What if..............

Over the past weeks, as Coronavirus has gone from a minor news report out of China to a Worldwide Pandemic, I’ve sat and quietly read all that has been posted here in Political Joe.  I rarely post in here because this forum is largely made up of those "Preaching to the choir" and I sometimes don't sing the same song.  Often I’ve had to walk away from my computer to avoid lashing out at less than thoughtful comments that have been made, and frequently I’ve yelled back at my computer as half-truths or outright misrepresentations have scrolled across my screen.

I’d like to try and engage in a rational, thoughtful discussion about what’s happening in our world today.  Whether we like it or not, Coronavirus is here.  Whether we agree with the response or not, governments, including ours, have responded with restrictions on our daily life to battle this unseen enemy.

So what makes me qualified to speak about this?  I’m not.  I have a degree in Cellular Biology and Exercise Physiology.  When I was in college, a very long time ago, I planned to go on to Medical School but was unsure of a specialty so my undergraduate course of study included, among other things, an introductory course in Epidemiology and a course in Infectious Epidemiology.  I also had WAY too much upper-level math including a couple of semesters of statistics and statistical analysis.  We’ll set aside all the Biology, Chemistry, and Organic Chemistry that I also had.  What all that means is that I have just enough education on this topic to be dangerous.

I’ve heard more times than I can recall that Coronavirus is just bad flu.  In quite a lot of ways, that may be true.  Some people will become infected and experience very mild symptoms - similar to flu symptoms.  Indeed some will become infected and remain asymptomatic – have no symptoms at all.  However, in both of those cases, the infected individual would become contagious and be transmitting the virus into the environment around them, potentially infecting others.  Others will become infected and develop more serious symptoms, although they may well be able to fend off severe illness with no medical intervention.  Unfortunately, there is a segment of the population – about 20% of those infected - that will develop severe illness requiring advanced medical intervention.  We’ll come back to the “advanced medical intervention” in a moment.  It’s VERY important to understand that research has shown an individual will become contagious shortly after an infection, but BEFORE any symptoms appear – that means someone can be spreading the virus with absolutely no knowledge or outward sign that he/she is infected.

The flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1% Worldwide across all ages, socio-economic classes, etc.  Currently, it appears Coronavirus has a mortality rate of around 2.3%.  I know the argument – “There are quite a large number of unreported cases of infection from people who recovered, that if reported, would drive the overall mortality rate down.”  That’s entirely true.  However, it’s also true that the mortality rate of those over 80-years old is 14.8%; those 70-79 it’s 8.0%; those 60-69 it’s 3.6%.  Those are hard numbers, based on the number of presenting cases within those age-groups – that have nothing to do with unreported cases.  Coronavirus is NOT the flu.

Another way that Coronavirus might be considered similar to the flu is how it spreads.  Let’s look at that for a moment.  I’m going to link to a video I discovered on the Slowtwitch Forum.  When I saw this, my first thought was, “Where was this when I was in school?” Because it explains exponential growth in a clear, understandable manner.  Then it shows how that growth applies to a population with multiple communities.  The video is 9-minutes long.  It explains the math behind such things as how authorities knew the outbreak in China was coming under control, what authorities in Italy are currently analyzing data to see, and what is driving the current restrictions here in the States.  I submit you can’t participate in a rational discussion about this Pandemic if you don’t have at least a basic understanding of exponential growth and logistic curves as discussed in this video.  I feel compelled, given where I’m posting this, to say this video is dealing with mathematical certainty so there’s no politics involved at all.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=youtu.be

Earlier I’d said that roughly 20% of those infected will require medical intervention.  With our new understanding of the numbers, we can see that 20% of those infected could be a staggeringly large number.  Of those requiring advanced medical intervention, there are various estimates of how many may require an Intensive Care Unit bed and/or a ventilator to assist breathing and prolong life allowing the body time to fight the infection.  Do you know how many viral diseases have been cured in the history of mankind?  Go ahead, Google it.  The answer is ZERO.  Not a single viral disease has been cured by medicine.  Some viral diseases have been eradicated - Smallpox for example - but no viral diseases have been cured.   There are indeed vaccines – the flu vaccine comes to mind.  However, vaccines don’t cure the disease.  Vaccines prime your body’s immune system so your body can defeat the virus.  So now we have a staggeringly large number of patients that may need an ICU bed and ventilator to provide time for their body to fight the disease - but at this time of year, a large number of the beds and ventilators are in use treating flu patients.  Unfortunately, there’s a stunning lack of hospital beds in the United States.   It seems capitalism doesn’t value having empty hospital beds on the off-chance there may be a Pandemic - that isn't a political statement, it's an objective fact that there's no profit in an empty bed.  The U.S. has 2.8 beds per 1,000 people.  Compare that with Japan at 13.1, or Germany at 8.1.  Beyond the shortage of beds, the ventilators that will be needed are in even shorter supply, with some estimates as high as a shortfall of 100,000 ventilators.

