Let's Play Guess My HM Time!

I'm far from a run expert but I'm going to say that you have a shot at 1:45 but it will be tough.  I'm only basing it on the fact that I ran similar mileage for my HM last fall and we run at similar speeds (or at least I was then).  The difference is that you have more runs around your target race pace while I had almost none.  In the end I managed 1:49.

I'm going to go with 1:44:59.    Good luck!

My guess is that you'll start out with 1:42 in mind...then fade to a 1:44 finish.  Likely due to lack of miles and the uphill finish.  You've got really good speed as your 5k indicates...but I would like to see 40-45 mpw in training to back that speed up with HM endurance.  Who knows though...you might go 1:38 for all I know. 

I think that you should have a good shot at 1:45, and if the conditions are right you could go a bit under.  I'd target your first 10 on the high side of your target... maybe look to average a 7:50, you don't want to run out of gas too early.

If you keep to 7:50 you should be at ~ 1:18:30 and then even if you slow down to your target 8:00 m/m pace for the last 5K you add ~ 0:25:00 coming in at 1:43:30.  If you're still feeling good at 10 you can try to hold on or even ramp up a bit to try to knock a sub 1:40.

My guess... 1:42:10.  Good luck and have fun!

I agree with this advice. You're in the neighborhood, but 1:45 is no gimme. So better to not try to go out too fast, even if you feel great. You can lose a lot of time quite quickly if you blow up.

First of all, you absolutely have this in you, but know you'll be riding the "pain train" and you'll need to keep your cadence up, your form together, and your attitude up.  When you think "I'm tired", it needs to be followed with "f____ yea I'm tired, cause I'm slaying this thing in 1:45 or less". 

The fact that you haven't done much the last two weeks is not a bad thing, stay loose this week but don't do anything even remotely tough.  Nail your hydration, nutrition, and sleep this week, get in plenty of endurolytes (or whatever you use).  I personally gorge myself (seriously, I eat an obscene amount, and I'm only 175 lbs.) on a linguine/pasta dish before 1/2 marathon or longer stuff and I believe packing in that much protein/carbs helps me.   

I would go 8:20 for the first mile, you'll drop :10 on the second as you warm up, another :10 on the third, then work down a little more to settle in at 7:50 by mile 5-6.  You may be uncomfortable with this, because technically you'll be around :30-:40 "in the hole" after 3 miles, but don't worry about that.  That deficit will be long gone soon enough.  When you get to mile 9 or 10 you ought to have a little cushion to where you'll think "damn, I could run these last three at 8:15 or even 8:20 and still get my time", but you won't because you'll be so pumped because you'll know you've got it in the bag.  There won't be any room for negative thoughts because you'll be thinking about how the thing just turned into a 5K and that you've got some great 5k times and it's time to uncork another one. 

Believe you can do it, because you really can.  I know this because our numbers are about the same and this is exactly how I hit your same goal this past Sunday.   

Thanks all.  Sounds like the consensus is to start out conservatively and try to negative split.  Not sure whether that's universal advice or specific to my (relative) lack of endurance, but thanks either way. 

One thought I have re: pace management is that I'll be tracking my progress with my Garmin.  I think it likely that when I finish my Garmin will indicate that it thinks I've run as much as 13.3 miles due to tangents, signal wandering, etc.  If it does, I'll need to have it think I've averaged 7:54/mile to beat 1:45. 

PART ONE: RESULTS

Here were your guesses:

axteraa    1:44:59

tri808    1:44:00

kloofyroland    1:46:59

Jzig    1:42:00

sous    1:42:10

jaelinfunk    1:49:20

Actual time:  1:42:30, less a few seconds but chip times not posted yet.  I was and remain delighted with a 16 minute PR vs. the same course from a year ago.

Sous, you are the winner.  Thanks to everyone for the good wishes and advice.

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PART TWO: BREAKDOWN

My watch showed 13.22 miles @7:45.  Here’s the breakdown of paces as shown by my watch. I kept forgetting to hit lap button at mile markers so not much granularity there.

M1: flat, slightly downhill 7:43 @161

M2-5: constant, long rolling hills 7:52 @169

M6-7: long down, long ascend 7:43 @170

M8: mild rolls, downhill 7:31 @171

M9: medium rolls, noticeable climbs 7:52 @172

M10: up & down 7:46 @172

M11: up, down, flat, starting to feel it 8:04 @172

M12: nearly constant mild climb 7:48 @171

M13: steeper climb until finish 7:15 @177

My LT has tended to hover around 172.  I was very pleased at the steady HR given I was running by feel.  

Anything I should glean from this?  While I was happy to pass a dozen folks on that last mile climb, should I infer that I could have pushed it a bit more for most of the race?  Not stressing about it, just figured it wouldn't hurt to see what folks think.

Wait...what???  You were supposed to fade to a 1:44 like I predicted...NOOB!!

JK...great job.

Damn I'm good... oh wait I should've led with Awesome Race!!! Congrats.

Actually it sounds like you ran a pretty good race, I don't know if you pushed much more in the first half if you would've finished as strong.  That is always the balancing act, and in fact it is much better to negative split.  I find that the races I push too hard up front might gain me 5 seconds per mile in the beginning, but blowing up costs me 5 seconds (or usually more) in the last half therefore costing me overall time.

I'd build on this awesome new PR, and set another one in your next event.