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2020-03-18 4:05 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain
THAT WILL HAVE MILD OR NO AFFECT FOR 94% OF THE POPULATION AS IT IS NOW,


Problem is we don't know that. We have very little data and it's changing very quickly.
Last week they said you couldn't catch it twice. They are now wondering
They said kids were not at risk. They are reviewing that

They don't know how it's mutating

We can do the "math" with what we know and if we get it wrong, we're Forked.

I 100% get your economical model. I agree with it. But to decide A over B when you don't know what B is, is a big gamble.


2020-03-18 4:18 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Things are about as locked down as it's going to get here... there is no evidence that this kills A LOT of people. I get the mutation thing....I also get that most of this is out of our control. I know it's not popular, but I also have great faith in God. I just don't have it in me to worry about things I can't control. The last I looked the mortality rate here is 1.5%.....that's a good start. I will bet that it goes down quite a bit more as more and more people are found to be infected with little or no symptoms. I need to start my seed tomatoes tonight.
2020-03-18 8:23 PM
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2020-03-18 8:25 PM
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Cut and paste the above link....its a good one. I'm not able to format it well from my phone.....sorry....ETA....WAIT....I think I got it now

Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-18 8:27 PM
2020-03-19 10:01 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain

Cut and paste the above link....its a good one. I'm not able to format it well from my phone.....sorry....ETA....WAIT....I think I got it now


Interesting

I like this part

"This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open, at least until as I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic."

well, we now know and it would have been catastrophic had they continued on the path they were on.

this discussion pretty predictable economic impact vs uncertain health impact can be applied to other areas...ie global warming.
2020-03-19 5:26 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: What if..............

Well, we've got a couple hundred confirmed cases in Colorado, and hospital docs are already reporting that ICUs are filling up quickly, and that we will be out of beds/vents in a couple weeks time if we continue this trajectory. 

It's not deaths, it's the number of people who need intensive care. A lot of these people in the hospital are under 60.  

If we overload the system, we end up like Italy with far more deaths. Look at their death rate vs China today - surpassed China's death # with 1/3 of the cases. It's not pretty.

Facebook post from a Denver ER doc, in the comments he notes the 19 year old is healthy/no comorbidities:

"More and more.

19 year old kid came home from college but not before going on spring break. Two days later, today, parents carried her in. In their arms. Adult respiratory distress (ARDS), Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECHMO- artificial lungs), tubes everywhere, comatose. Has likely been shedding and inhaling virus for days. (caveat- inconsequential details changed so there is zero chance anyone can figure out who I am describing).

Social distancing for everyone. If you don’t, multiply that kid, your kid, you, grandma by 1000’s.

No more testing supplies for COVID 19. Stop asking for them, there ain’t none.

Day, days if lucky, of masks and personal protective equipment left.

Will run out of ventilators and no chance there is even close to enough ECHMO machines

Rationing blood

Doctors and nurses working their collective off, taking huge risk, at work, so you can stay home.

Real enough for you?

Step up.

Keep your kids away from others. No more than 4 people in a room and 6 feet apart.

Donate blood today and make at least 2 others do it.

Give us back our masks, equipment; we need it more than you do.

Know the way, show the way, go the way.

Onward,

Rich"



2020-03-20 9:35 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: What if..............

Originally posted by Left Brain

This is very wrong and is causing first responders and hospital personnel alot of problems.  There is nowhere, at any time, that 2% is considered a large number.  The fact is, fully 94% (and growing as more people are tested) of the people who contract the virus have "mild or no symptoms".   I am now dealing with people all day long who either say they believe they have the virus, or people who just dealt with people who believe they may have the virus.  I have 4 people quarantined because they had to fight a suicidal person who's father just got back from Spain and has a cold, or the flu, or coronavirus.  We just all work under the assumption that we are going to contract the virus at some point.  It is what it is.

Do some reading on deaths attributed to economic recession or depression.   You will easily find numbers that rival or are above the death rates for this virus. 

Crashing the economy is a mistake.  It's ok to see the govt. try to help with that....but that will be lessened as the media keeps portraying this as the end of the world.  How many trillions will be enough.  We can't even get medical experts and the county health department to agree on who should be quarantined, or why.  Don't even get me started on "for how long".

