In regards to the yellow brick road to Kona

I would bump those run goals if it were me. 1:26 for an open half mary doesn't give you much room for error on IM day.
A 1:20 per hundred swim, 22 mph bike, and a 6:35 pace on the run (1:26) gets you a 4:30 half. Now 1:26 is pretty brisk in a HIM, but to run a 1:28-1:30 in a HIM you're gonna need more open speed.

my 2 cents

I agree with TJ's post but would add that your run times are also a little out of line.  An 18 5k would indicate about 37.5 10k and 1:23 half.

shane, not totally disagreeing but wouldn't some of that depend on volume? When i ran my half this past fall i was in mid 17 pace and ran just under 1:25. So a bit faster on the 5k and not really much faster half time than the OP.

I think its probably good to wait, but I don't think you can rely on meeting number goals.

Falling into that trap can cause you to overtrain and get injured.  I find the only real way to go after something in this sport is to train consistently, and not get hurt.

Absolutely, however I always assume that if someone is going to aim for a given time, they are going to be well trained for the distance.  I would expect that if you took your fitness and targetted a half marathon as a key race, that you would run close to 1:20.

Shane

My times listed for running are off from what one "should" be able to do based on the 18min 5k.
However, I am listing the times as Kona Q benchmarks prior to training for a full IM. I am looked for suggested Kona Q benchmark times at the 5k, 10k, and 1/2 mary distances, as well as triathlon times for 1/2IM, OLY, Sprint, Cyling 40K TT time, prior to jumping into an ironman training program.

Perhaps I will only get close to one of the benchmarks, say a 2:12 OLY, and a 40K TT in 1:02. At least at that point I will know if I am trained for the distance, and the stars align, I will have a shot at a Kona Q time (really depends who shows up in my AG, but I am guessing a 9:30 time will put you in very good chances if it isn't IMFL).

Bottom line, I am not going to move up the distance to IM until I think I am capable of slamming down a sub 10hr time. I just need some identifiers which can help indicate when I am getting close.

Why? 

I understand that you were looking for some benchmarks; I was just pointing out that the longer the race, the softer your target.



I think that overall your goals are pretty solid and should give you a good indication that you are fit enough to make a run at Kona.  However, a 2:12 Oly will not predict anything close to a 9:30 IM unless you are an ultradistance freak (i.e. someone who just never slows down).  Probably closer to a 10:30 than a 9:30 if all goes well on race day.



IMO this is definitely the way to go; get fast over the shorter distances, including good single sport targets like you have (I would add swimming as well) and then when you have more experience and great short and long course fitness, step up to the IM.

Shane

I am competitive, and I like a challenge that seems unreachable (at the moment). I have done century rides, I have ran marathons, 1/2IM's, ultradistance runs, adventure races, etc.
I know I can finish an Ironman in the allotted 17hr time (maybe its strange that I am saying that without having trained fully for one).
I want to compete at the highest level possible as an AGer, and under 10 hours will put me there.
At least I think it will! 

I think your time estimates in regards to what it might take are reasonable for a sub 10 but a 9:30 I think you are going to need more pace on the bike and run. It's an interesting academic excercise to look as various race distances and come up with goals which have some basis in reality. However, bottom line to go 9:30 you need to swim 2.4 miles in about an hour, bike 112 miles in a sub 5:10 or so and run a sub 3:30 marathon. To do that run, for example, your open marathon time better be right at 3 hours.

KQ'ing on your first IM is never a given, you could be a sub-2 Olympic, sub-4:10 half guy and still blow up in the IM due to poor pacing, nutrition, or a million other different issues.

That said... if you can get yourself to your 2:10/4:30 Oly/half goals you should be in a decent position to go right around 10-flat in an IM.  9:5x is not anywhere near an automatic qualifier in M20-24 though.  You'd likely need some help from the rolldown, but it's certainly possible.  Something in the 2:05/4:20 Oly/half range would put you in a position to not have to depend on rolldown slots (provided you execute properly on race day, etc).

