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Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced
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 2006-11-22 11:53 AM |
Expert  1169    Sherman Oaks, CA |  Subject: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never RacedI have a half-mary coming up and the farthest I have raced is a 10k. Obviously, I want to finish in the best time. I don't want to go out too fast and bonk or start out slow and have too much fuel in the tank at the end. Should I use: http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/rununiv/mcmillanrunningcalculator.ht... You put in your 10k and it gives you a half-marathon time and pace. Thanks |
| 2006-11-22 12:00 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Expert 1169 Sherman Oaks, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Also, can you tell me how accurate this calculator prediction was to your actual half-marathon time when you put in a 5k or 10k time? |
| 2006-11-22 12:07 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Pro 4206 Los Angeles, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced What's the farthest you ever ran? I mean, I assume it's not 10k, right? |
| 2006-11-22 12:07 PM in reply to: #606423 |
Cycling Guru 15134 Fulton, MD | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced It is not a predictor ... it is a calculator ...... it clearly says that "assuming you train properly for the distance you can run this ....." If you look at the bottom of the calculator, it will give you training zones for all distances and workouts. THAT is the part that really helps. If you've trained in those correct ranges, then you should be able to hit the calculated time for the other distances. For example, my 10k time of 39:35 predicted a marathon time of 3:05:46. So I used the workouts on the bottom for my training plan and feel that I can potentially hit the predicted number (or faster).  Edited by Daremo 2006-11-22 12:09 PM |
| 2006-11-22 12:18 PM in reply to: #606430 |
Expert 1169 Sherman Oaks, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced auto208562 - 2006-11-22 10:07 AM What's the farthest you ever ran? I mean, I assume it's not 10k, right? Farthest I have ran is a little over 12 miles (2 hours). I just have never raced over a 10k. I put in my 10k time from the past weekend and it spit out 1:46:33 for my half-marathon. That seems rather quick to me. But I have no idea. I was thinking of going more for a 1:55 goal. I know that I will learn a lot during the race and it isn't a make or break. Just like to do my best. |
| 2006-11-22 12:23 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Champion 5345 Carlsbad, California | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced I personally have found that the running calculators (Based on Daniel's Running Formula anyway) are a pretty accurate measure of a runners ideal "Potential". What it is measuring is your ability to process oxygen and not your overall endurance. Speed without endurance results in a race with a big Positive split at the end. If you can hit all of the key workouts at the correct paces (Especially your Long Run(s)) in a well constructed HM Training plan, you should be able to get reasonably close to your predicted time. That being said, very few folks have all of their race times for different distances line up properly. Running Economy, Endurance and outside factors all conspire on the longer distances to prevent this perfect alignment of the planets. I personally have found that the accuracy of the calculator goes way up if the "Input" race time is very recent, and is of a longer distance. I usually run a Half Marathon as a Tuneup race in my Marathon training plan to "Confirm" my planned marathon pace just before tapering. |
| 2006-11-22 12:25 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Pro 4206 Los Angeles, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Do you have a heart rate monitor? I'm not 100% sure about it but I heard people use that to gauge their race pace, like for example, something like you'd race at 85% or 90% of your max HR for a 1/2 and maybe 70% for a full. So I'd think if you used a HR monitor, you will max our your potential and race pace. |
| 2006-11-22 12:27 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Champion 8766 Evergreen, Colorado | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced I agree with the above poster to work off HR...don't lock yourself to a pace. If you lock yourself to pace and it's too fast for the day you'll bonk HARD. If you know your zones, use them. I've heard people say to run 5 miles in Z2, 5 in Z3, then give whatever you have left for the last 5k....I could have that slightly wrong, but I think I got it right... |
| 2006-11-22 12:29 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Master 1845 Athens, Ga. | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced If your 12-miler took you 2 hours to do, I'd say the half mary will probably take you about that long, maybe a little longer. Also, consider your training run. If it matches the terrain, elevation, etc. of your half, then you'll probably race like you trained. If, however, you ran the 12 miles on flat ground and your half is a maze of hills, then, well, you're gonna hurt. I did better on the half mary than in training earlier this year b/c I train on hills (out of necessity, not desire) and the race was pretty flat. |
| 2006-11-22 12:36 PM in reply to: #606465 |
Expert 1169 Sherman Oaks, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced watergirl - 2006-11-22 10:29 AM If your 12-miler took you 2 hours to do, I'd say the half mary will probably take you about that long, maybe a little longer. Also, consider your training run. If it matches the terrain, elevation, etc. of your half, then you'll probably race like you trained. If, however, you ran the 12 miles on flat ground and your half is a maze of hills, then, well, you're gonna hurt. I did better on the half mary than in training earlier this year b/c I train on hills (out of necessity, not desire) and the race was pretty flat. I believe the course is flat (or at least advertised that way). My goals (in order): 1) Finish Happy 2) Finish in Under 2 hours 3) Finish in Under 1:50 I do my LSD at a 10 minute pace. My 10k races are under 8 minute. So, I was thinking of splitting the difference and running at a 9 minute pace which is really comfortable for me. I do use a HRM. Thanks Also, still waiting to hear back about the accuracy for people. Edited by GolfMark 2006-11-22 12:56 PM |
| 2006-11-22 12:40 PM in reply to: #606418 |
| Crystal Lake, IL | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced I think HRM is the way to go but if you haven't trained with one and don't know what HR to run at its too late now, methinks. Short of that, I did a half mary in Sep where my training got a little screwed up so going into it I dropped my expectations. I found a groove, and some people I liked running with and just ran. In the end I overdid it a little and really struggled the last 1.5 miles but I was stunned that I ran the first 11-11.5 miles as well as I did. I found myself letting the race dictate my pace and that worked for me. I finished with a better time than I would have been shooting for had my training not gotten screwed up. Not sure if any of this helps you, just letting you know there are lots of ways to go about a successful race.
