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2020-04-02 7:41 PM

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Subject: Hey marcag
It looks like a bit of a surge in your country the last few days....what area is pushing the numbers?


2020-04-03 6:12 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain
It looks like a bit of a surge in your country the last few days....what area is pushing the numbers?


I look at everything in terms of cases/million people, deaths/million.....the US should have about 10x Canada. We are 37million people

I look at this first chart which shows death/million, which to me is the most important measure. Cases/million depends too much on number of people tested.

In solid green, deaths/million in the US.
In solid red, deaths/million in Canada
in solid yellow, deaths/million in Norway, which has done a ton of testing.

The dash numbers are "theoretical" doubling every 5 days (red dash), every 4 days (yellow dash), every 3 days (green dash)

So we are doing "OK", compared to others. We are below doubling every 5 days, you are a bit above every 3 days.

Our death rate/case is 1.53%, you are at 2.41%. I suspect this is partially do to more testing. Norway is .97%. They did lots of testing. I tink the media is right that you are having testing shortcomings.

My biggest concern is we will have severe PPE shortages. We don't have the economic clout to get supplies from other countries.

We did some things the same, some better, some worst. We waited too long to close borders and were negligent at point of entry. We did well at getting people in quarantine.

Today Rob Ford is expected to spill all the data on how long this could last. I suspect the other thing we will get is honest information.

Disclaimer, I generate the graph below from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.Take it as an unscientific indicator.

Edited by marcag 2020-04-03 6:37 AM




(Screenshot 2020-04-03 07.15.24.png)



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2020-04-03 8:44 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

I get all that, and have been looking at the same numbers.  I was asking which Province/City is your worst right now?

2020-04-03 9:09 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

I get all that, and have been looking at the same numbers.  I was asking which Province/City is your worst right now?




I think Montreal has a lot of cases right now. I am not there right now but my daughter is. She was complaining she can't walk her dog without people coming to her to pet and see the dog. She now walks on cemetery land not yet used. Nobody there :-)

I think there a few contributors (personal opinions)
- Lots of testing.
- Public transit. Our subway system is very popular.
- Some religious groups not respecting some of the rules.
- Spring break for Quebec is one week before the other provinces and was not interrupted since things "seemed" under control but weren't
- Quebecers are maybe not as "disciplined". More Latin than anglo saxon blood.


I think there are a few contributors.

Edited by marcag 2020-04-03 9:26 AM
2020-04-03 10:03 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

Thanks. 

We were having a discussion about the virus in other countries yesterday and we were split on whether Quebec, Ontario, or BC likely had the most. 

My city is actually doing a good job staying home.....but then last Sunday, a beautiful day, the local county parks were absolutely packed.  I suppose people, just like my family, needed some new scenery for exercise.  Now we've got all the parks closed.  LOL

I still don't know anybody who knows anybody who knows anybody with the virus.....and that includes my brother on Long Island.\

I still think it's way over-hyped.....but maybe that was needed, I don't know.  I watch the news and it appears New York is melting down from the coverage we see.  Then you do that math and realize 99.3% of New Yorkers DO NOT have the virus and they are getting close to a peak.

Lot's of money to be made right now for security work.....so there's that for my family.

 



Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-03 10:08 AM
2020-04-03 10:21 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

I still don't know anybody who knows anybody who knows anybody with the virus.....and that includes my brother on Long Island.\

I still think it's way over-hyped.....but maybe that was needed, I don't know. 



My son’s college roommate’s friend has it. I suppose with seven degree of Kevin Bacon.....

I agree it was over hyped but maybe that kept the numbers down...at the expense of the economy.

I have give my chickens a bath to fight coronavirus. I heard an oriental nurse on TV say, “We need hen wash, hen wash, hen wash!”

Oops, guess that’s not politically correct. But everyone needs to be able to laugh at themselves. If you cannot laugh at yourself, give me a call and I will laugh at you.


2020-04-03 10:28 AM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag
Originally posted by Left Brain

Thanks. 

We were having a discussion about the virus in other countries yesterday and we were split on whether Quebec, Ontario, or BC likely had the most. 

