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Polls (Page 13)
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 2016-10-27 4:10 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro  9391     Omaha, NE |  Subject: RE: PollsOriginally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by Rogillio Yesterday ABC News had Clinton up by 12. Today Clinton is only up by 9. That's a big swing for 'statistical noise'....but is within the margin of error. Same poll now shows Clinton up by 6. I predict all of the "out there" polls will tighten up over the next week and a half and then when Trump wins the election they'll say "see, we were accurate". #RiggedElection |
| 2016-10-27 9:42 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by Rogillio Yesterday ABC News had Clinton up by 12. Today Clinton is only up by 9. That's a big swing for 'statistical noise'....but is within the margin of error. Same poll now shows Clinton up by 6. I predict all of the "out there" polls will tighten up over the next week and a half and then when Trump wins the election they'll say "see, we were accurate". #RiggedElection Tony- Forget investing in the stock market...do you realize how much money you could make by putting it all on Trump right now? The returns could be YUUUUGE! My prediction, overall, Hillary by 4.3% overall...with north of 300 electoral votes. What's the over/under on the number of women Trump groped coming forward? We're up to 13 now. Miss Finland is our latest. I don't know if I trust her...that dress she saved with the tiny hand prints on the butt...those could have been placed there by a little niece of hers to make it look like Trump did it. |
| 2016-10-28 8:14 AM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by Rogillio Yesterday ABC News had Clinton up by 12. Today Clinton is only up by 9. That's a big swing for 'statistical noise'....but is within the margin of error. Same poll now shows Clinton up by 6. I predict all of the "out there" polls will tighten up over the next week and a half and then when Trump wins the election they'll say "see, we were accurate". #RiggedElection Tony- Forget investing in the stock market...do you realize how much money you could make by putting it all on Trump right now? The returns could be YUUUUGE! My prediction, overall, Hillary by 4.3% overall...with north of 300 electoral votes. What's the over/under on the number of women Trump groped coming forward? We're up to 13 now. Miss Finland is our latest. I don't know if I trust her...that dress she saved with the tiny hand prints on the butt...those could have been placed there by a little niece of hers to make it look like Trump did it. OK, you are now on the record. BTW, that same ABC news poll that has Clinton up by 12 now has her up by 4. My prediction is Trump with 295. That means he will have to take FL, NC, CO, AZ, NV and PA......although he doesn't need PA if he takes FL, NC, CO, AZ, NV. There is still a week left....I don't expect any more surprises....it's kinda like when London was bombed 57 consecutive days in WWII. Want is one more bombing run really gonna do that hasn't already been done. I think the rallies are good and that is both campaign's best get-out-the-vote tool. You get people fired up and they will vote. And when everyone else in the office is going to the polls, well you might as well too. |
| 2016-10-28 9:03 AM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy OK, you are now on the record. BTW, that same ABC news poll that has Clinton up by 12 now has her up by 4. My prediction is Trump with 295. That means he will have to take FL, NC, CO, AZ, NV and PA......although he doesn't need PA if he takes FL, NC, CO, AZ, NV. There is still a week left....I don't expect any more surprises....it's kinda like when London was bombed 57 consecutive days in WWII. Want is one more bombing run really gonna do that hasn't already been done. I think the rallies are good and that is both campaign's best get-out-the-vote tool. You get people fired up and they will vote. And when everyone else in the office is going to the polls, well you might as well too. Originally posted by tuwood Tony- Forget investing in the stock market...do you realize how much money you could make by putting it all on Trump right now? The returns could be YUUUUGE! My prediction, overall, Hillary by 4.3% overall...with north of 300 electoral votes. What's the over/under on the number of women Trump groped coming forward? We're up to 13 now. Miss Finland is our latest. I don't know if I trust her...that dress she saved with the tiny hand prints on the butt...those could have been placed there by a little niece of hers to make it look like Trump did it. Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by Rogillio Yesterday ABC News had Clinton up by 12. Today Clinton is only up by 9. That's a big swing for 'statistical noise'....but is within the margin of error. Same poll now shows Clinton up by 6. I predict all of the "out there" polls will tighten up over the next week and a half and then when Trump wins the election they'll say "see, we were accurate". #RiggedElection Agree, but I suspect Trumps margin of victory will even be higher. Here's the real data from actual election turnout. The D+ represents what percentage more D's turned out than R's. As you can see, Obama had a noticeable uptick because of his popularity and appeal. In comparison the ABCNews poll is using a Dem +9 sample to get the numbers they're getting. Even with the ridiculous bias they're using they can only give her a 4 point advantage. With Trumps popularity and more importantly Clintons unpopularity, I could easily see an even turnout or even a R+ turnout which would put Trump in +5%-10% range. Obviously it's not the popular vote that counts and even with Obama, he mostly ran up the score in California and New York. It would have only taken a few hundred thousand votes in a handful of states for Romney to have flipped the election. Without question if the election turnout is indeed D+9 then Hillary will win hands down and Trump is finished. However, record primary turnout for Republicans, the refusal of Sanders supporters to get behind Hillary, and a massive wave of independent support for Trump make those grandiose predictions laughable. Oh yeah, not to mention a continued drip of scandals the next two weeks for Hillary. |
