IMKY time predictions

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2008-08-20 10:21 AM

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Champion
10154
500050001002525
Alabama
Subject: IMKY time predictions

I've always said a triathlon is not a very good spectator sport as you just catch glimpses of your guy on the course.  I've tried to predict where/when I'll be on the course so my wife and kids don't have to 'waste' the whole day.  Here is my best guess of my times.

Swim
.
Swim start time:  7:10 +/- 5 minutes
.
Swim Time:  90 minutes +/- 10 minutes
.
Swim finish time:  8:40 am +/- 15 minutes
.
.
T1: 5 minutes
.
.
Bike
.
Bike Start:  8:45 am +/- 15 minutes
.
Bike Time: 6:45  +/- 45 minutes
.
Bike Finish Time:  3:30 pm  +/- 60 minutes
.
.
T2: 5 minutes
.
.
Run
.
Run start time:  3:35 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
Run Time:  6:15 +/- 60 minutes
.
IM Finish (Clock) Time:  10:30 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
.
.
Predicted IM Finish Time: 15:30 +/- 1 hr
.
~Mike
. 
How come no one has showed up to confiscate my keyboard yet?  :-)


Edited by Rogillio 2008-08-20 10:23 AM

2008-08-20 10:51 AM
in reply to: #1616024

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Champion
8540
50002000100050025
the colony texas
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
I"m going solo up there, so I predict that I'll start just after seven am and finish sometime before midnight.
2008-08-20 10:55 AM
in reply to: #1616155

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Champion
10154
500050001002525
Alabama
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions

Gaarryy - 2008-08-20 10:51 AM I"m going solo up there, so I predict that I'll start just after seven am and finish sometime before midnight.

 

Yeah, I did the same thing last year.  Don't tell my wife and kids but I think I almost prefer it that way.  It was nice to only worry about me last year....and not have to worry about getting up early and not waking everyone...or going to be early and asking everyone to keep quiet.  Well, I think they will enjoy the weekend....at least I hope they do.  :-)

~Mike

 

~Mike

2008-08-20 5:19 PM
in reply to: #1616024

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Extreme Veteran
495
100100100100252525
Horse Country
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions

Im probably on the pipe since this is my first IM but Im going to throw a 12hr finish out there for best case and 13 for not so best  

 
 
 











 
 
 
 
Early
 
Late
 
Mileage
 
Checkpoint
 
Location
 
Time
 
Pace
 
Elapsed
 
Split
 
Time
 
Pace
 
Elapsed
 
Split
 
0
 
Start
 
Tumbleweed
 
7:00 AM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
7:00 AM
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.4
 
T1
 
Great Lawn
 
8:05 AM
 
1:42 / 100m
 
1:05
 
1:05
 
8:15 AM
 
1:50 / 100m
 
1:10
 
1:10
 
2.4
 
T1 Exit
 
Great Lawn
 
8:10 AM
 
 
 
1:10
 
:05
 
8:25 AM
 
 
 
1:20
 
:10
 
40.4
 
La Grange 1
 
La Grange
 
10:15 AM
 
18 mph
 
3:15
 
2:05
 
10:40 AM
 
17 mph
 
3:40
 
2:15
 
70.4
 
La Grange 2
 
La Grange
 
11:55 AM
 
18 mph
 
4:55
 
1:40
 
12:25 PM
 
17 mph
 
5:25
 
1:45
 
114.4
 
T2
 
Great Lawn
 
2:25 PM
 
18 mph
 
7:25
 
2:30
 
2:55 PM
 
17 mph
 
7:55
 
2:30
 
114.4
 
T2 Exit
 
Great Lawn
 
2:30 PM
 
 
 
7:30
 
:05
 
3:10 PM
 
 
 
8:10
 
:15
 
127.5
 
4th Street
 
4th Street
 
4:40 PM
 
10:00 / mile
 
9:40
 
2:10
 
5:35PM
 
11:00 / mile
 
10:35
 
2:25
 
140.6
 
Finish
 
4th Street
 
7:00 PM
 
10:20 / mile
 
12:00
 
2:30
 
8:00 PM
 
11:00 / mile
 
13:00
 
2:35



Edited by grit_nugget 2008-08-20 5:22 PM
2008-08-20 5:28 PM
in reply to: #1616024

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Pro
3730
2000100050010010025
NorCal
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
Rogillio - 2008-08-20 8:21 AM

I've always said a triathlon is not a very good spectator sport as you just catch glimpses of your guy on the course.  I've tried to predict where/when I'll be on the course so my wife and kids don't have to 'waste' the whole day.  Here is my best guess of my times.

