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2017-12-16 8:35 AM

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Subject: Venture Capital
Have you guys seen this:
https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-share-us-venture-capital-activity...

Let me give you the bottom line: "more than three-quarters of U.S. venture capital (VC) dollars went to companies in California, New York and Massachusetts"

If this country is going to grow, it will need to do so by embracing the innovation economy. Growth is not going to happen if we have 95% of states sitting on the sidelines.


2017-12-16 9:00 PM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

Originally posted by Oysterboy Have you guys seen this: https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-share-us-venture-capital-activity... Let me give you the bottom line: "more than three-quarters of U.S. venture capital (VC) dollars went to companies in California, New York and Massachusetts" If this country is going to grow, it will need to do so by embracing the innovation economy. Growth is not going to happen if we have 95% of states sitting on the sidelines.

I think it has a little to do with Venture Capital being a relative new thing from the technology boom and most of the technology companies were in those areas.  I think it could be about geography appeal and overall population size as well.  If a new startup tech company wanted to get going in Omaha and hire 500 software developers it would be tough going and even tougher to get 500 of them to relocate to sunny Omaha.

So, I'm not sure that I agree with you that the rest of the states are sitting on the sidelines as much as it we're just doing different things.  Manufacturing and other industries are thriving in many middle states and the coasts are sitting on the sidelines.

Either way though I do agree with you the more we all get engaged in different industries the better we are all because it more efficiently utilizes our workforce as a nation.

2017-12-17 8:14 AM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
Originally posted by Oysterboy

Have you guys seen this:
https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-share-us-venture-capital-activity...

Let me give you the bottom line: "more than three-quarters of U.S. venture capital (VC) dollars went to companies in California, New York and Massachusetts"

If this country is going to grow, it will need to do so by embracing the innovation economy. Growth is not going to happen if we have 95% of states sitting on the sidelines.


VC's invest where businesses are and businesses are created where skilled talent resides. Its pretty simple actually.
2017-12-17 8:18 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
From the bureau of labor statistics ( https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001) the number of manufacturing jobs has steadily increased since 2010, but we are miles from where we were when we had a robust and affluent middle class. I have strong reservations about how much this can be used as a vehicle to revitalize the middle class. Sure, part of the solution, but the real growth has to be in next-gen technologies. The future is not going to be fueled by 19th and 20th century solutions.



Edited by Oysterboy 2017-12-17 8:19 AM
2017-12-17 6:59 PM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

Originally posted by Oysterboy From the bureau of labor statistics ( https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001) the number of manufacturing jobs has steadily increased since 2010, but we are miles from where we were when we had a robust and affluent middle class. I have strong reservations about how much this can be used as a vehicle to revitalize the middle class. Sure, part of the solution, but the real growth has to be in next-gen technologies. The future is not going to be fueled by 19th and 20th century solutions.

We outsourced our middle class prosperity through government programs that incentivized people to send those jobs overseas.  The tide is shifting in the USA and a big chunk of these jobs are already starting to come back. 
Everybody likes to hold up China's GDP growth and prosperity, but it's American prosperity that was outsourced to China at the expense of the American workers.  If we didn't outsource to them the way we have the past several decades then their economy would still be in the toilet and ours would be booming.

2017-12-18 12:28 PM
in reply to: #5232845

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
A basic tenant of macroeconomics is that jobs flow to suitably equipped labor markets. The Cold War helped skew this a bit by taking some labor markets (ie China) off the table. Throw in the end of the
Cold War, modern telecom and the WWW, and a govt with its head up its butt and voila...


2017-12-18 12:36 PM
in reply to: #5232931

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
I think the question has to be asked if we want these jobs back at all. I am talking about those that are paying Chinese workers a passable wage in China that will just not work in the USA. I think a lot of these jobs, and indeed a hunk of US wealth, are gone for good. This is why we need to look forward, not behind
2017-12-18 12:55 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

We outsourced our middle class prosperity through government programs that incentivized people to send those jobs overseas.  The tide is shifting in the USA and a big chunk of these jobs are already starting to come back. 

Outsourced yes.  Government programs... not really.  It was more the "new" Wharton school of business line of thought teaching all their MBAs the benefits of offshoring.  And as for your last sentence... lol tell me how many articles of clothing or consumer electronics you've bought lately that were made in the USA.  There are a few I can think of, but it takes some head scratching.

Short of extreme tariffs, which are another can of worms, there's not much that will change that behavior.  China has lower wages in general, but also is pretty much the wild west when it comes to worker rights and worker safety.  We protect our own here in the U.S. but that also means our employees cost more.

China is starting to raise those standards, but then of course Vietnam is the new China for offshoring.  Or South America.  Or whatever is next...

2017-12-18 1:05 PM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
Originally posted by spudone

We outsourced our middle class prosperity through government programs that incentivized people to send those jobs overseas.  The tide is shifting in the USA and a big chunk of these jobs are already starting to come back. 

Outsourced yes.  Government programs... not really.  It was more the "new" Wharton school of business line of thought teaching all their MBAs the benefits of offshoring.  And as for your last sentence... lol tell me how many articles of clothing or consumer electronics you've bought lately that were made in the USA.  There are a few I can think of, but it takes some head scratching.