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| 2006-11-22 12:42 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced A) If your longest training run is 12 miles, and it took about 2 hours, then I would say about 2 hours is probably doable. B) If you've never raced the distance, I would be much more focused on finishing than having a time goal. If that's what you're going to do, don't worry about your watch, other than to have your time at the end. C) If you don't currently use a HRM, don't try to use one for the race. It'll throw you all out of whack. If you DO currently use a HRM, then I would wear at it during the race. Your question is one that's best answered by you. You know what your training has been, you know what that 12 miler in 2 hours felt like, and how you felt at the end. You don't need some online calculator to tell what your pace should be for a race. You should show up, feeling confident that you're prepared to finish to the best of your ability, and then go and run that 13.1 miles. |
| 2006-11-22 12:46 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Cycling Guru 15134 Fulton, MD | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced For the accuracy I'll go back to the "if you have trained for that speed at that distance" comment. It's hard to have all your top PR's in a short time frame to compare. As far as mine go, going down the scale I've done what was calculated or better based on the 10k time I had in May of this year. But that was also before the marathon training began. I have not run a half mary. race to see if I could get the time it estimates with my 10k (let alone my recent 5k time). However, from the people I know that have trained by the zones given they have been pretty much right in the range given for their longer races. It is the less than 2 mile ones that are typically off based on the longer races. |
| 2006-11-22 12:47 PM in reply to: #606483 |
Expert 1169 Sherman Oaks, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Scout7 - 2006-11-22 10:42 AM A) If your longest training run is 12 miles, and it took about 2 hours, then I would say about 2 hours is probably doable. B) If you've never raced the distance, I would be much more focused on finishing than having a time goal. If that's what you're going to do, don't worry about your watch, other than to have your time at the end. C) If you don't currently use a HRM, don't try to use one for the race. It'll throw you all out of whack. If you DO currently use a HRM, then I would wear at it during the race. Your question is one that's best answered by you. You know what your training has been, you know what that 12 miler in 2 hours felt like, and how you felt at the end. You don't need some online calculator to tell what your pace should be for a race. You should show up, feeling confident that you're prepared to finish to the best of your ability, and then go and run that 13.1 miles. I have a HRM. Do I use it perfectly? Probably not. I felt good after the 12 miler. I am fairly well prepared. Just hard to know exactly how my body will react. After I run a 10k, my first thought is that doing twice that distance is tough. But I am sure that is fairly common. I was using the calculator just to give me a pace. It shot back a pace that I personally think is pretty aggressive for my first half-mary. Didn't give me much slack between the 10k pace and the 1/2 pace that I feel I need. Will be a fun learning experience. Thanks for the words. Cheers |
| 2006-11-22 12:54 PM in reply to: #606474 |
| Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced So, I was thinking of splitting the difference and running at a 9 minute pace which is really comfortble for me. [sigh], I hate people like you |
| 2006-11-22 12:56 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced As for accuracy....If I put in my half mary time, it paces me faster than what I did for my mary. If I put in my mary time, my half time is a few minutes slower. If I do my last 10 miler (which isn't a really fair comparison, because it was a trail run), it's pretty slow. If I do my last timed 2 mile, it is within 2 minutes for my half mary time, but 8 minutes too fast for my actual mary time. I wasn't trying to be an a-hole, and I may have come across that way, but I think that you're going to be fine, and that you already have an idea as to what pace you want to run. I personally have never used a calculator to tell me what my paces should be, so I can't specifically say to using them before your race. I will say that I went into my first marathon knowing what pace I wanted to run, and trained to run that pace. But, that's how I do it, since I'm too cheap to go with the HRM. Since you have one, and I assume you're used to training with, it might be a good idea to use. I don't know how compatible pace and HR are going to be. |
| 2006-11-22 1:10 PM in reply to: #606418 |