I like the general approach of developing your short course speed before worrying about going long.  When I first started I had the same general plan as you -- meet certain self-imposed Oly/half benchmarks then take a run at a Kona slot.  Coming up on my 4th season now, I've blown away all of my original short course goals but still haven't even registered for my first IM.  It turns out getting fast and competitive at shorter races is not merely a means to a fast IM, but a rewarding process unto itself.  This sport has a lot more to offer than just IM and Kona.

true, and after re-reading your post i think i took the meaning a bit wrong

Thanks everyone for your input (bryancd, Tortoise, newbz, gsmacleod, tjfry). It gets scarier when I drop the short distance goals even lower, however I can still see them as reachable sometime in the future. Consistent training is the key, and I am in a great position to be doing that over the next ~4 years (grad school).

I will probably start with the one that will be "easiest" for me (still extremely hard though) - sub 18min 5k, and a sub 37.5min 10k. Throw on top of that a sub 1:05 sprint distance tri, and a 2:15 OLY and I will be one happy person by the end of the summer! Might do a 40K TT and go for sub 1:05 as well. That is a lot of "A" performances for one summer, but I don't think a 5k or 10k or Sprint tri will require much more than a day of recovery.

As a summary, the Kona Q benchmarks updated:

5k - 18min
10k - 37.5min
1/2 Mary - 1:23
Mary - 3:00

Sprint Tri - 1:00
OLY Tri - 2:05-2:10
HIM - 4:20-4:30

40K TT - 1:00

2k OWS comfortably - 1:25 min/100meters???

I would just go with what Shane suggested. Race short and fast this season. Put in a lot of quality work and don't sweat the volume. You're young and you should look to develop speed now and allow your aerobic engine time ti build. There's a reason why there are so many 35-45 year old throwing down sub 10 hour IM's, well there are a few but one is huge aerobic base fitness built up over YEARS. Qualifying for Kona is less about trying to plug in various PR's at different events and distances, it's about have the aerobic capacity to do an all day aerobic event at paces which will put you in the top of the AG. In the abstract, it really is as simple as I said. Swim an hour, bike 5, run 3:30= Kona on a lot of IM courses.

check out the part where he talks about the years to get the engine there.

I can easily hit all of your single sport goals right now, but could not come close to the IM times. I simply don't have the miles in my body to do that at the moment.

I going to break (sort of) from what bryan said and tell you that I am a living example of taking advantage of your college years in terms of volume. That's not to say you need to skimp on the speed, but there will be no time in your life in which HUGE volume is so easy to achieve. Fast recovery, ample time, few obligations, gobs of hormones, etc. If you are serious about Kona in 5 or 10 years, then your road is much easier if you go nuts right now. There's a reason I can swim about 2500 to 3000 per week and still climb out of the water in 48 minutes. It's called college, and we swum as much as 100,000+ per week back then . I'm still riding that volume all these years later.

Agree with bryancd's comment. I am surprised how progess on the bike takes years. As to your original question for benchmarks - sub4:30 HIM and, perhaps more importantly, sub 5 IM Bike. A word of caution, if you only focuse on speed and then take up the mileage, you run a good chance of injury. I would recommend on building up a huge base. Race a few IMs and then you can focus on your limiters.

Good luck

I don't know if my thread was more memorable/viewed because of the title or because it was such a ridiculous question or expectation

Regardless--good luck and you seem in a good place.  I care a lot less about Kona and more about just being a solid and happy IMer i've decided.  If it happens, awesome, if not, I want to enjoy tri and become an ironman soon.  I think my timeline is reasonable for that.  Best of luck to you and everyone else! 

I'm of the same camp.  I'm relatively slow but I'm not going to go longer until i get faster and I am capable of putting down a time that I feel is a pretty good time for myself.  Don't know if that will happen but I'm going to see.