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2020-03-25 4:37 PM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Rogillio

I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die.


In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70%
Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization.

The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators.

The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal.

The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet.



What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought.
It


2020-03-25 5:03 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Rogillio

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Rogillio

I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die.


In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70%
Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization.

The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators.

The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal.

The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet.



What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought.
It


What if....just ifing, what if this is Darwinism ? Nature's way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones who can't understand science ? Just a thought

:-)
2020-03-25 6:42 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: What if..............

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio
Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die.
In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70% Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization. The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators. The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal. The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet.
What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought. It
What if....just ifing, what if this is Darwinism ? Nature's way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones who can't understand science ? Just a thought :-)

I kinda think I'm good with either. 

This much I'm pretty sure of.....if mankind lasts another 1000 years or so, or more,  those folks will laugh hysterically at what we thought was settled science.  LOL

We are here in a speck of sand on a gnats arse in time......the arrogance is pretty funny with that in mind....at least to me.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-03-25 6:44 PM
2020-03-26 8:05 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio
Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die.
In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70% Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization. The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators. The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal. The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet.
What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought. It
What if....just ifing, what if this is Darwinism ? Nature's way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones who can't understand science ? Just a thought :-)

I kinda think I'm good with either. 

This much I'm pretty sure of.....if mankind lasts another 1000 years or so, or more,  those folks will laugh hysterically at what we thought was settled science.  LOL

We are here in a speck of sand on a gnats arse in time......the arrogance is pretty funny with that in mind....at least to me.




There are 4 levels of consciousness. Some people evolve from step to step

-Unconscious incompetence. You don’t know what you don’t know
-Conscious incompetence. You realize you don’t know, and you don’t pretend to know. You seek advice from those more advanced in their level of consciousness
-Conscious competence. You are starting to gather a good knowledge, but you continue to be careful. You understand the consequences of your not fully knowing.
-Unconscious competence. You don’t even need to think about it, you just do it.

Top scientists in the world, guys like Fauci are at stage 3.
No real scientist will ever pretend to be at 4 because as you say, people 1000 years from now will laugh at what we know.
People who pretend to know it all, claim to be Geniuses are at level 1.

A level 1 person is a very dangerous person during this kind of situation.
Arrogance is not knowing where one sits on the spectrum and not seeking advice from those further on.

This model has worked well for me over the years.

2020-03-26 8:29 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: What if..............

I'm level 4.  I'm going fishing today, I don't even need to think about it.

2020-03-26 8:32 AM
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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by Left Brain

I'm level 4.  I'm going fishing today, I don't even need to think about it.




At fishing I am level 2 and when I next go fishing I will consult with you because I believe your level4ness and I seek those further along the curve.

My cottage is on a big body of water with tons of bass and mackerel.

Edited by marcag 2020-03-26 8:32 AM


2020-03-26 10:55 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio
Originally posted by marcag
Originally posted by Rogillio I’m a big fan of the odds. Right now 0.02% of Americans have the virus. Think about that. 65k/350M people. It it increases 10 fold that is 0.2%. It it goes up 100 fold that is 2%. And given the mortality rate of 1.4% in the US, that means even if we see a 100x the cases 0.28% of the country will die. Or 99.73% will live and not die.
In large cities, it is easy to see 40% of people catching it, if social distancing not done. Some say as high as 70% Current estimates are 5% of those that catch it require hospitalization. The mortality rate of 1.4% is based on the assumption people can get help. The minute you saturate the system that mortality rate goes to 4%. Watch NYC death rate go up when they run out of ventilators. The current approach is not working. Letting everyone go back to normal, as if nothing was, is fatal. The solution is based on intelligent re-introduction of people into a working society. There are a few parts required for that that aren't there yet.
What if....just what ifing...what of this is Darwininism? What is this is nature’s way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones whose immune system is not up to sniuff? Just a thought. It
What if....just ifing, what if this is Darwinism ? Nature's way of culling the herd and eliminating the ones who can't understand science ? Just a thought :-)

I kinda think I'm good with either. 

This much I'm pretty sure of.....if mankind lasts another 1000 years or so, or more,  those folks will laugh hysterically at what we thought was settled science.  LOL

We are here in a speck of sand on a gnats arse in time......the arrogance is pretty funny with that in mind....at least to me.




There are 4 levels of consciousness. Some people evolve from step to step

-Unconscious incompetence. You don’t know what you don’t know
-Conscious incompetence. You realize you don’t know, and you don’t pretend to know. You seek advice from those more advanced in their level of consciousness
-Conscious competence. You are starting to gather a good knowledge, but you continue to be careful. You understand the consequences of your not fully knowing.
-Unconscious competence. You don’t even need to think about it, you just do it.

Top scientists in the world, guys like Fauci are at stage 3.
No real scientist will ever pretend to be at 4 because as you say, people 1000 years from now will laugh at what we know.
People who pretend to know it all, claim to be Geniuses are at level 1.

A level 1 person is a very dangerous person during this kind of situation.
Arrogance is not knowing where one sits on the spectrum and not seeking advice from those further on.

This model has worked well for me over the years.





Reminds me of a EE professor I once had. He said when he got his bachelors in electrical engineering he thought he had a pretty good grasp of electricity. When he got his masters he decided there were still quite a few things he didn’t know. By the time he got his doctorate he concluded we really don’t know much about the phenomena of electricity.

I think most politicians are narcissistic and naturally believe they are always the smartest person in the room. Doctors tend to err on the side of caution.
2020-03-26 10:45 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: What if..............
Today was a very good day. If you can manage it, I highly recommend a day on the water with a couple of good friends, a cooler of beer, and no phone. The world will look just fine again.
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