Subject: The ‘shy’ Biden voter Wait...what? We hear a lot about the ‘shy Trump voter’ who won’t voice their voting intention for Trump for fear of being targeted. I have no doubt there are many. The question is, how many and do the poll models make any attempt to account for this? Is this part of the margins of error? IDK. But I suspect they do not. They shy voters likely end up in the ‘undecided’ column.
They second thing I am hopeful for is the poll models are using demographic models based on previous elections. This would not account for the shift of black and Latino voters.
I am 100% certain the polls are wrong ad skewed toward Biden do to these two factor on top of their historic practice of oversimplified g Democrats. The only question for me is how wrong the polls are. If they are only off a little, Biden will likely win. If they are off 3 or 4% Trump will win. |