My city is actually doing a good job staying home.....but then last Sunday, a beautiful day, the local county parks were absolutely packed.  I suppose people, just like my family, needed some new scenery for exercise.  Now we've got all the parks closed.  LOL

I still don't know anybody who knows anybody who knows anybody with the virus.....and that includes my brother on Long Island.\

I still think it's way over-hyped.....but maybe that was needed, I don't know.  I watch the news and it appears New York is melting down from the coverage we see.  Then you do that math and realize 99.3% of New Yorkers DO NOT have the virus and they are getting close to a peak.

Lot's of money to be made right now for security work.....so there's that for my family.

 




Ontario is slow on testing. Quebec has done well. That is why deaths/million is a more meaningful statistic.

Deaths:
Quebec 36/7million
Ontario 67/14million

so very close

But cases
Quebec 5518//7million
Ontario 3255/14million

Quebec is doing a lot more testing.

Keep an eye on the 3M announcement that they were asked to stop shipping to Canada. Nice.
2020-04-03 12:05 PM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

Originally posted by Left Brain

I still don't know anybody who knows anybody who knows anybody with the virus.....and that includes my brother on Long Island.\

I have quite a few acquaintances who have/had it, as well as a very good friend who is waiting on her test results. Most in their 40s. A friend of mine had both her dad and brother in the ICU last week. Brother just had oxygen and came home. Dad was on a vent. Is still in ICU but off the vent now, which is great. My good friend was sick as a dog for a month after a trip to Seattle at the beginning of March - fever, cough, GI distress, aches, you name it. Her family all got it, but more mild - fevers and maybe a cough or feeling bad for a few days. Another friend got it bad, double pneumonia, but didn't have to go into the hospital. Her husband and kids just had bad coughs. 

In everyone I know, seems like one person in the family gets it super bad and is miserable, and the rest of the family get mild symptoms or none. It's weird how it randomly hits some people worse than others. In Colorado, most folks in their 40s are healthy and active, but I'm hearing of a lot of friends of friends who have had to visit the hospital with this due to the pneumonia. 

2020-04-03 12:11 PM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

Do they all catch it in the same place? 

I'm serious....I can't find a single person who knows anyone....and I talk to people all day long and ask them.

2020-04-03 1:03 PM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

Good friend lives in my mountain town and caught it traveling in Seattle.

Everyone else lives in Denver metro area, where there's a decent amount of community spread. I don't even know that any of them know exactly where they caught it.

A couple of weeks ago, I didn't know anyone either (thought I suspected my friend who was sick after Seattle might have it). Didn't take long for it to blow up here to the point that I know people. 



Edited by Stacers 2020-04-03 1:18 PM
2020-04-03 1:39 PM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

Originally posted by Stacers

Good friend lives in my mountain town and caught it traveling in Seattle.

Everyone else lives in Denver metro area, where there's a decent amount of community spread. I don't even know that any of them know exactly where they caught it.

A couple of weeks ago, I didn't know anyone either (thought I suspected my friend who was sick after Seattle might have it). Didn't take long for it to blow up here to the point that I know people. 

I get that.....but we are responding and helping on ambulance runs, family disturbances, etc.  It's not like I'm hiding.  I'm quite sure I've been around plenty of people who have it.....but I don't know any of them, and I don't know anybody who knows anybody.  It's really not a large segment of the population.  There are just over 800 cases in the St. Louis area....there are 3 million people here....so 99.97% don't have it.  It's not like there's someone on every block who is sick.

Do the math for Colorado.  You have 5.6 millions people out there and 3600+/- cases.....99.93% are not sick.

Anyway, be careful. 

We are working 1 week on and 1 week off so someone else can deal with this madness for me next week.  I'm going fishing.



Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-03 1:42 PM


2020-04-03 2:06 PM
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Subject: RE: Hey marcag

At this point, they're only really testing folks who are sick enough to need hospital care here. So doctors are estimating we've probably got 10x that number of cases. Still, I totally agree - even 10x 3300 = 33,000 out of 5.6 million seems like a tiny percentage! 

And yet... My town has 21 cases, with a population of about 9,000. If you assume the authorities are right and that means there are really ~200 cases out there, then that's 2% of the population. Once 2 of every 100 people are sick, you probably know someone.

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