Stress fracture in tibia or calf/soleus strain?

Would love to hear from one of our resident doctors on this if anyone's around.  Pretty please!

I've had 2 stress fractures in my right tibia, one in 2003, one in 2006.  I've got orthotics, a different pair after both times.  Each time the pain was totally different.  First time I couldn't bear weight at all.  I had run 18 miles the day before.  The second time it was just a nagging pain that wouldn't go away.

I've had some pain, mostly the day after my runs, for the last 2-3 weeks.  I don't run on consecutive days because of this.  I would feel slight discomfort after waking up and bearing weight first thing in the morning, but the shin would "warm up" so to speak and not bother me at all for the remainder of the day.  I wear running shoes all the time to have maximal support.

I ran 10 miles on Tuesday last week, then 4 or so on Thursday.  The shin started bothering me during the run on Thursday which was new, so I did a bit of a walk/run.  The next day and every day since last Friday, the shin seems to really bother me.  I can run my finger along the inner edge of the tibia and I find NO pointed pain spots.  None.  However, it's more the back of my shin/calf area (and possibly soleus) that is so tight.  I can best explain it sometimes as feeling a deep ache.  I have tried the one leg hop test and sometimes I can do 5 and sometimes just 1.  Regardless it's slightly uncomfortable.

Clearly I'm not going to run with this happening.  I just plan to pool run this week and until I can get in to see my ortho.

Any thoughts on not feeling any pointed pain along the inner side of the tibia (whereas I was able to feel this in the 2 prev stress fractures), and this deep ache that I sometimes feel in the calf/soleus area?  Does this sound like a stress fracture to you?

Thanks for your advice and input!