As I write this, Italy’s healthcare system is on the verge of collapse – by the way, Italy has 3.2 beds per 1,000 population, or more beds per capita than the United States.  They are prepared to begin rationing health care to those with the most likelihood of a positive outcome – stated another way, denying healthcare to the most at-risk population.  Imagine for just a moment, your mother or father becoming ill, going to the hospital, and being told, "Go home."  Italy is on the brink of doing just that.  Right now, the United States is about 2-weeks behind Italy.  Can what’s happening in Italy happen in the United States?  Many leading experts say it not only can happen but WILL happen.

Enter social distancing.  The goal of social distancing is to “flatten the curve.”  By slowing the growth rate of the outbreak, the patient load can be spread over a longer time-frame, allowing the medical resources to be brought to bear without overwhelming the system such as is happening today in Italy.

If you want a deeper explanation, you can take a look at the first 15-20 minutes of this podcast with a World-renowned Epidemiologist Michael Olsetholm - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3URhJx0NSw.  Certainly you can watch the entire video but they get into some peripheral information that isn't directly pertinent to the discussion at hand.

So that’s a REALLY REALLY basic explanation of what’s going on, "Coronavirus for Dummies" if you will (I'm not implying anyone is dumb, simply using a recognizable phrase of speech).  This country is not ready for the numbers that will be seen on daily news casts in the coming days and weeks.  While us rationally discussing the Pandemic won't make the country any more prepared, it may allow us to come together, at least for a moment.  It has saddened me beyond words the ridiculous nature of some of the comments in this forum, many of which had ZERO factual content but were long on political posturing.  EVERYTHING I said above is easily verifiable with a simple Google search which will reveal multiple sources saying essentially the same thing.  This virus doesn’t care about left, right, or middle – it will infect and kill equally.  This virus could give a rats arse about discrediting Donald Trump, or if Biden wins or loses.  The incredible refusal of many to recognize the seriousness of the situation as the entire World shuts down and the bottom falls out of the World economy is beyond understanding.  To then suggest this is all some political conspiracy is stunning.

I welcome any comments.  If you come at me with political bullchit I’ll simply ignore you.  If it makes you feel better about yourself to attack me, feel free, I have broad shoulders; but don't expect a response.   If you want to discuss facts I’m all ears as there are many things to discuss that I haven’t talked about.  For example, how long will it take the economy to recover?  Just how bad a hit will the economy take?  Are we on the verge of a recession?  A depression?  A World depression?  How bad are YOU going to be hit economically?  How long do you think this will last?  Are you ready to hole up for an extended period of time?

Oh, and most importantly - Where the heck are we supposed to get toilet paper?

Thanks for reading.

OK, I'll go first.

I agree with LB that there's beginning to be panic.  I respectfully don't fully agree with what's behind the panic but there's little doubt people are becoming unhinged.

For example, we live in a small town - about 5,000 people - in southern Indiana.  We have two options for grocercies - a Kroger's subsidiary or Walmart, well I guess four options if you include driving 25 miles up to the Kroger's or Sam's Club.  At any rate, we went to Walmart on Saturday to do our normal grocery shopping.  A couple of things we saw -

• There was a woman pushing a shopping cart that must have had 20 boxes of Tampons and another 20 boxes of Stayfree pads.  She also had maybe a dozen bottles of KY Jelly.  I mean really, just what is that woman preparing for?  I don't even want to think about what all the KY is for.
• There was a guy with a shopping cart full of Tide detergent.  At least he'll have clean clothes.
• There were 5 guys, clearly together, all appeared to be in their early 20's that were literally running through the store.  Imagine a train of carts.  It appeared fairly obvious they didn't know the layout of the store and given that this particular Walmart moves things around almost every night, even if you are in there every day you wouldn't know the layout.  Anyway, they'd run down an isle, stop and indiscriminately begin throwing stuff into their carts, then they'd run to another location and do the same.  It was pretty comical to watch how they'd stop, look around quickly and just start frantically grabbing, then turn around and start grabbing again.  I suspect they may of had some surprises when they got all the stuff home.
• There was a guy, had to be 300+ pounds.  I'm in no way judging, but him pushing two carts full of Pepsi might explain his stunning physique.
• ZERO toilet paper, ZERO paper towels, ZERO disinfectiant, hand sanitizer, etc.
• ZERO bulk goods - rice, beans, etc.

Everything else in the store, while at lower levels than normal, was available.  We were able to get everything we'd gone to purchast except bulk rice.  I don't get the hoarding.  Nothing on any news channel implies the supply chain will be impacted.  In fact, it's repeatedly been stated across all the news outlets that the supply chain is intact.  So what's driving the irrational hoarding and panic buying?

I hadn't thought about that.  I get my news from multiple sources.  They all have their own slant and agenda but when you watch a broad cross-section of the available news channels you can generally discover the middle ground that likely holds the truth.  That said, I don't believe a word coming out of ANY politicians mouth - be they Dem or Pub.  If there lips are moving, they're lying as far as I'm concerned.  Does that make me a cynical old man?

