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2020-04-06 6:32 AM

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: Recovery
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

A bit of good news for a change. Both the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have dropped. The graphs on the website above show what looks like what might be a bell curve and (hopefully) we are on the downhill side now.

My hope is that within a month we can start to get out and get on with life.

I think there will be a new ‘normal’ now. My wife now carries sanitary wipes with her everywhere she goes is is constantly wiping her hands and doorknobs and light switches. We looked at a lake house with a realtor yesterday and after the viewing she handed wipes to me and the realtor who was thankful to take and use the wipe.


2020-04-06 9:45 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Expert
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Fort Wayne, IN
Subject: RE: Recovery
I'm hoping we can get the antibody testing done en masse so we can see who has been affected and can safely go back to work.
2020-04-06 11:01 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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1731
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Denver, Colorado
Subject: RE: Recovery
I agree there will be a lot of potential with the the "new normal". I am looking forward to remote work. It was a concept that many employers, including mine, did not want to hear about. Now they did not even had the time to think, as everyone (where possible) had to immediately begin working from home. And guess what: the work is being done. For my University it could be a big deal. My department struggled with finding lab space for new faculty who were coming with their research, their students, their demands. If some of the admin can work from home, there will be a lot of space available for labs.

As for the economy recover, I am remaining optimistic. When comparing this possible financial crisis to the 2008-2009 recession, we will definitelyu recover faster, as there will be a lot of people with many to spend = put back into the economy. In 2010 folks were still hesitatnt to spend, or they did not have money to spend. Currently, we have a lot of people who are still working, they just can't spend money. So once shopping malls and restaurants are open again, the economy will be overflown with the $$ of shopping-hungry people. Thus, I think we will be fine.
2020-04-07 5:57 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by marysia83

I agree there will be a lot of potential with the the "new normal". I am looking forward to remote work. It was a concept that many employers, including mine, did not want to hear about. Now they did not even had the time to think, as everyone (where possible) had to immediately begin working from home. And guess what: the work is being done. For my University it could be a big deal. My department struggled with finding lab space for new faculty who were coming with their research, their students, their demands. If some of the admin can work from home, there will be a lot of space available for labs.

As for the economy recover, I am remaining optimistic. When comparing this possible financial crisis to the 2008-2009 recession, we will definitelyu recover faster, as there will be a lot of people with many to spend = put back into the economy. In 2010 folks were still hesitatnt to spend, or they did not have money to spend. Currently, we have a lot of people who are still working, they just can't spend money. So once shopping malls and restaurants are open again, the economy will be overflown with the $$ of shopping-hungry people. Thus, I think we will be fine.



Heck this working from home may be a way to save the environment as well. I bet your president takes credit for dropping CO2 levels during his last year :-)

Companies will need to figure out some things, but nothing more complex than a pandemic. Insurance and adequate working conditions (desks, chairs...) still need to be worked out. I worked for a multinational software company that tried hard and found more red tape than solutions.

While I do believe we are at the top of the death curve, we are like people chased by lions who ran up a tree. Problem is the Lion is still at the base of the tree. We can't come down from the tree yet.

I hope we learn something from this whole mess but not sure we will.



Edited by marcag 2020-04-07 6:16 AM
2020-04-07 6:15 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Champion
10154
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by marysia83

I agree there will be a lot of potential with the the "new normal". I am looking forward to remote work. It was a concept that many employers, including mine, did not want to hear about. Now they did not even had the time to think, as everyone (where possible) had to immediately begin working from home. And guess what: the work is being done. For my University it could be a big deal. My department struggled with finding lab space for new faculty who were coming with their research, their students, their demands. If some of the admin can work from home, there will be a lot of space available for labs.

As for the economy recover, I am remaining optimistic. When comparing this possible financial crisis to the 2008-2009 recession, we will definitelyu recover faster, as there will be a lot of people with many to spend = put back into the economy. In 2010 folks were still hesitatnt to spend, or they did not have money to spend. Currently, we have a lot of people who are still working, they just can't spend money. So once shopping malls and restaurants are open again, the economy will be overflown with the $$ of shopping-hungry people. Thus, I think we will be fine.



Heck this working from home may be a way to save the environment as well. I bet your president takes credit for dropping CO2 levels during his last year :-)

Companies will need to figure out some things, but nothing more complex than a pandemic. Insurance and adequate working conditions (desks, chairs, insurance...) still need to be worked out. I worked for a multinational software company that tried hard and found more red tape than solutions.

While I do believe we are at the top of the death curve, we are like people chased by lions who ran up a tree. Problem is the Lion is still at the base of the tree. We can't come down from the tree yet.

I hope we learn something from this whole mess but not sure we will.





I was thinking the same thing about telework. The building I used to work in paid like $57,000 a month for electricity. If half of your employees work from home say 2-3 days per week you cut the office space in half. Employees would not have to dive and hour or two every day so would save a lot of gas. Win-win IMO.

2020-04-07 8:44 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Recovery
Hold up here....the kids are still going back to school, right?


2020-04-08 2:21 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Champion
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Tacoma, Washington
Subject: RE: Recovery

My thought is: Unless you were diagnosed, suffered and recovered, or had a "mild case", or were one of the lucky few to be an asymptomatic carrier, then you still have exactly f-all of immunity from this. I see a second wave once we're all let free to go about our daily lives. There's going to be an over-compensation effect for a lot of people, making up for lost time in contact with others (either directly or through regular social activities). All the mechanisms that created that first curve are still there until there is a vaccine.

2020-04-08 10:36 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by Left Brain

Hold up here....the kids are still going back to school, right?


Yes because this remote teaching gig is not what I signed up for!

