Predict my half marathon time

That's a pretty broad range, how will I be able to award you a win with that?    Are you predicting a blowup based on going out too hard?

Hmm, based on your personal best times which are close to mine I'd say somewhere in the upper 1:30's.

Looking at your logs is a little tricky because your times don't reflect a 7:30/mile pace which is what it takes to do that.  I just finished my HM yesterday and did it in 1:37.  I was running around a 8:00 - 8:15 pace for most of my training runs and did a few 10k length runs at a 7:30 pace just to get a good feel for the pace and confidence that I could run that fast for 13.1.

So, based on your logs I'd hedge my bets for a mid 1:40's, but I think your probably capable of a high 1:30.  

Good luck and most importantly have fun.

If I had to guess at Scout's thinking I'm guessing he's thinking endurance issues as from what I've seen your longest run to date is a little over 11 miles.  Unless I missed something.  While I'm much slower than you I've never done a half race on less than a 13.2 mile long run previous.  My goal half this year had my peak distance last week at 14.86 miles. 

1:36:45

Trust in McMillan. You have the volume, just go at the pace advised (7:22), and don't go faster no matter how great you feel until the last 5k then say in your head "it's a 5k race now" and go.

You don't need to run that fast in training to do it in a race.

1:46:47

I think the dropoff in your 5 to 10k time, even though they are spread out, is an indicator of endurance being a bigger limiter than your speed.  If I look at the calculator and vdot tables...you will probably under perform the predictions.  Volume hasn't changed much either and speed on those longer runs is pretty slow.  Good frequency but a lot of really short runs.

I think you have a shot at low 1:42ish on a good day but breaking 1:40 would be tough.

your 5K time is pretty close to mine.  As the distances get longer, I have not been able to make it to my McMillan times.  My  PR for my 5K is 20:44 and my only 10K PR is 43:49.  My HM PR is 1:42 (which I will try and beat in a few months).  The issue is that I don't have enough volume since I only run right around 20 miles per week.  I would guess you'd be somewhere in the 1:42-44 range but there are so many other variables like temp, your taper, etc.

Good luck!

Hmmm...well, I ran everything thru my abacas and come up with a 1:43:18

This is based on your currrent volumes and training pace...I think you have the potential to go even lower...

Good luck

you have the speed to be low 1:40's IMO.

I ran a 1:45 in april and my 5k and 10k were a little slower than yours. I dont think that you are crazy at all. I hate to say it but weather might be a factor.

Good luck!

1:39:42

I think you have the distance, it is just the pace that worries me.  I ran a 13.1 in training and did a 1:36 with similar training as you earlier in the year.  I just felt good and could keep that pace.  Just run through the pain!

5K PR = 6:45/mi

10K PR = 7:15/mi

Half Mary Goal = 7:37/mi (1:40:00)

Your goal seems aggressive to me.  Your 10K PR is 30 seconds a mile slower than your 5K, your goal HM pace is 22 seconds a mile slower than your 10K pace.  If you trail off by 30 sec/mi from 5K to 10K how are you going to be able to only go 22 sec/mi slower going from 10K to 21K?

You do seem to have a decent base mileage, but most of it is at a substantially easier pace (8:30 - 9:00) and for shorter distances.  I see a lot of 3, 4, and 5 mile runs, but I don't see where your training looks to support doing 13.1 at a pace a full minute or more faster than your training pace.

I always set 3 goals for any race my should get, like to get, and holy crap did I get it.  Given what I see in your logs and from what you've said I'd look at this being your 3 goal times:

Should get 1:44:20 (barring major problems you should get this)

Like to get 1:41:35 (you should shoot for this and be very happy if you get it)

Holy crap 1:38:19 (if the running Gods shine on you and you have a perfect race)

I explained this in the OP

"The winner gets the glory and admiration of BT for all of eternity...  "

May need a special prize for you since you've already achieved that status...

Thank you everyone for your input. 

I agree that my endurance and lack of training at higher paces is likely going to be what limits me.  I will be going into uncharted territory for me at that distance and pace.  I really only decided to do the race in the last few weeks and haven't followed any sort of plan. 

I'll see how things go over the next couple of weeks before really picking a goal time and I will be sure to post back with the results.  Any other guesses and input/comments are most welcome! 

1:40 a stretch?  I have to ask - what are you smoking?  You are probably good for something in the 1:35 neighborhood.  My PRs are almost right on top of yours (training load, too) and I squeaked in under 1:36 in February.  Very similar weather and course elevation. 

I'll guess 1:36:00 and wouldn't be at all surprised at 1:35:xx.  Your 10k PR is ancient.  The 5k is much more "correct".   7:15-7:20 pace is very achievable.

While I would agree that you should do a 14 miler to get yourself physically ready for being out there a while, I say pish posh to the paces comment.  Volume will get you there and your volume is pretty good.

I say 1:40:38.

I have a question for scout and others though.  I read a lot of comments on BT about not having to run fast in training to run fast in a race, but then I’m reading comments on this thread about the OP not running fast enough in training to support a fast race.  Am I reading these comments right or missing something?  I’m about to really drink the run lots, mostly slow, kool aid this winter so I want to be sure I’m understanding what’s being said.