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2018-11-05 9:54 AM

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
Every news media outlet has maxed out the rhetoric! If Trump wins it will be the end of the world. If dems win the house they will take your guns, open the boarders, impeach Trump and repeal the tax cuts.

Fact is nothing is really going to change! Neither party will have a super majority to push anything past Trump's veto. So basically there will be gridlock in Congress for the next 2 years. The economy will continue to grow as all economic indicators at or near an all-time high, unemployment at an all-time low. Trump will continue to be Trump and the media will continue to bash him every day. The House, if the dems take it, would look like idiots if the impeach Trump knowing it won't get passed a republican Senate.

I think the polls are useless because a race that shows X candidate up 4% in the polls means nothing if the other side has 5% more actually show up to vote. It has to be tough to predict who will actually show up to vote. It's one thing to tell a pollster "Yes, I plan to vote" It another thing to find a baby sitter or take off work early to drive to the polls and stand in line for an hour.


2018-11-05 11:26 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Fort Wayne, IN
Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
All polls have to make assumptions regarding population distributions and a representative sample being polled. This has become much more difficult in the Trump era. The pollsters have no clue.
2018-11-05 11:39 AM
in reply to: nickster

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
Originally posted by nickster

All polls have to make assumptions regarding population distributions and a representative sample being polled. This has become much more difficult in the Trump era. The pollsters have no clue.


I agree pollsters are clueless. Trump has destroyed all their models. I find it interesting that reputable polls can differ by as much as 10% and yet each poll claims a margin of error of +/-3%. Some polls only poll 'likely voters' which makes so much more sense than a random sample. I think all polling entities will need to do a post mortem after the mid-terms to recalculate their models to account for the 'Trump effect'.

2018-11-05 11:41 AM
in reply to: nickster

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Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic

Maybe they should go see the massive crowds President Trump has been drawing.  My 18 yr old twins got to an event 4 hours early and did not get in......they are trying again today at another venue, this time their brother is along as well.

2018-11-05 12:41 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Fort Wayne, IN
Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
The ± assumes you have a random sample that follows the predicted distribution. This never happens.
2018-11-05 12:43 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
I'm in Fort Wayne where Trump is speaking tonight at 6:30. The lines were already forming at 7 this morning. I got tickets, but no way I will get in. I have to work until 4 and the doors open at 3:30.


2018-11-05 12:55 PM
in reply to: nickster

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Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic

My kids are in line in SE Mo. already....we'll see.  I think they're nuts....but they are excited to vote tomorrow.....you know,  two 18 year olds and a 20 year old......part of the "revolution" of young voters against the Republicans.  bwaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahaha!!!

2018-11-05 4:10 PM
in reply to: #5251502

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Subject: RE: The end of democracy....the end of the republic
So in Fort Wayne, there are THOUSANDS of people in like at the Trump rally, so who is the local news interviewing? The 20 people protesting the rally across the street!
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