I spent a few minutes yesterday with an 86 year old woman who enjoyed telling me about the polio epidemic and how everyone knew someone who had been affected.  She told me she had no intention of staying inside her  house.  Her exact words "I've been through a few pandemics, as they call them, and I'm not stopping what I do every day."  She made more sense then anyone I talked to all day long.

Yes, yes......I know, I know......but go ahead and keep saying it as if there will hardly be anyone left when this is over. 

LB, with all possible respect and the acknowledgment that you are absolutely entitled to your opinion.  I believe history will show you to be on the wrong side of this.  NEVER in our lifetimes has a Governor ordered the entire State population to remain home.  NEVER in our lifetimes has a majority of Governers sounded the alarm as is happening today.  NEVER is our lifetimes have hospitals ACROSS THE COUNTRY been overwhelmed and running out of supplies.  Trump will have his legacy before this is over and it won't be the one he had hoped for.  Decisions he is making today will drive the death toll up by multile orders of magnitude.  I only hope and pray that it doesn't take the death of one of your loved ones for you to see the error of your thinking.

2020-03-20 10:02 AM
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Originally posted by k9car363

Originally posted by Left Brain

This is very wrong and is causing first responders and hospital personnel alot of problems.  There is nowhere, at any time, that 2% is considered a large number.  The fact is, fully 94% (and growing as more people are tested) of the people who contract the virus have "mild or no symptoms".   I am now dealing with people all day long who either say they believe they have the virus, or people who just dealt with people who believe they may have the virus.  I have 4 people quarantined because they had to fight a suicidal person who's father just got back from Spain and has a cold, or the flu, or coronavirus.  We just all work under the assumption that we are going to contract the virus at some point.  It is what it is.

Do some reading on deaths attributed to economic recession or depression.   You will easily find numbers that rival or are above the death rates for this virus. 

Crashing the economy is a mistake.  It's ok to see the govt. try to help with that....but that will be lessened as the media keeps portraying this as the end of the world.  How many trillions will be enough.  We can't even get medical experts and the county health department to agree on who should be quarantined, or why.  Don't even get me started on "for how long".

I spent a few minutes yesterday with an 86 year old woman who enjoyed telling me about the polio epidemic and how everyone knew someone who had been affected.  She told me she had no intention of staying inside her  house.  Her exact words "I've been through a few pandemics, as they call them, and I'm not stopping what I do every day."  She made more sense then anyone I talked to all day long.

Yes, yes......I know, I know......but go ahead and keep saying it as if there will hardly be anyone left when this is over. 

LB, with all possible respect and the acknowledgment that you are absolutely entitled to your opinion.  I believe history will show you to be on the wrong side of this.  NEVER in our lifetimes has a Governor ordered the entire State population to remain home.  NEVER in our lifetimes has a majority of Governers sounded the alarm as is happening today.  NEVER is our lifetimes have hospitals ACROSS THE COUNTRY been overwhelmed and running out of supplies.  Trump will have his legacy before this is over and it won't be the one he had hoped for.  Decisions he is making today will drive the death toll up by multile orders of magnitude.  I only hope and pray that it doesn't take the death of one of your loved ones for you to see the error of your thinking.

It's not just about our lifetime, is it?  This country, and the world, has lost millions to other epidemics, and will do so again.

The best part about this, for me, is listening to old people as we respond to " family disturbances".  It's funny, because the biggest family argument we deal with right now is families trying to get their elderly to isolate.  For the most part, they're  not  having it.  My own mother-in-law is the same.....she gave that up a few days ago.  They'll tell you they've been through this before and never seen this crap.

Your last comment is a dumb one.....all possible respect to you as well.  That's a comment I have never uttered in 60 years and never would.  I hope and pray against the death of anyone I love every day of my life.  They do the same for me.  Still.....we lose family members, as does everyone. 

Hell dude.....you can't even refrain from making a comment against the President.  LOL  But I'm not surprised.....I'm sure you would do it all differently.

This will pass.  Almost everybody, relatively speaking, will survive.  Most of us won't even know someone who was affected....just like we don't know anyone who died from H1N1....even though we lost 12,500 people.  Geez, I don't even know anyone who died of AIDS....and we lost 658,000 people.

