Advice on my IMLP strategy

I have a few questions about creating my IMLP race strategy.

Goals: I'd love to beat my co-workers race time of 12:56. If I have a good day and everything goes my way, I can do this. I'm looking to give myself the best chances of doing so, maybe taking a few risks. If it doesn't workout, that's fine - it's my first IM so I'll be happy finishing with me best effort regardless of time. Being my first IM, however, I'm not sure what the best strategy is hence the post.

The Swim: I swam a 35 in my first 70.3 (Mooseman). I never did any swimming before Nov of last year, so I don't have a lot of experience to draw from here. I felt fine, pushed it a bit with a decent to hard pace, but not an all out effort - maybe 85% or so. I swam the LP course yesterday (it was modified for some boat race). I did the 2.2 mile course (according to the 910xt) in 1:16. This pace is a very relaxed easy effort (definately more relaxed than my Mooseman pace) and what I was thinking of executing on race day. I feel I could cut out 5 or so minutes by pushing harder but not sure how that will effect things later on. Here's the two mentioned swims if you want to see the data: Mooseman http://connect.garmin.com/activity/185348895LP http://connect.garmin.com/activity/196776459Should I push it harder or go relaxed? I'm using a xterra vortex suit. I could rent there best suit if it would make a difference.

The Bike: This is more or less dialed in. I plan on riding a 163 watt normalized power average - this should put me at about a 7hr split. Here's a loop I did yesterday on the course after the swim and it felt like a good pace to execute: http://connect.garmin.com/activity/196776460I don't think going any slower will help and wouldn't want to push harder, maybe a watt. I could make some gear changes though. This was done with a ksyrium sl front and a open pro powertap rear. I could rent better wheels and get a aero helmet. Would 7-8 minutes be a reasonable gain on the ride with those upgrades? I'd love to pick up a few minutes, it all helps.

The Run: Here's the big unknown. I ran a 2:08 at Mooseman with a slight negative split: http://connect.garmin.com/activity/185348952I totally botched my bike strategy there and my legs felt smoked at the start. To my surprise, I felt great throughout the entire run. I didn't feel like any of the ride or swim effected my run - it was strange. Anyhow, I'm not a fast runner. After Mooseman, I had a lot of pain in my achilles & knees (didn't feel any pain during the run). It took a month for all of that to heal and I just now feel like I'm about back to where I was. I'm thinking of starting with a 9:50 pace and just see how it goes. I don't think there's much I can do about the run - I either can execute or not.

Thoughts? Anything I'm missing? I'm open to suggestions. Keep in mind I'm just a beginner here, don't have a ton of knowledge...


Edited by guy2600 2012-07-08 2:45 PM