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2007-04-30 11:35 AM

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Subject: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
I just watched a documentary called Crude Awakening about the impending oil crash (that the world will begin to run out of oil in the next few decades). I expect the PR firms to shift into high gear to try to debunk this as they did with global warming, so by this time next year there will be a clear split between people who believe that oil will be available to all forever and those who realize that it will be depleted sooner rather than later.

Some interesting things that I picked up from this documentary:

- To replace oil with nuclear energy we would need to build 10,000 of the largest nuclear facilities in existence today, and, if we did that, we would exhaust uranium supplies in 10 to 20 years.

- The middle East pumps out millions of barrels of oil per year, but never revises the number of how much is left. It just stays the same even though it is clear that one day their reserves will run out.

- Our economic system is absolutely dependent on the availability of cheap oil. The valuation of companies and their forecasts are based on this assumption.

So, this is great news for cyclists, and, I would argue, the world as a whole. Once oil is gone, pollution will decline dramatically. Like it or not, populations will follow. Humans will be forced to change the way they live, work, interact. There is a good chance that air travel will become impossible thereby reducing the risk of spreading disease from continent to continent.

The only potential problem is the transition period where countries fight for the last of the oil. Hopefully we won't destroy the human race in the transition through war.


2007-04-30 11:49 AM
in reply to: #781504

Veteran
143
10025
Raleigh, NC
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
Great news for cyclists. "Hopefully humanity won't be destroyed".

Yay!
2007-04-30 11:59 AM
in reply to: #781530

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
watsonrm - 2007-04-30 12:49 PM

Great news for cyclists. "Hopefully humanity won't be destroyed".

Yay!


Yeah, it was kinda meant tongue in cheek, but the point is that it is utterly inevitable that we will run out of oil, so we either get smart about preparing for the adaptation or we head straight into chaos.
2007-04-30 12:02 PM
in reply to: #781504

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
It's in a documentary, so it must be true!!!
2007-04-30 12:07 PM
in reply to: #781504

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2007-04-30 12:08 PM
in reply to: #781560

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
bradword - 2007-04-30 1:02 PM

It's in a documentary, so it must be true!!!


It threatens the comfy view that everything will always stay the way it is today, so it must be false!


2007-04-30 12:12 PM
in reply to: #781504

Pro
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Hailey, ID
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

Burden of proof lies on the shoulders of those making the new assumptions. 

 

*stirs the pot*

 

Group hug! 

2007-04-30 12:17 PM
in reply to: #781588

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
bradword - 2007-04-30 1:12 PM

Burden of proof lies on the shoulders of those making the new assumptions. 

 

*stirs the pot*

 

Group hug! 



What new assumptions?

Do you agree that oil is a non-renewable resource?
2007-04-30 12:58 PM
in reply to: #781504

Pro
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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
So, I'll assume everybody is smart enough to realize that one day the world will run out of oil. That is inevitable. It may be in 40 years, maybe 80 or even 100 years, but it will happen.

I decided that the best place to find the most optimistic viewpoint would be a website that would poo-poo the idea of the world running out of oil. I found it here:

http://www.reason.com/news/show/36645.html

Imagine my surprise, after basically using the whole article to say " There's nothing to worry about" they end it with this:

"One day, the oil age will end. As with all resources, there is ultimately a finite supply of oil. So it is not yet clear how the world will power itself for the bulk of the coming century. But we have at least another three decades to find alternatives to petroleum."

Three decades? Wow! I'm glad we have so much time to change everything about how our civilization functions!
2007-04-30 1:03 PM
in reply to: #781504

Pro
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Hailey, ID
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

I do agree we need to be moving forward, but this sky is falling isn't doing anything to change it.

 

So what is the answer to the problem then?  No one has found another fuel to use that is better. 

2007-04-30 1:08 PM
in reply to: #781697

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2007-04-30 1:16 PM
in reply to: #781504

Expert
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Kansas City, MO
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

I'll throw my $0.02 in here, just cause I'm bored.  I agree that the world's supply of oil/petroleum will one day be depleted.  What I don't know is how long until that happens.  I agree that without adequate preparation, a nation very dependant on oil would have a rough time when all the oil supplies dwindle, b/c demand will naturally go up, and so will prices.  For a nation like the US, we will have a dilemma to resolve b/c as I see it right now, we are so very dependant on oil right now, that if oil supplies dried up today, we would have at least some form of anarchy taking place in our country.

Ultimately, our nation WILL have to deal with the fact that crude oil will not be a viable fuel source.  I think our govt. needs to greatly increase research spending in alternative fuels, and SOON!  I'm not a dooms-day person, but I am a realist.  It's going to happen, it's just a matter of when.  I also have to wonder, though, how many of our fine govt. representatives have financial interest in oil commodities, and how does that affect govt. spending on alternative fuel research?  I have not researched it, so I may be way wrong, but I would guess that a fair number of our politicians have fiscal interest in oil, so they're probably going to work hard to protect their interests.  There is not much money to be gained from alternative fuels, yet.

Slightly different tangent, but still linked - I applaud NASA's efforts and all the work we as a civilzation have done to achieve space flight, but I wonder if the manpower, intelligence, and money could be better spent preparing our planet for the change from oil-dependence to alternative fuels?

anyway, those are just my thoughts.

2007-04-30 1:18 PM
in reply to: #781713

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
bradword - 2007-04-30 2:03 PM

I do agree we need to be moving forward, but this sky is falling isn't doing anything to change it.

 



As somebody in the documentary says, in 1962 JFK said that they will put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. If the same thing were said today, but that the best and brightest scientists were given the funding to find alternatives to fossil fuels, what would they find?

