realm of lunacy unless you're some genetic fluke. So this makes a lot of sense to me. 2:30 mark is the pointy end of the field(I have a couple of friends who were there back in the day) For my age group a BQ time is 3:25, so it would probably be reasonable to say someone healthy(not overweight, eats right) and willing to put in the work should be able to get into range of that number, maybe a 3:30- 3:40. Edited by mike761 2015-10-13 1:54 PM |
| 2015-10-13 2:15 PM in reply to: mike761 |
Pro 6520 Bellingham, WA | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? As you get older, I think the biggest challenge is staying injury free while progressively increasing workload. When you get to a certain volume it can become very difficult. |
| 2015-10-13 3:46 PM in reply to: mike761 |
Master 4118 Toronto Bronze member | Subject: RE: Possible marathon time ??? Originally posted by mike761 Originally posted by Khyron For an uninjured male who isn't overweight I'd say your Boston qualify time is a fair marker that some people just can't make, but a lot can. Going sub 3 at 40+ is not going to happen for everyone but isn't an insane goal if you can run 50+ miles/week. Thinking you'll break 2:30 is the realm of lunacy unless you're some genetic fluke. So this makes a lot of sense to me. 2:30 mark is the pointy end of the field(I have a couple of friends who were there back in the day) For my age group a BQ time is 3:25, so it would probably be reasonable to say someone healthy(not overweight, eats right) and willing to put in the work should be able to get into range of that number, maybe a 3:30- 3:40. On the first try? Maybe. There are so many variables - now, maybe on the second or third try with consistent training blocks I would agree. There's some base building and refining of the schedule and plan that works best for the marathon distance. It is not purely a mileage thing. Finding the balance of intensity and mileage to get to the start line uninjured with enough in the legs to get through and there are definitely pacing tactics in a race that come with some experience. Getting the mind and legs prepared for the post-20 miles zone in the race setting is very difficult on the first try because there's no real way to simulate it. They don't call it 'the wall' for nothing. Could be done but it's not a sure bet. |
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| Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon Pages: 1 2 |  Started by jdl2012Views: 4729 Posts: 31 | |
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