| 2016-10-28 9:37 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Polls I watched a bunch of CNN yesterday.....I don't know how many times someone on that channel said, "Trump can't win". It's laughable. |
| 2016-10-28 9:40 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Left Brain I watched a bunch of CNN yesterday.....I don't know how many times someone on that channel said, "Trump can't win". It's laughable. They do have a pretty good track record to stand behind:
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| 2016-10-28 10:55 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain I watched a bunch of CNN yesterday.....I don't know how many times someone on that channel said, "Trump can't win". It's laughable. They do have a pretty good track record to stand behind:
LOL - dude.....he could still get nominated, 1% ain't too bad. |
| 2016-10-28 11:25 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Left Brain I watched a bunch of CNN yesterday.....I don't know how many times someone on that channel said, "Trump can't win". It's laughable. To me it just shows the arrogance of the media and how out of touch they are with the discontent so many people have with government. Finally someone stood up and gave the establishment the middle finger and refused to bow down to kiss the rings of the GOP elite and the Wall Street power brokers. He may yet still lose but put up a heck of a fight. |
| 2016-10-28 11:27 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
| Chicago, IL | Subject: RE: Polls Hillary - 334 (AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IL, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI) Hillary wins by a landslide. Trump goes full conspiracy theorist in his "concession" speech where, among many other utterly insane remarks, he tries to spin his humiliating loss as a victory. 11 days, 10 hours, and 33 minutes to go until Trump goes back to being a sociopathic inconvenience to society, rather than a danger. |
| 2016-10-28 11:41 AM in reply to: Brit Abroad |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Brit Abroad Hillary - 334 (AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IL, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI) Hillary wins by a landslide. Trump goes full conspiracy theorist in his "concession" speech where, among many other utterly insane remarks, he tries to spin his humiliating loss as a victory. 11 days, 10 hours, and 33 minutes to go until Trump goes back to being a sociopathic inconvenience to society, rather than a danger. I'm going to enjoy reading your post the most on November 9th when Trump wins. |
| 2016-10-28 11:52 AM in reply to: Brit Abroad |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Brit Abroad Hillary - 334 (AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, HI, IL, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WI) Hillary wins by a landslide. Trump goes full conspiracy theorist in his "concession" speech where, among many other utterly insane remarks, he tries to spin his humiliating loss as a victory. 11 days, 10 hours, and 33 minutes to go until Trump goes back to being a sociopathic inconvenience to society, rather than a danger. So do you actually work for MSNBC or are you just a DNC consultant? Than again, is there any difference? :-) I don't think this will be over after Nov 8th. The 'movement' aspect of Trump supporters is not going to just lay down and quit. My guess is they will immediately start going after the mid-terms elections much the way the Tea Party did. All it would take is a dynamic leader with the backing of Trump to form a 3rd party...the reform party.....and they will go after both dems and reps in the mid-terms. |
| 2016-10-28 3:36 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Elite 3515 Romeoville, Il | Subject: RE: Polls It doesn't look like we've learned anything from our friends abroad with the Brexit Polls |
| 2016-10-28 5:53 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Champion 10157 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by Rogillio Yesterday ABC News had Clinton up by 12. Today Clinton is only up by 9. That's a big swing for 'statistical noise'....but is within the margin of error. Same poll now shows Clinton up by 6. Trump campaign follows me! Just heard the head of Trump campaign mgr say "we just saw ABC News poll go from 12 to 4". That's what I said!!!! |
| 2016-10-28 6:21 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls The Trump internal polling is showing them even in MI and NM which are strong blue states. (this of course before FBI Gate) |
| 2016-10-28 9:49 PM in reply to: #5192708 |
| New user 175 | Subject: RE: Polls The chickens have come home to roost. ..JW |
| 2016-10-29 8:13 AM in reply to: goforit |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls What, they're changing the turnout models now that the election is getting close. If only somebody could have foreseen this... http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-pr... |
| 2016-10-29 6:13 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood The Trump internal polling is showing them even in MI and NM which are strong blue states. (this of course before FBI Gate) BWAHAHA! "Trump Internal Polling." That's fresh.  Romney's team was certain of victory in '12 despite the fact the real polls (not internal polls) told the real story. Keep tryin' to spin it Trumpians! November 9th, you've got a big ol' crow dinner waitin' for ya! |