Yes.  There are unintended consequences to everything.  If your view is too narrow or singular you may miss a much bigger truck coming at you.  10-20 million people out of work is a big truck.  Societal politeness is a precarious perch......it's mostly propped up because most needs are met.  When it dissolves, and I've stood right in the middle of that......it'll scare you worse then this virus, and it should. 

Most gun shops down here are out, or will be soon, of ammunition.  

Whatever the mechanism turns out to be, the economy must be kept moving to some degree. 

Isn't that kind of like Captain E.J. Smith standing on the bridge of the Titanic giving the command, "Full speed ahead." - In spite of 6 iceberg warnings?  I absolutely agree the world is largely driven by money.  The argument could be made that that's part of the problem.  e.g. There's a shortage of critical care hospital beds because it's not profitable to have unused critical care capacity in the hospitals.  That's great for day to day life, not so much when a medical crisis hits.

Yes, news outlets are businesses and are making money in part based on their ratings.  But does that absolve them of reporting truth?  Should their own agenda take priority over the truth?  Especially in time of crisis?  The other day, I was watching CNN - they were wall to wall, nothing but Coronavirus.  I switched to Fox, where Coronavirus wasn't mentioned for over an hour; didn't even hear the word Coronavirus.  That's arguably the two biggest news sources in the United States, reporting on the same event.  But, I suppose we as a society can continue to go down the path of "believing what we want to believe regardless of facts or data."

LB, with all due respect, it appears you're still choosing to minimize the impact of the virus.  I agree, it's just a virus, but it's killing a large number of people it infects.  Please don't come back at me with "but the flu."  We've had flu pandemics in the past - 2018 comes to mind.  Were that to happen today, where there to be that virulent a flu strain, you'd see public health officials treat that just as they are treating COVID-19.  I agree with you that the majority of people will not develop serious illness - BUT THEY WILL STILL BE VECTORS FOR TRANSMISSION.  That's why all the social distancing is being put into effect.  The 80% are being asked to help protect the 20%.  However, even as we sit here and trade comments, the virus appears to have mutated.  There are increasing reports of serious illness among younger individuals.  I predict there will be a dramatic shift in sentiment if/when this goes from an "old person" illness to an illness that strikes across all age-groups.  The selfishness and utter disregard for each other that has been on display since this all started has been stunning, predictable, and depressing all at the same time.

I absolutely agree there needs to be a massive economic stimulus that includes cash into the hands of people across the country with little regard to the typical qualifiers.  It appears there's at least talk of that happening.  Sadly, since Washington has proven over the past years that you can't believe a word you hear, because it will likely change tomorrow, I'll believe it when I see it.  A number of my athlete's are in law enforcement, they've told me the same thing as you implied (and undoubtedly know) - there's going to be a spike in crime.  Burgleries are going to go up.  Hunger drives people to do things they wouldn't otherwise do.  Will society break-down into anarchy?  I don't think so, but I can imagine a set of circumstances that would end in nearly the same thing.  A strong stimulus package, societal cooperation to stem the pandemic and just a bit of compassion towards each other might just keep us from a very ugly future.

There is talk of additional stimulus.  Will it be enough?  I don't think this is over in a month or two.  The impact this is going to have on the econmy is beyond anything any of us can imagine at this point I suspect.  Bad moon rising.

This is very wrong and is causing first responders and hospital personnel alot of problems.  There is nowhere, at any time, that 2% is considered a large number.  The fact is, fully 94% (and growing as more people are tested) of the people who contract the virus have "mild or no symptoms".   I am now dealing with people all day long who either say they believe they have the virus, or people who just dealt with people who believe they may have the virus.  I have 4 people quarantined because they had to fight a suicidal person who's father just got back from Spain and has a cold, or the flu, or coronavirus.  We just all work under the assumption that we are going to contract the virus at some point.  It is what it is.

Do some reading on deaths attributed to economic recession or depression.   You will easily find numbers that rival or are above the death rates for this virus. 

Crashing the economy is a mistake.  It's ok to see the govt. try to help with that....but that will be lessened as the media keeps portraying this as the end of the world.  How many trillions will be enough.  We can't even get medical experts and the county health department to agree on who should be quarantined, or why.  Don't even get me started on "for how long".

I spent a few minutes yesterday with an 86 year old woman who enjoyed telling me about the polio epidemic and how everyone knew someone who had been affected.  She told me she had no intention of staying inside her  house.  Her exact words "I've been through a few pandemics, as they call them, and I'm not stopping what I do every day."  She made more sense then anyone I talked to all day long.

Yes, yes......I know, I know......but go ahead and keep saying it as if there will hardly be anyone left when this is over. 

In my case, and those I work with, it makes little difference.  We will be exposed, no way around it.  From what we've been told, there are likely 10's or even 100's of thousands of cases that already exist and are not counted. Even without that....the hysteria and fear over contracting the virus THAT WILL HAVE MILD OR NO AFFECT FOR 94% OF THE POPULATION AS IT IS NOW,  is as crazy as anything I've seen in a 33 year career...and we're busy dealing with it.  The media is awesome!  LMAO