Short of extreme tariffs, which are another can of worms, there's not much that will change that behavior.  China has lower wages in general, but also is pretty much the wild west when it comes to worker rights and worker safety.  We protect our own here in the U.S. but that also means our employees cost more.

China is starting to raise those standards, but then of course Vietnam is the new China for offshoring.  Or South America.  Or whatever is next...



+1 Spud. I think our govt could have stepped in a maybe slowed things up but we are talking about this problem being decades in the making (I think I have seen the peak of US wealth as a share of global GDP being in the early 1970s). Frankly, there is just no way to really stop the offshoring of jobs once those labor markets were opened to US companies after the end of the cold war.
2017-12-18 1:11 PM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
Here's another thing that doesn't help the overall picture. While jobs in manufacturing have declined, overall US worker productivity (except for a severe dip during the Great Recession - we did have 10% unemployment) has steadily risen. This means we have found a way to produce more with less people. I fear that as manufacturing jobs come back to the US they will be filled by robots rather than humans.



(FT_17.07.18_manufacturing_decline.png)



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2017-12-18 2:02 PM
in reply to: spudone

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

Originally posted by spudone

We outsourced our middle class prosperity through government programs that incentivized people to send those jobs overseas.  The tide is shifting in the USA and a big chunk of these jobs are already starting to come back. 

Outsourced yes.  Government programs... not really.  It was more the "new" Wharton school of business line of thought teaching all their MBAs the benefits of offshoring.  And as for your last sentence... lol tell me how many articles of clothing or consumer electronics you've bought lately that were made in the USA.  There are a few I can think of, but it takes some head scratching.

Short of extreme tariffs, which are another can of worms, there's not much that will change that behavior.  China has lower wages in general, but also is pretty much the wild west when it comes to worker rights and worker safety.  We protect our own here in the U.S. but that also means our employees cost more.

China is starting to raise those standards, but then of course Vietnam is the new China for offshoring.  Or South America.  Or whatever is next...

I do agree that offshoring was all the rage for many years and in many instances it was tolerated because everything was cheaper.  However, the reasons for it being cheaper can and do change and often depend on the government.  For example I can hire the slave labor in China and save money on the labor, but I also save money on taxes and such.  However, I increase my costs in shipping and due to the quality often lagging my prices end up being lower.  Kind of like all the walmart junk.  It's quite literally junk, but it's the only thing I can buy now.

I have some first person experience with offshoring myself.  I ran the Network Engineering team at a $5B teleservices company.  We had ~60,000 employees corporate wide and outsourced over half of them to India, Jamaica, and the Philippines.  The labor rates were dirt cheap, but we also had to spend a lot of money (millions per month) to get the voice services over there, but it still made financial sense.  Every company in America was racing to outsource all of their customer service calls over seas to save money.  However, I'm sure you guys all recall the backlash about 10 years ago due to how terrible the service was and the language barrier from accents was hard to understand.  We ended up shifting our model to a zero outsourcing model because the customers demanded it and the savings wasn't worthwhile.
So with manufactured goods, it's still the same type of thing where every company has to look at the total cost savings and compare it to domestic.  Yes, there are greater expenses from labor and facilities here, but there's also better treatment of employees and higher quality.  Now with a 15% decrease in taxes for corporations it moves the needle yet again in favor of bringing things back.  I'm not naive enough to believe that every job is coming back, but I think it is naive to also believe that none of them are coming back.  The needle shifts and companies on the bubble will come back because the majority of American businesses do truly want to manufacture their products in America and with a Federal government in place that is more friendly to business they will do just that.



2017-12-19 10:37 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
Again though, I think it will depend on the type of product being manufactured and what the cost/benefit of manufacturing offshore is. I agree that manufacturing that requires an educated and sophisticated labor source will be attracted to coming back . (This is what has kept Germany in the game). But the manufacturers that are generating consumer schlock may not see a benefit in onshoreing. One unknown here is how strongly China will react if we start to put a dent in their labor markets. They are currency manipulators of an epic proportion and will put up a fight to keep those jobs.
2017-12-19 10:42 AM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

Originally posted by Oysterboy Again though, I think it will depend on the type of product being manufactured and what the cost/benefit of manufacturing offshore is. I agree that manufacturing that requires an educated and sophisticated labor source will be attracted to coming back . (This is what has kept Germany in the game). But the manufacturers that are generating consumer schlock may not see a benefit in onshoreing. One unknown here is how strongly China will react if we start to put a dent in their labor markets. They are currency manipulators of an epic proportion and will put up a fight to keep those jobs.

I definitely agree with you that it won't be for everyone.  I guess my overall point is that by moving the needle Trump will make it more appealing for businesses to come back.  Not all, but a significant enough percentage that it will have an impact.

 

2017-12-21 5:46 AM
in reply to: #5232932

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital
I’m really curious what China’s response will be if this starts to hit their economy.
2017-12-21 3:04 PM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Venture Capital

Originally posted by Oysterboy I’m really curious what China’s response will be if this starts to hit their economy.

Not just China but everywhere else too.

I read an article last night that more than 25% of Canadian based companies are considering moving their operations to the US because of tax laws and potential changes to NAFTA.
There were some downright funny headlines from countries in Europe saying the tax cuts were unfair because it would effect goods purchased from Europe.  lol

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