I'll quit typing now......as I watch the men and women I work with respond to calls where people are likely infected,  knowing they are putting themselves and their families in harms way.....your comment just pisses me off even more, and I'm losing all possible respect.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-20 10:03 AM
2020-03-20 10:04 AM
in reply to: k9car363

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To fight cabin fever maybe some feller from Washington could send us all some wildwood flowers so we can “take a trip and never leave the farm”.

It you know the song, you are older than dirt.
2020-03-20 11:47 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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LB, I would like to hear your thoughts on what should have been done differently.
2020-03-20 11:56 AM
in reply to: marcag

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the death rate in the U.S. from COVID-19.

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)


2020-03-20 12:05 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Rogillio

the death rate in the U.S. from COVID-19.

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)


yes, and that will continue to drop as more tests find more people. will it drop to 0.1% like the flu ?
2020-03-20 12:23 PM
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Originally posted by marcag LB, I would like to hear your thoughts on what should have been done differently.

I don't have any. I think 2nd guessing is one of the biggest wastes of time ever.  All you can do, with any action,  is learn and move forward.

One of the things I would like to know, is why the use of Chloroquine was not made public and available until now.  From what I have been reading  and studying,  Chloroquine use is likely the reason death rates in S. Korea and Germany are so low, and the reason they have dropped off in China.  This was likely known, or should have been known, prior to the virus getting a foothold here.  Now we're catching up.

I still say the panic is over the top.  The Gov. of California gets on TV to say that there will be 40,000,000 cases of Covid-19 in that state by the end of summer.  WTF?????   That bastard should be locked up.  The media has scared people unneccesarily.  This is a serious situation, but it won't be life and death for 98% of the population, or more.  That is lost in the hype.

BTW - the death rate here is now down to 1.35%.....likely due to Chloroquine usage, which is being used extensively in NY at this time....until they run out.

 



Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-20 12:35 PM
2020-03-20 1:08 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Rogillio

the death rate in the U.S. from COVID-19.

4.06% March 8 (22 deaths of 541 cases)
3.69% March 9 (26 of 704)
3.01% March 10 (30 of 994)
2.95% March 11 (38 of 1,295)
2.52% March 12 (42 of 1,695)
2.27% March 13 (49 of 2,247)
1.93% March 14 (57 of 2,954)
1.84% March 15 (68 of 3,680)


yes, and that will continue to drop as more tests find more people. will it drop to 0.1% like the flu ?


If 10x the number of people have the virus than the number that have been confirmed then the the mortality would be 0.18%. But given the unknown number of asymptotic cases will never be known as people get the virus and never know if and recover and were never tested will will never know the actual mortality rate.

Honestly though I have no idea how they know the actual mortality rate of the flu. Do people get the flu and never go to the doctor and are never diagnosed? Probably many. As far as I know I’ve never had the flu but even if I was sick with fever and losing it from both ends and had a sore throat and headache I wouldn’t go to a doctor. Other than the ortho doc for sports injury the only time I go to the doctor is for an injury....or a really bad ear infection when I was doing a lot of swimming. Oh and a few years ago I burned my leg really bad on my Harley and it got infected really bad.

2020-03-20 1:11 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain
One of the things I would like to know, is why the use of Chloroquine was not made public and available until now. 


Someone is going to look really stupid when the facts about this comes out.

Originally posted by Left Brain
BTW - the death rate here is now down to 1.35%.....likely due to Chloroquine usage, which is being used extensively in NY at this time....until they run out.


I suspect the rate is dropping because of the spike in known cases due to time and more testing.
2020-03-20 1:13 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Originally posted by Rogillio

Honestly though I have no idea how they know the actual mortality rate of the flu. Do people get the flu and never go to the doctor and are never diagnosed?



My understanding is the have pretty mature models of how many people catch the flu. They have not actaully counted them. These models come from years of experience with it. The problem with COVID19 is it's so new.


2020-03-20 1:18 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain One of the things I would like to know, is why the use of Chloroquine was not made public and available until now. 
Someone is going to look really stupid when the facts about this comes out.
Originally posted by Left Brain BTW - the death rate here is now down to 1.35%.....likely due to Chloroquine usage, which is being used extensively in NY at this time....until they run out.
I suspect the rate is dropping because of the spike in known cases due to time and more testing.

Without question.....that's part of it.  But the drug is obviously helping, when you look worldwide at where it's being used.

