Blue wave

2018-03-18 7:33 AM

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: Blue wave

Dems are ecstatic about the Democrat win in PA. The dem who won was a marine and ran as a conservative. If dems take the House we will have gridlock the next 2 years. Which is why reps need to push thru what the want in the next 9 months.

Edited by Rogillio 2018-03-18 7:34 AM

2018-03-19 8:17 AM

in reply to: Rogillio

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Blue wave

"The “blueprint” goes something like this: Run a young, handsome Marine, make sure he’s pro-Second Amendment, make sure he’s anti-Nancy Pelosi, make sure he’s quiet on plans for amnesty, make sure he says he’s personally against abortion but runs like hell from any specific questions, and make sure he’s quiet about Democrats’ anti-energy agenda."

That's kind what I was thinking. Or they can use the Alabama model and make sure they run against someone with more baggage than Samsonite.

mdg2003

2018-03-19 8:39 AM

in reply to: Rogillio

Pro

6838

Tejas

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Blue ripple.

2018-03-19 10:59 AM

in reply to: mdg2003

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Dems are expecting a 'shellacking' ala the Obama midterm where the WH lost congress. One difference is Obamacare - which pizsed off a lot of people - and Tax Reform which most American agree with. Second, I don't think people vote against the president per se, they vote against what comes out of Congress. If you were angry that Obamacare came out of Congress without a single republican vote, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'. If you are upset that the that tax cuts that came out of Congress put more money in your pocket and set the economy on fire, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'.

OK, obviously that is my right-wing spin. :-) I think it will be fun to watch. My rep is Moe Brooks (R) and I doubt anyone will even run against him because he is very popular in North Alabama.

Most political experts will tell you that all elections are local and that, in the end, it's a race between two people and usually the best candidate for a given district will win.

2018-03-19 12:36 PM

in reply to: Rogillio

Expert

2373

Floriduh

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by Rogillio

Dems are expecting a 'shellacking' ala the Obama midterm where the WH lost congress. One difference is Obamacare - which pizsed off a lot of people - and Tax Reform which most American agree with. Second, I don't think people vote against the president per se, they vote against what comes out of Congress. If you were angry that Obamacare came out of Congress without a single republican vote, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'. If you are upset that the that tax cuts that came out of Congress put more money in your pocket and set the economy on fire, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'.

OK, obviously that is my right-wing spin. :-) I think it will be fun to watch. My rep is Moe Brooks (R) and I doubt anyone will even run against him because he is very popular in North Alabama.

Most political experts will tell you that all elections are local and that, in the end, it's a race between two people and usually the best candidate for a given district will win.

Don't underestimate the wave of anti-Trump sentiment out there.

2018-03-19 12:48 PM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Will we get to whine and cry for the next 2 years and go on and on about how unfair it all is?? LMAO

2018-03-19 12:49 PM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by Oysterboy

Originally posted by Rogillio Dems are expecting a 'shellacking' ala the Obama midterm where the WH lost congress. One difference is Obamacare - which pizsed off a lot of people - and Tax Reform which most American agree with. Second, I don't think people vote against the president per se, they vote against what comes out of Congress. If you were angry that Obamacare came out of Congress without a single republican vote, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'. If you are upset that the that tax cuts that came out of Congress put more money in your pocket and set the economy on fire, you might be inclined to 'vote the bums out'. OK, obviously that is my right-wing spin. :-) I think it will be fun to watch. My rep is Moe Brooks (R) and I doubt anyone will even run against him because he is very popular in North Alabama. Most political experts will tell you that all elections are local and that, in the end, it's a race between two people and usually the best candidate for a given district will win.

Don't underestimate the wave of anti-Trump sentiment out there.

Hmmmm.....where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, Nov 2016.

hessma

2018-03-19 2:45 PM

in reply to: Rogillio

Regular

549

Subject: RE: Blue wave

In other words, run as a Democrat, but talk about Republican ideas. Democrats simply know a "Democrat" is talking to them, so the ideas must be good and they will vote for the Democrat.

hessma

2018-03-19 2:48 PM

in reply to: Left Brain

Regular

549

Subject: RE: Blue wave

We have a new progressive Governor in NJ, who has promised just about everything for free, while promising tax increases. I started posting #notmygovernor on Facebook posts and you would not believe the fake outrage that my "friends" give me. The same "friends" who post that Trump is not their president. I just laugh.

hessma

2018-03-19 2:50 PM

in reply to: hessma

Regular

549

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Congressional approval ratings are in the low teen's, yet most incumbents will be re-elected. If people truly wanted change, they would go to the polls and vote for the challenger. we all know most wont.

2018-03-19 3:04 PM

in reply to: hessma

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by hessma We have a new progressive Governor in NJ, who has promised just about everything for free, while promising tax increases. I started posting #notmygovernor on Facebook posts and you would not believe the fake outrage that my "friends" give me. The same "friends" who post that Trump is not their president. I just laugh.

That's the best part of their outrage. LMAO

2018-03-19 3:33 PM

in reply to: hessma

Expert

2373

Floriduh

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by hessma

Congressional approval ratings are in the low teen's, yet most incumbents will be re-elected. If people truly wanted change, they would go to the polls and vote for the challenger. we all know most wont.

I have read that the turnover in the US congress is lower than that in the Soviet Politboro during the height of the USSR.

2018-03-19 3:37 PM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Expert

2373

Floriduh

Subject: RE: Blue wave

I pulled this graph off the Cook Political Report, I think it says a lot.

2018-03-20 7:27 AM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by Oysterboy

I pulled this graph off the Cook Political Report, I think it says a lot.

Doesn't say anything to me.....

2018-03-20 8:28 AM

in reply to: 0

Expert

2373

Floriduh

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Sorry, couldn't pull graph off webpage, shows a strong historical correlation between POTUS approval rating and number of seats lost in midterms.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/fo...

If you guys don't know Cook, his analyses are about as straight down the middle of the plate as you can get. Not good news for Trumpsters, sorry, but that's history.

Edited by Oysterboy 2018-03-20 8:32 AM

2018-03-20 8:57 AM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Pro

15655

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by Oysterboy Sorry, couldn't pull graph off webpage, shows a strong historical correlation between POTUS approval rating and number of seats lost in midterms. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/fo... If you guys don't know Cook, his analyses are about as straight down the middle of the plate as you can get. Not good news for Trumpsters, sorry, but that's history.

Since when does anything regarding Trump follow history?? LOL

2018-03-20 9:09 AM

in reply to: Oysterboy

Champion

10157

Alabama

Subject: RE: Blue wave

Originally posted by Oysterboy

Sorry, couldn't pull graph off webpage, shows a strong historical correlation between POTUS approval rating and number of seats lost in midterms.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/fo...

If you guys don't know Cook, his analyses are about as straight down the middle of the plate as you can get. Not good news for Trumpsters, sorry, but that's history.

Wow, lots of cool data there. I think Trump is the wildcard....or the wild thing. Historical models might not hold with such a radical president. People either love him or hate him. Nevertheless, I think if reps run smart races and run on the economy, I think they can hold both houses. As long as the economy is booming, people see more money in their paycheck, see their 401ks growing I think GOP has a slight advantage. I may be wrong....I often am.