Bird Flu (Page 2)
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Master ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | ![]() dontracy - 2005-11-16 4:03 PM I pray that the bird flu does not migrate and that it is limited to the few poor souls who have contracted it from birds. But, given the righteous indignation so many people had toward Katrina officials, I'd have thought that folks would be up to speed on what to do if the bird flu hits. Maybe everyone will have an opinion if it actually does hit and we find again that the officials did not have a plan to handle it. Like Renee said, as she rallies us all to swim and talk smack, this is not something you can stop. You can't realistically stick everybody in a bubble. Even if you go out and buy a respirator tomorrow, it has to be specifically sized to your face. It wouldn't help your wife. If this turns into a pandemic, I'd guess there'd be a lockdown on travel to those countries with the bird flu. One of the main ways it's traveling, according to a lecture given recently by another UGA college, is through bird smuggling - i.e. fighting cocks. They say this is a worse problem than the migratory birds. Just another note to add to your worry |
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![]() | ![]() Renee - From what I've read, this flu hits the able-bodied population harder than the very young and old (different than your normal flu profile).It's gonna be a bumpy ride if the virus mutates. Maybe McDonalds cooked this up to rid the world of triathletes. ![]() Renee - It's gonna be a bumpy ride if the virus mutates. Very bumpy, I'd say. |
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Elite ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | ![]() The avian influenza H5N1 is still essentially a bird-to-bird flu, but as with the other strains of influenza that circulate the earth and cause outbreaks each season across the globe that began as animal-animal transmission, H5N1 could very likely mutate to a bird-human strain. A few cases, fine, but far from being anything near the numbers to worry.
Should you worry? Not unless you live in Given that we live in a global village with worldwide travel, those who are sleeping with the chickens don’t accumulate frequent flyer miles, if you know what I mean, so nix the worry.
Yes, we are long overdue for another global pandemic ala Spanish flu, but it is jumping the gun to believe that it will be avian flu. Not to mean we shouldn’t be prepared, but it needs to be put into proper perspective and we should not fall into the trap of having the media scaring us all into taping our windows shut and crawling in the basement.
My work involves infection control, and I work with physicians and public health workers who are bombarded daily with the most up-to-date information on H5N1, and it has been given far too much media attention.
As for vaccines, there are two being tested that hold promise, and the antiviral Tamiflu has shown effectiveness in treating symptoms. As for Rosche being able to keep up with production, that is a matter of who you talk to. |
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Veteran ![]() ![]() ![]() | ![]() I just got back from a trip to China and one of the meetings was with a representative of the WHO. He gave a presentation on the Avian Flu. Disclosure, I was in China looking for investments and this was just one of many presentations. I am not an expert and only recount the presentation for those that care. The current H5N1 strain has been circulating since 1996. Understand, China has 14 BILLION domestic birds, 70-80% are kept in backyard farms. For it to become an influenza pandemic you need a new strain to emerge that can easily infect humans, can cause sever disease, and can spread easily among humans. So far that has not happened. But, mutations continually happen so there is always a chance that the "right"combination of mutations will occur. Restricting travel would be helpful, but logistically impossible. In the US pandemic of 1918 it spread across the entire country in three weeks. Keep in mind, that was before air travel. Statistically, we are "overdue" for a pandemic. There was one in 1918 (between 20-40 million deaths), 1957 (1-4 million deaths), and1968 (1-4 million deaths). The real problem will not be the number of dead, although that will be tragic. Advances in medicine will probably reduce the number of deaths. The problem will be the breakdown of society. Estimates are for 20-30% of the population to be ill at the same time. Imagine the impact on basic social services; police, fire, health care, etc. It will all depend on how the mutation occurs. Generally, the more deadly the disease the harder it is to transmit. Conversely, less deadly diseases tend to transmit more rapidly. I don't mean to be an alarmist. There are steps being taken. China has already vaccinated 25% of their poultry. Similar, but less successful, attempts are being made in neighboring countries. There is no reason to panic now as their is nothing you can do. Tamiflu might be effective if taken within 47 hours of being affected but it is only temporary. As soon as you stop taking it you are at risk for being infected again. There is avery good article on the Avian Flu in last month's Scientific American if you want additional information. Again, I only repeat what was explained to me. I am no expert and encourage you to look for information from reliable sources. Here is the link to the section of the WHO website that talks about the Avian Flu. http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/pandemic/en/index.html. |
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