Another number to look at, while trying to stem the panic (which should be an absolute TOP tier priority, but it isn't) is the # of cases in a given population.  Currently in the U.S. there are about 50 cases per 1 million people, and Canada is lower.  Do THAT math after you add in the mortality rate IF you even get the virus. 

The media and others ramping this fear up to absurd levels are already stupid....never mind when it's over.

2020-03-20 1:20 PM
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Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by marcag LB, I would like to hear your thoughts on what should have been done differently.

I don't have any. I think 2nd guessing is one of the biggest wastes of time ever.  All you can do, with any action,  is learn and move forward.

One of the things I would like to know, is why the use of Chloroquine was not made public and available until now.  From what I have been reading  and studying,  Chloroquine use is likely the reason death rates in S. Korea and Germany are so low, and the reason they have dropped off in China.  This was likely known, or should have been known, prior to the virus getting a foothold here.  Now we're catching up.

I still say the panic is over the top.  The Gov. of California gets on TV to say that there will be 40,000,000 cases of Covid-19 in that state by the end of summer.  WTF?????   That bastard should be locked up.  The media has scared people unneccesarily.  This is a serious situation, but it won't be life and death for 98% of the population, or more.  That is lost in the hype.

BTW - the death rate here is now down to 1.35%.....likely due to Chloroquine usage, which is being used extensively in NY at this time....until they run out.

 






Don’t be ridiculous! Chloroquine Is used to treat malaria!


Top 40 Malaria countries:

212.24 malaria per thousand = 0.2 COVID-19 cases per million

Next 40 Malaria countries:

7.30 malaria per thousand = 10.1 COVID-19 cases per million

Remaining 154 (non-)Malaria countries:

0.00 malaria per thousand = 68.7 COVID-19 cases per million


Not drawing any wild concluding just adding some facts and data to the discussion. Maybe it’s just a bit coinkydink.
2020-03-20 1:35 PM
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https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/chloroquine-use-in-korea-and-china/

Watch and learn.  LOL

I'm not sure I'm following your sarcasm or lack of it, Rog. 

BUT.....I doubt it's a coincidence that the top malaria countries have the lowest covid-19 rate.  Chloroquine is used extensively in those countries as a preventative to malaria....which also appears to work as a preventative for covid-19.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-20 1:37 PM
2020-03-20 1:42 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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This is the “What if....” thread would let me add one.

What is chloroquine is the cure?

“ 3 International Studies Find Chloroquine with Azithromycin Shows 100% Success Rate in Treating Coronavirus in 6 Days”

What if they find this is an actual cure? What if we all panicked for nothing?

I’ve been reading about this for a few days and have seen nothing to debunk or refute this. This played a part into me moving money into the market amid panic selling. CDC has authorized this as treatment already. So if you test positive and your doc prescribes this and you recover the mortality rate drops like a rock. Our FDA is overly cautious IMO. I hope they are collecting data right now on the number of people being given this vs recovery/death.

Just saying, what if....
2020-03-20 1:52 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Originally posted by Left Brain

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/chloroquine-use-in-korea-and-china/

Watch and learn.  LOL

I'm not sure I'm following your sarcasm or lack of it, Rog. 

BUT.....I doubt it's a coincidence that the top malaria countries have the lowest covid-19 rate.  Chloroquine is used extensively in those countries as a preventative to malaria....which also appears to work as a preventative for covid-19.





C’mon LB. You know I can’t resist the lowest form of wit, sarcasm. I the countries where malaria is most prevalent and chloroquine is given not only as a cure for malaria but as a prophylactic the coronavirus rate is negligible. Go figure. No, seriously think about this. This was a recent analysis (by a guy from the University of Huntsville - just 10 miles from me). He compiled all the data we know about malaria and coronavirus and found this (remarkable) correlation.

I will quote myself though as a caveat: correlation does not equal causation.


2020-03-20 2:09 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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I knew you were.....but I'm too tired to 'cipher.  LOL

2020-03-20 3:08 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Mortality rate now under 1.3%.

2020-03-20 3:43 PM
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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain

Mortality rate now under 1.3%.




Good news is that's down to 13x the flu.

Bad news is that they believe it's much more contagious than the flu



2020-03-20 4:48 PM
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Nah....best news is it's 98.7% survivable.....just wait until a really bad virus hits us. The world will likely implode.
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