| 2016-10-29 6:16 PM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood BWAHAHA! "Trump Internal Polling." That's fresh. The Trump internal polling is showing them even in MI and NM which are strong blue states. (this of course before FBI Gate) ...because we all know how Trump meticulously analyzes situations. LOL Romney's team was certain of victory in '12 despite the fact the real polls (not internal polls) told the real story. Keep tryin' to spin it Trumpians! November 9th, you've got a big ol' crow dinner waitin' for ya! Do you consider the 10 point drop for Hillary in a week in the ABCNews poll (that you love) to be a sign of strength for Hillary? |
| 2016-10-29 6:28 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood BWAHAHA! "Trump Internal Polling." That's fresh. The Trump internal polling is showing them even in MI and NM which are strong blue states. (this of course before FBI Gate) ...because we all know how Trump meticulously analyzes situations. LOL Romney's team was certain of victory in '12 despite the fact the real polls (not internal polls) told the real story. Keep tryin' to spin it Trumpians! November 9th, you've got a big ol' crow dinner waitin' for ya! Do you consider the 10 point drop for Hillary in a week in the ABCNews poll (that you love) to be a sign of strength for Hillary? You are morphing into Trump himself! "(that you love)" for God's sake Tony, when did I say I loved the ABCNews Poll???? That's right, I didn't, but if you say I did, that's what folks think. Straight out of Trump's playbook! Hilarious stuff. Yes, polls are tighter a week before the election. That's politics. Don't let it deter your inner Kelly Conway! Spin, spin, spin! The average of the polls has been calling the past several elections...yet, with the count of women claiming he inappropriately touched them now up to 13, you believe Trump will have women voting for him to help ensure a landslide Trump victory. hearts, and have them singing his praises...because he respects them so much...riiiiight.  |
| 2016-10-29 7:53 PM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood You are morphing into Trump himself! "(that you love)" for God's sake Tony, when did I say I loved the ABCNews Poll???? That's right, I didn't, but if you say I did, that's what folks think. Straight out of Trump's playbook! Hilarious stuff. Yes, polls are tighter a week before the election. That's politics. Don't let it deter your inner Kelly Conway! Spin, spin, spin! Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood BWAHAHA! "Trump Internal Polling." That's fresh. The Trump internal polling is showing them even in MI and NM which are strong blue states. (this of course before FBI Gate) ...because we all know how Trump meticulously analyzes situations. LOL Romney's team was certain of victory in '12 despite the fact the real polls (not internal polls) told the real story. Keep tryin' to spin it Trumpians! November 9th, you've got a big ol' crow dinner waitin' for ya! Do you consider the 10 point drop for Hillary in a week in the ABCNews poll (that you love) to be a sign of strength for Hillary? The average of the polls has been calling the past several elections...yet, with the count of women claiming he inappropriately touched them now up to 13, you believe Trump will have women voting for him to help ensure a landslide Trump victory. ....he's going to grab them by their....................... hearts, and have them singing his praises...because he respects them so much...riiiiight. Hey, look at the bright side. We both get to find out whose right in a little over a week. Hopefully Hillary isn't in jail by then. :-D |
| 2016-10-30 2:14 PM in reply to: 0 |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls NYT poll Trump +4 in Florida (pre-Weinergate) http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html Hillary looking solid Edited by tuwood 2016-10-30 2:16 PM |
| 2016-10-31 9:46 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Polls are so laughable. ABCNews busted tweaking their turnout to +10% Dems from +9% to allow Hillary to still have a +1% lead.
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| 2016-11-02 7:01 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls I can never figure out RCP. Sometimes they include polls and sometimes they don't. They used to put the LA Times in ever week but now they don't. Now here's something I also found interesting yesterday. I know we've talked about the electoral map being set up for Democrats so that Republicans have a much harder time of winning the White House. However. it seems that Nate Silver's latest blog post doesn't jive with that. If I read that correctly he's basically saying if the popular vote is within 2 points Trump has a lot of paths and if it is tied nationally then it's probably a Trump victory.
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| 2016-11-02 7:17 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls |
| 2016-11-02 7:39 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood I can never figure out RCP. Sometimes they include polls and sometimes they don't. They used to put the LA Times in ever week but now they don't. Now here's something I also found interesting yesterday. I know we've talked about the electoral map being set up for Democrats so that Republicans have a much harder time of winning the White House. However. it seems that Nate Silver's latest blog post doesn't jive with that. If I read that correctly he's basically saying if the popular vote is within 2 points Trump has a lot of paths and if it is tied nationally then it's probably a Trump victory.
Hah, RCP must have seen my post. They just added the latest LATimes back in and it's now Clinton +1.7 |
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