Florida lakes, running, and alligators (oh my) (Page 2)

Well since they're aren't alligators in most states and major metro areas its probably more like 200 to 17, and if you compare percentage of runners / walkers in gator areas to everyone in that region (since anyone outside can be a victim of an alcohol related crime but special conditions are needed for gator attacks, I would say its maybe 5/1.

Anyway, I don't think I'm helping much with the conversation, but I think there is some risk involved. 

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This seems alot like the shark bite statistics to me. Nationally you have a better chance of getting hit by lightning than bitten by a shark. Of course those who live in Nebraska and Wyoming skew that stat quite a bit. When you narrow the statistical net to those who swim in the ocean where sharks feed, the bite probability goes up pretty dramatically. Same goes here I think. The chances of you getting bitten by a gator are very low, unless you are in their environment running by their feeding grounds. Will you get bit? probably not, but when you enter the food chain anything can happen. I have a feeling that you will be so spooked when you run that trail that you will lose interest over time and chose another route. I know I sound like a complete chicken sh#t, but to me there are enough things to worry about in this world, being eaten by a gator is one I don't feel like adding to the list on a regular basis.

Does anyone know if Halt or pepper spray works against gators? That may be a thought, or they may just think of it as a seasoning.

I meant in Florida. Outside of zoos, you have 0% chance of getting killed by an alligator in Alaska and 0% chance of getting killed by a polar bear in Florida. Alligators are found in all 57 counties in Florida in just about every pond, lake and river so anyone who goes outside in Florida will encounter alligators.

11,000+ dui deaths were in 1 year. Florida has pop of 16 million, accounting for 5% of the national population. So, 5% of 11,000 = 550 deaths in 2008.

17 people killed in Florida by alligators over a 57 year span = .3 deaths / year.

So, if you lived in Florida, your chances of getting killed in a DUI accident is 550 : .3, 1500X greater chance of getting killed in a DUI than by an alligator.

Sure, there is some risk involved if you consider .3 persons out of 16,000,000 = 1 in 48,000,000 in a year. Those odds are lower than the odds of winning the Florida Lottery.

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Edited by rowotter 2010-03-19 10:37 AM

Can you delete errant posts somehow?

Edited by rowotter 2010-03-19 10:38 AM

MANY of the gator "attacks" are related to two things:  people dying near alligators and people feeding them.  As you probably heard, people like to retire in FL; these people have a greater chance of dying from natural causes than a young triathlete.  Basically, a dead person near the water is awfully enticing meal for an alligator, thus another "attack" has occurred.  Secondly, people like to feed them, and as you can imagine, this sometimes leads to a bad situation.

Alligators are ambush predators; a large mammal running by is not really a practical prey source at all.  They can run fast, but not as fast as you can (over a distance of 10yds at least) and have no intentions of trying to chase you down.

Obviously you don't want to jump on one basking in the trail, but if you respect them, you should be fine. 

People really just don't understand gators.  They want nothing to do with you.  Really - they don't want contact with people.

I grew up in deep south Louisiana - much higher density of gators than the Tampa area.  Swam in gator infested waters all the time.  I was always much more afraid of coming up on a cottonmouth.  The worst injury I ever heard to a human in a gator attack was a guy who scared one sunning and got two broken legs for his trouble when the gator lashed out with his tail.  I can remember a couple stories of toddlers being taken (and lots of dogs), but no adults.  They just don't want anything your size.

The fear over gators needs to be corrected, particularly down in that part of Florida where houses are built on the edge of a swamp and then you see news stories of scared new home owners and gators being removed.  Sigh.

Moral of the story:  Don't sneak up on sunning areas.  Don't send your pooch into a lake.   And gators make for great boots and delicious soup.