Do you think I'm in the right ballpark? (calorie needs for weight loss)

Looking for a little guidance/input here.... I THINK I'm on the right track, but could use some reassurance/confirmation, or if I'm NOT on the right track - suggestions!

My current weight is about 155 (+/-). I would ultimately like to loose about 10 - 15 lbs.

I'm a 46 year old woman, just under 5' 9" (we'll call it 5' 8.5"). I'm pretty consistent with my tri training. MOST days I do 2 workouts a day, usually 1 in the am & 1 in the pm, and my weekly tri training is typically in the 7 - 10 hours per week range. It can vary a bit this time of year with the kids home from school, but that's what I shoot for. My workout logs on BT are pretty accurate, though I don't always record supplemental strenght training, which is fairly limited and incositent at this point (but something I would really like to incorporate more of.... working on that!). Most weeks, I do some kind of training pretty much every day - I tend to prefer "active recovery" to complete rest days, but sometimes life prevents a workout from taking place.

I'm trying to get a good handle on what my daily caloric needs are. I've looked at various calculators, etc. Daily Plate, if I set the default to very active, says somewhere around 2,400 calories per day to loose 1.5 lbs/week. FitDay, if I set the activity level to active, says I burn around 2,800 calories per day (that's without adding any extra activities in). These seem like somewhat general estimates of caloric expenditure based on activity level - I mean, to one person, extremely active might mean one three mile run 5 days/week, to another, it could mean 3 hours of exercise/day!

Anyway, I'm currently using FitDay to track calories consumed, and trying to stick to around 2,000 - 2,300 calories per day. My diet is pretty clean, with very little processed food of any kind. If anyone cares to look, you can see my FitDay Journal here: http://www.fitday.com/fitness/PublicJournals.html?Owner=jsnowash(though prior to this week, not all entries are complete, so ignore those days that look like something like 1,500 or 1,700 calories total....). I eat pretty much all day long - LOL! But small portions and pretty healthy stuff... It seems like my diet is breaking down to generally something like 50 - 60% carbs, 25 - 30% protein, the rest fat (mostly what is naturally in the foods I eat, plus a little cooking oil or dressing of some sort here and there).

Does this seem like a good target for calories per day based on my profile (age, gender, height, weight, and activity level) to achieve my weight loss goals?

Also, do most of you keep your calories per day pretty consistent on days when you are more active vs. less active? It seems if I try to restrict my calories more on my less active days I am famished. I figure if I keep the calories pretty consistent, as long as my weekly activity is at about the same level, it will all sort of balance out....

Sorry this got so long, but thanks for any advice you can offer!