(I'm actually retiring at the end of this year so I will never go back to a regular classroom.)
2020-04-09 6:21 AM
in reply to: briderdt

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Champion
10154
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by briderdt

My thought is: Unless you were diagnosed, suffered and recovered, or had a "mild case", or were one of the lucky few to be an asymptomatic carrier, then you still have exactly f-all of immunity from this. I see a second wave once we're all let free to go about our daily lives. There's going to be an over-compensation effect for a lot of people, making up for lost time in contact with others (either directly or through regular social activities). All the mechanisms that created that first curve are still there until there is a vaccine.




Same could be said of seasonal flu but there is a reason they call it seasonal. I’m guessing fewer colds and sneezes results in less spreading.
2020-04-09 9:54 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Recovery

I don't know.  From what I read the asymptomatic are not "the lucky few", but likely the majority.  It's not like people in New York are not riding the subway, a germ factory, and from the pictures I've seen there are quite a few people not exactly staying away from others, and the numbers are dropping.  Either this thing is not as contagious as they say (not likely), or the 86% they site as carrying but not symptomatic is correct (more likely).   If that's the case, herd immunity will come about faster than considered.

2020-04-11 12:19 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Recovery


2020-04-14 7:07 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Recovery
There are two types of people. Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data...



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2020-04-14 8:08 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by Rogillio

There are two types of people. Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data...


and those that fill their own theories with missing data :-)

I hope there is a level of herd immunity out there but there are as many factors saying it doesn't exist as there are that say it's there.

We are just guessing.

One theory of why California was hit less is that the bulk of infection come through Europe not directly from China. All theories. We just don't know.

The antibody testing is a key in figuring out what happened and guiding us in the future.

Edited by marcag 2020-04-14 8:10 AM
2020-04-14 11:39 AM
in reply to: marcag

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Champion
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Alabama
Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by Rogillio

There are two types of people. Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data...


and those that fill their own theories with missing data :-)

I hope there is a level of herd immunity out there but there are as many factors saying it doesn't exist as there are that say it's there.

We are just guessing.

One theory of why California was hit less is that the bulk of infection come through Europe not directly from China. All theories. We just don't know.

The antibody testing is a key in figuring out what happened and guiding us in the future.


Well if we are all guessing then I’m guessing there is a segment in our society that is prone to getting it - either because of other health issues or genetics. Perhaps we are approaching the point where everyone who was predisposed for get it has gotten it. If it spreads as easily as they say I would think with days the 93.35% of people would have been exposed. My guess is their immune system fought it off and they never knew that had it.

Then again, I’m an eternal optimist.
2020-04-14 3:35 PM
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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by Rogillio

Well if we are all guessing then I’m guessing there is a segment in our society that is prone to getting it - either because of other health issues or genetics. Perhaps we are approaching the point where everyone who was predisposed for get it has gotten it. If it spreads as easily as they say I would think with days the 93.35% of people would have been exposed. My guess is their immune system fought it off and they never knew that had it.

Then again, I’m an eternal optimist.


IMO very unlikely.

Based on other countries it's probably more in the order of 1% of the US population has been exposed to the virus. Half of those would show symptoms.




Edited by marcag 2020-04-14 3:35 PM
2020-04-15 12:09 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Recovery

I'll just leave this here......

https://www.foxnews.com/media/stanford-professor-jay-bhattacharya-coronavirus-death-rate



Edited by Left Brain 2020-04-15 12:11 AM


2020-04-15 5:17 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by Left Brain

I'll just leave this here......

https://www.foxnews.com/media/stanford-professor-jay-bhattacharya-coronavirus-death-rate




A study of 200 people....ok

Here is one of 9000 people and they found a 1% infection rate.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-in...


Articles on CNN and Fox...ha.....

Bottom line. WE DON'T KNOW.
2020-04-15 6:30 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Expert
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Fort Wayne, IN
Subject: RE: Recovery
My daughter is a nurse in an ICU unit. At their facility, they have a unit with Covid-19 patients and another with suspected Covid-19 patients. Until this week, they only had the tests that took several days to get results, hence the need for the suspected Covid-19 patients. This week they got the 15 minute test and found that only 3 of the 26 suspect patients tested positive.

For the last month I have been tracking the Covid-19 tests, positive tests, and deaths for Indiana overall and Marion county (Indianapolis) ad Allen county (Fort Wayne) where I live. The trends have all been linear increases, except for the number of people tested that has had an exponential element to the slope. What I noticed yesterday was the small print that stated the data was based on when the data and not when the data was taken, so the trends do not necessarily represent what is actually happening day to day.
2020-04-15 7:16 AM
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Subject: RE: Recovery
Originally posted by nickster

My daughter is a nurse in an ICU unit. At their facility, they have a unit with Covid-19 patients and another with suspected Covid-19 patients. Until this week, they only had the tests that took several days to get results, hence the need for the suspected Covid-19 patients. This week they got the 15 minute test and found that only 3 of the 26 suspect patients tested positive.

For the last month I have been tracking the Covid-19 tests, positive tests, and deaths for Indiana overall and Marion county (Indianapolis) ad Allen county (Fort Wayne) where I live. The trends have all been linear increases, except for the number of people tested that has had an exponential element to the slope. What I noticed yesterday was the small print that stated the data was based on when the data and not when the data was taken, so the trends do not necessarily represent what is actually happening day to day.



You must be proud of what your daughter does !!!! Thank her for us.

My gut feeling

337,000,000 people
1% exposed = 3,337,000 exposed
1/2 of those show no symptons.....other 1/2 = 1,685,000 had symptons

Let's say 1% of those die = 16,850...you are currently at double that .

Maybe it's 2% exposed or maybe the death rate is 2%....

But my gut says these are the orders of magnitude. More than happy to be wrong

Of course these will vary a lot from region to region, especially with density of population, race....

Edited by marcag 2020-04-15 7:17 AM
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