| Alaska | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced This may sound pretty simplistic but I think you can add about :30 sec to your expected pace as you move up in distance from 5k, 10k, 1/2, & maybe an extra :15 sec for full. Your pace seems to be fairly close to mine and when I used the mcmillanrunning calculator, the :30 sec was pretty close as were my actual races. My example: June, 2 mile-14:03 (7:01) predicted 10k 47:23, July 26, 10k-46:25(7:27) predicted half 1:43:17, August 20, half-1:45:35(8:04) predicted full 3:42:41, October 1, full-3:58:47 (9:07)(gastro issues) but was on pace for 3:50 (8:47)thru mile 23 and felt if issues hadnt arisen could have done it. I believe the previous poster has it right that if you train using the paces provided on the mcmillanrunning calculator you likely will be closer to the predicted times. I think for my full I was doing my LSD's too slow. |
| 2006-11-22 1:39 PM in reply to: #606553 |
Expert 1169 Sherman Oaks, CA | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Good points. I think my LSD may have been a bit too slow as well. Oh well. I have another half-marathon in 2 months. Will work out the kinks by then. I do get pretty amped on race day. I am going to go out at a 9 minute pace and if I am feeling okay for the first 10 miles, I will charge it up the last 3.1 and run those at an 8 minute pace. That will be a 1:55 time. Just fun to have a goal in mind. Cheers |
| 2006-11-22 3:34 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Master 2629 brummie land | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced can i ask a stupid newbie (to running) question? how can you have lsds at 10 min mile and hope to maintain a 9 min mile pace for a half mary? i hope you do but how does it work?
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| 2006-11-22 3:41 PM in reply to: #606737 |
Runner | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Couple different reasons. Primary amongst them is the idea that most of your LSD runs are done at slower than your planned pace anyway. Some of it is also because you shouldn't be running your LSD at your threshold, so you should be able to run at a faster speed. A lot of this, of course, is assuming that you have trained up properly, and is also why it is so hard to predict accurately beforehand what someone's time will be. |
| 2006-11-22 3:43 PM in reply to: #606737 |
Champion 5345 Carlsbad, California | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced sappho96 - 2006-11-22 1:34 PM can i ask a stupid newbie (to running) question? how can you have lsds at 10 min mile and hope to maintain a 9 min mile pace for a half mary? i hope you do but how does it work?
Seems counter-inuitive, but here goes: LSD runs are only one aspect of a good training plan. The goal is to improve the runner's endurance as well as Aerobic capacity. (IE, Converting Fuel into Energy using the Aerobic System) Other aspects of the training plan do other things to help the runner reach max potential for the marathon. (Lactate Threshold Intervals, V02Max Intervals, Medium Long Runs etc.) Sort of does not make sense that to run faster, you have to slow down. FWIW: Marathon Pace is not much good for anything in terms of training. It is too slow to be a good LT pace, it is too fast to be a good GA Pace. All a mile run at MP does is train the mind and the muscles what MP Feels like. Oh, definitely not a stupid question. Many runners never really figure this one out. It took me a while to get it. I could throw down a 20 Miler at just under MP when I was doing 30-40 MPW without too many problems. Now that I regularly do 80 MPW, that is just not possible. The recovery time from a 20 miler at that pace is just way too long and the benefits are none. Edited by WaterDog66 2006-11-22 3:46 PM |
| 2006-11-22 3:59 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Master 2629 brummie land | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced |
| 2006-11-22 4:56 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Expert 660 Central New York | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced HRM and minutes per mile are two of the traditional ways to ****** your pace. I personally think you have to go by "feel." For example, if you can comfortably turn around and taunt Chris, you're probably doing okay. [insert smile emoticon here] Seriously, it's been almost ten years since I last tried a stand alone half marathon. Thanks for putting your question out there, as I have similar questions running through my head also. |
| 2006-11-22 5:04 PM in reply to: #606418 |
Expert 755 SF-Bay Area | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Well, just for giggles, I used the McMillan calculator/predictor linked in the first post. My fastest 10K is about 52:00, and it calculated/predicted a 1:55 half-marathon. Guess what? I recently ran the US Half Marathon in SF in exactly 1:55! |
| 2006-11-22 5:26 PM in reply to: #606491 |
Member 48 | Subject: RE: Choosing a Race-Pace for a Distance You Never Raced Daremo - 2006-11-22 12:46 PM It is the less than 2 mile ones that are typically off based on the longer races. I would agree with this. I haven't raced much recently, but for kicks I plugged in my old high school mile time (and I mean OLD) and the calculator predicted a considerably faster marathon time than the one I ran (when I was 24) for which I thought I trained adequately - though probably not on par with how I was training for track in high school. Therefore, I echo Daremo's comments about the caveat that the calculator assumes you train "properly" at each distance. |
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