Swim
.
Swim start time:  7:10 +/- 5 minutes
.
Swim Time:  90 minutes +/- 10 minutes
.
Swim finish time:  8:40 am +/- 15 minutes
.
.
T1: 5 minutes
.
.
Bike
.
Bike Start:  8:45 am +/- 15 minutes
.
Bike Time: 6:45  +/- 45 minutes
.
Bike Finish Time:  3:30 pm  +/- 60 minutes
.
.
T2: 5 minutes
.
.
Run
.
Run start time:  3:35 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
Run Time:  6:15 +/- 60 minutes
.
IM Finish (Clock) Time:  10:30 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
.
.
Predicted IM Finish Time: 15:30 +/- 1 hr
.
~Mike
. 
How come no one has showed up to confiscate my keyboard yet?  :-)

Mike since you put so much time into your list, can I just draft off of you the whole day?  I promise to stay far enough behind you to make sure I don't get a dafting card or get peed/spit/snot on!

2008-08-20 7:05 PM
in reply to: #1617384

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Champion
10154
500050001002525
Alabama
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
AbbieR - 2008-08-20 5:28 PM
Rogillio - 2008-08-20 8:21 AM

I've always said a triathlon is not a very good spectator sport as you just catch glimpses of your guy on the course.  I've tried to predict where/when I'll be on the course so my wife and kids don't have to 'waste' the whole day.  Here is my best guess of my times.

Swim
.
Swim start time:  7:10 +/- 5 minutes
.
Swim Time:  90 minutes +/- 10 minutes
.
Swim finish time:  8:40 am +/- 15 minutes
.
.
T1: 5 minutes
.
.
Bike
.
Bike Start:  8:45 am +/- 15 minutes
.
Bike Time: 6:45  +/- 45 minutes
.
Bike Finish Time:  3:30 pm  +/- 60 minutes
.
.
T2: 5 minutes
.
.
Run
.
Run start time:  3:35 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
Run Time:  6:15 +/- 60 minutes
.
IM Finish (Clock) Time:  10:30 pm +/- 60 minutes
.
.
.
Predicted IM Finish Time: 15:30 +/- 1 hr
.
~Mike
. 
How come no one has showed up to confiscate my keyboard yet?  :-)

Mike since you put so much time into your list, can I just draft off of you the whole day?  I promise to stay far enough behind you to make sure I don't get a dafting card or get peed/spit/snot on!

 

Since our logs are very simlar in volume and pace, we will probably see each other more than once on the course.  Last year I leap-frogged with a Canadian woman on the bike about 15 times!  I'd pass her on the downhills and before long she'd pass me back on the uphill.

~Mike

2008-08-20 7:07 PM
in reply to: #1617363

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Champion
10154
500050001002525
Alabama
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
grit_nugget - 2008-08-20 5:19 PM

Im probably on the pipe since this is my first IM but Im going to throw a 12hr finish out there for best case and 13 for not so best  

 
 











 
 
Early
Late
Mileage
Checkpoint
Location
Time
Pace
Elapsed
Split
Time
Pace
Elapsed
Split
0
Start
Tumbleweed
7:00 AM
 
 
 
7:00 AM
 
 
 
2.4
T1
Great Lawn
8:05 AM
1:42 / 100m
1:05
1:05
8:15 AM
1:50 / 100m
1:10
1:10
2.4
T1 Exit
Great Lawn
8:10 AM
 
1:10
:05
8:25 AM
 
1:20
:10
40.4
La Grange 1
La Grange
10:15 AM
18 mph
3:15
2:05
10:40 AM
17 mph
3:40
2:15
70.4
La Grange 2
La Grange
11:55 AM
18 mph
4:55
1:40
12:25 PM
17 mph
5:25
1:45
114.4
T2
Great Lawn
2:25 PM
18 mph
7:25
2:30
2:55 PM
17 mph
7:55
2:30
114.4
T2 Exit
Great Lawn
2:30 PM
 
7:30
:05
3:10 PM
 
8:10
:15
127.5
4th Street
4th Street
4:40 PM
10:00 / mile
9:40
2:10
5:35PM
11:00 / mile
10:35
2:25
140.6
Finish
4th Street
7:00 PM
10:20 / mile
12:00
2:30
8:00 PM
11:00 / mile
13:00
2:35

 

Nice spreadsheet!