It's not sufficient to suggest that those who seek to put the exhaustion of oil supplies into perspective are doing the chicken little routine. The fact is we are going to run out of oil (it's just a question of when). Our economy and our way of life is entirely based on the availability of cheap and plentiful oil. Take oil away and you take away the very foundation of our society. Show me how that is not so, I would love to be wrong.

So what is the answer to the problem then? No one has found another fuel to use that is better.




The fact that we have not found a fuel that is better than oil is precisely the problem. The fact that we have no answer to the problem is exactly what the concern over peak oil is.
2007-04-30 1:22 PM
in reply to: #781754

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2007-04-30 1:26 PM
in reply to: #781766

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
spokes - 2007-04-30 2:22 PM

Opus - 2007-04-30 11:18 AM
bradword - 2007-04-30 2:03 PM

As somebody in the documentary says, in 1962 JFK said that they will put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. If the same thing were said today, but that the best and brightest scientists were given the funding to find alternatives to fossil fuels, what would they find?

he fact that we have no answer to the problem is exactly what the concern over peak oil is.

We'd have working thermonuclear fusion reactors, that's what. We can replace oil in transportation using cheap fusion produced electricity and fuel cells. 



Uh, wow, you just solved the greatest impending energy crisis ever faced by humankind!

BTW, the oil in other forms you mention requires energy to extract. For example, the oil in the Canadian tar sands depends on an abundance of cheap and plentiful natural gas.

Edited by Opus 2007-04-30 1:26 PM
2007-04-30 1:30 PM
in reply to: #781504

Master
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West Jordan, UT
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

Personally i don't think we will have oil as we know it in 50 years. I don't think any specialists think we will have oil in 100 years. BP, one of the biggest oil companies, predicts oil demand outstripping production capabilities in 15-20 years and oil reserves starting to deplete by 2040. Just think what the world's demand curve is going to look like when China has 2 SUVs in every driveway, like the USA. China's economy is exploding, so they will soon be energy pigs just like us North Americans. And there are 5 times as many households in China. We may have oil/gas, but demand is going to be so high, prices will go through the roof. $10-$20 a gallon is easily possible before long. I think the earth will be fine. How many thousands of years has human civilization existed without oil? I am most worried about the likely wars over oil. It is kind of sad because you can see countries using up the last of their energy reserves power planes and ships to fight for more energy!

Personally, I think they need to artificially raise gas prices, to give people an incentive to either conserve or develop alternatives.

 

 



2007-04-30 1:33 PM
in reply to: #781504

Expert
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Kansas City, MO
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

Why is it we "normal" citizens recognize this, but our govt leaders, fiscal leaders, etc. still press on as if nothing is wrong?

2007-04-30 1:35 PM
in reply to: #781504

Expert
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Livermore, Ca
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
Too bad we wont have all those cool bike's to ride around on when the oil runs out. Just about everything mass produced today needs oil at some point in it's production.
2007-04-30 1:37 PM
in reply to: #781797

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Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
jcdenton2000 - 2007-04-30 2:33 PM

Why is it we "normal" citizens recognize this, but our govt leaders, fiscal leaders, etc. still press on as if nothing is wrong?



Because, as I mentioned, our entire economy and way of life depends on the availability of oil. What will happen to Wal-Mart's business if they have to ship all of their products by sailboat from China and then horse-drawn carriage from the port?

Nobody in government wants to be the one to start the panic.
2007-04-30 1:38 PM
in reply to: #781504

Master
3019
20001000
West Jordan, UT
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists

Just so nobody thinks this is a consipiracy theory that nobody beleives, check out the data from the U.S.A. Dept. of Energy on Long term oil supply. Looking at their study, best case is that we have oil until 2112. Worst case was 2021. I am sure we will be somewhere in the middle, so that means that most of us will have to deal with this issue and probably all of our children and grandchildren. I'd rather look at the solution now instead of waiting until it caused an energy war of great magnitude.  Additionally, whoever solves this issue will be the new world economic superpower.  Might as well be someone we trust instead of Iran or NOrth Korea, etc.   

 

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/index.htm



Edited by tkbslc 2007-04-30 1:42 PM
2007-04-30 1:41 PM
in reply to: #781797

Pro
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St Charles, IL
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
jcdenton2000 - 2007-04-30 1:33 PM

Why is it we "normal" citizens recognize this, but our govt leaders, fiscal leaders, etc. still press on as if nothing is wrong?

Because we won't run out before the next election.  Oops, I seem to have forgotten the sarcastic font. 



2007-04-30 1:43 PM
in reply to: #781504

Expert
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Kansas City, MO
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
I agree with you, Opus - much of our society is oil-dependant.  I think it is time for our nation (perhaps all the world?) to invest in oil-free methods of energy: wind, water, solar, fission (thanks Spokes for the concept), etc.  Surely, with the number of freakin' geniuses we have on this rock we call home, we could come up with a way to be completely oil-INdependent.  Oh, I forgot, the politicians have oil-commodities in their investment portfolios, thereby biasing them to oil, and not the welfare of others.
2007-04-30 2:52 PM
in reply to: #781792

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Hailey, ID
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
tkbslc - 2007-04-30 12:30 PM

Personally, I think they need to artificially raise gas prices, to give people an incentive to either conserve or develop alternatives.

 

 

 

They've tried this in Europe and it hasn't made a bit of difference, exept driving the economy down and raising prices on all goods.  People are still driving as much with prices up to 2-3x(?) as high as US gas.

2007-04-30 2:53 PM
in reply to: #781504

Expert
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Kansas City, MO
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
Sure makes one wonder how high of a gas price we could really tolerate...?
2007-04-30 2:53 PM
in reply to: #781504

Pro
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Hailey, ID
Subject: RE: Good documentary - Great news for cyclists
I wonder who much energy would be made if every person in the world would ride stationary bike for an hour a day that was hooked to the energy grid
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