Another guess my time thread

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2012-10-07 3:01 PM

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Subject: Another guess my time thread

Just trying to get an idea of weather or not I'm being to hopeful. Doing my first 70.3 next Sunday. I ride and run on the course in training everyday. I realize my logs make my swimming look suspect. I'm comfortable with the OWS and ballpark my swim about 35-40 minutes possibly quicker (baring a NE'er in which case this race is going to suck)

If I execute my race as I plan I don't see any reason why I can't break 6 hours. The race starts at 7:15am so ideally I'd like to finish in 5:44 (NFL kicks off at 1 Tongue out). In all honesty I think I can do 5:45 but don't want to be overly confident.

Am I being realistic?

Before it's asked,no prize. Cool

2012-10-07 3:25 PM
in reply to: #4444217

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Subject: RE: Another guess my time thread

I'll split the difference in the swim, and say 37:30. Biking is really a wild guestimate combining your training rides and your race times in your oly races, especially since your Oly speeds are a lot higher than almost all your rides, even the shorter ones. So I'll play it safe and say you will do an even 3:00. The run based on your 50-55 min spread in your oly races I guess at 1:55, of course dependent on how the bike pans out Add in 5 minutes for transitions and you're looking at a 5:37:30! 

Have fun and report back I should add a disclaimer saying that I have no idea what I'm talking about and I always think people can go faster than they give themselves credit for

Oh, how do did you "compile"  your 5:44 finish time? Curious as to how you estimate your own times, obviously no one knows how you trained as well as you do.



Edited by Snaaijer 2012-10-07 3:26 PM
2012-10-07 3:59 PM
in reply to: #4444232

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Subject: RE: Another guess my time thread
Snaaijer - 2012-10-07 4:25 PM

I'll split the difference in the swim, and say 37:30. Biking is really a wild guestimate combining your training rides and your race times in your oly races, especially since your Oly speeds are a lot higher than almost all your rides, even the shorter ones. So I'll play it safe and say you will do an even 3:00. The run based on your 50-55 min spread in your oly races I guess at 1:55, of course dependent on how the bike pans out Add in 5 minutes for transitions and you're looking at a 5:37:30! 

Have fun and report back I should add a disclaimer saying that I have no idea what I'm talking about and I always think people can go faster than they give themselves credit for

Oh, how do did you "compile"  your 5:44 finish time? Curious as to how you estimate your own times, obviously no one knows how you trained as well as you do.

The 5:44 is a joke to finish at 12:59 in time for NFL kickoff.

I'd be happy with 5:37 haha. The bike is the question mark for me. I'd like to do 18.5+ to stay under 3 hours but it'll be dependent on my HR. I didn't use HR info in my OLY's and it cost me on the run. I plan on doing the run at a 9 min pace for the first 6-8 miles and will reevaluate my pace then.

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