2008-08-20 8:45 PM
in reply to: #1617532

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Bob
2194
2000100252525
Binghamton, NY
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions

Holy cow that's detailed! Nice job! Let's see what I can put together for a best case:

7:00 am - Enter the water (Or when I cross the mat)
7:54 am - Exit the water
7:56 am - Enter T1
7:59 am - Exit T1 and go for a ride
1:24 pm - Hand my bike to the Valet Parking dude
1:25 pm - Enter T2, change and stretch a bit
1:29 pm - Exit T2 and head out for a little jog around Louisville
4:59 pm - Cross the finish line and get something to eat!

9:59:00

2008-08-20 8:57 PM
in reply to: #1616024

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Extreme Veteran
477
100100100100252525
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
I'm not doing IMKY this year...but I will be cheering you all on and hope you all reach your goals.

Last year I really thought 13:30 was doable for me, but ended with 14:45. Honestly, I'm not complaining. I'm thrilled to have done it...thrilled with my time and hope to do another in a year or two. I was pretty much on pace until about 10 miles into the run. Heat, humidity and a bloated belly got me! I'm not trying to psych anyone out...just trying to share my experience. Respect the heat and humidity (if that's what Mother Nature sends your way) and really plan out your nutrition and hydration.

Good luck to all!

2008-08-20 10:22 PM
in reply to: #1616024

Champion
9430
50002000200010010010010025
No excuses!
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions

I bet your jealous of the spreadsheet aren't you Mike? Wink

Someone one up'ed ya!

2008-08-21 9:00 AM
in reply to: #1616024

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Champion
10471
500050001001001001002525
Dallas, TX
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
My coach might have me write something out... but if he doesn't ask for it... I'm not going to do it.

I have found that if I just get out there and race, I do fine. Having time expectations in my head always does me in somewhat.

The only time I care about are the cut off times for the bike and at the end. If I come in under 17 hours... without blisters... and feeling good... I will have achieved my goal.


2008-08-21 2:17 PM
in reply to: #1618294

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Bob
2194
2000100252525
Binghamton, NY
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions

KSH - 2008-08-21 10:00 AM My coach might have me write something out... but if he doesn't ask for it... I'm not going to do it. I have found that if I just get out there and race, I do fine. Having time expectations in my head always does me in somewhat. The only time I care about are the cut off times for the bike and at the end. If I come in under 17 hours... without blisters... and feeling good... I will have achieved my goal.

I agree with you. I like to put numbers together to see a best case scenario but I can be sure that I will be having a good time out there. That's what this is all about! It does no good to get hung up on times and "making up" for lost time if something (like a poop stop) comes up.

10 DAYS!!!! 

2008-08-21 2:41 PM
in reply to: #1619448

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Expert
913
500100100100100
St. Louis
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
rstocks3 - 2008-08-21 2:17 PM

KSH - 2008-08-21 10:00 AM My coach might have me write something out... but if he doesn't ask for it... I'm not going to do it. I have found that if I just get out there and race, I do fine. Having time expectations in my head always does me in somewhat. The only time I care about are the cut off times for the bike and at the end. If I come in under 17 hours... without blisters... and feeling good... I will have achieved my goal.

I agree with you. I like to put numbers together to see a best case scenario but I can be sure that I will be having a good time out there. That's what this is all about! It does no good to get hung up on times and "making up" for lost time if something (like a poop stop) comes up out.

fixed it for you? 

~B

2008-08-21 6:52 PM
in reply to: #1616024

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Extreme Veteran
563
5002525
Pekin, IL
Subject: RE: IMKY time predictions
My best guess (still finishing is the 1st priority):Swim: 1.5 hrs +/- 15 minT1: <10 minBike: 6.25 hrs +/- 30 minT2: < 10 minRun: 5.25 hrs +/- 30 minA lot is dependant on the heat/humidity. We'll see.
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