BellinghamSpence - 2012-08-03 1:03 AM
If/when Assad goes down....Would/could Syria be taken by hardcore fundamentalist like Iraq or Egypt.
I think he needs to go, but just wonder about the vacum that is left in place and how it's filled. Seems like Russia is trying to have some say in what/where Syria falls.
Both the last 2 posts bring-up the critical points. We want a balance in that region that really was only there 1) in the WW2 era of shahs that were under ours or british control or 2) I was going to say when we were funneling Money to Iran and Iraq simultaneously, but that was a huge, bloody war so nevermind. Only one time in history has there been some semblance of balance... Otherwise, you have horrible ruthless dictatorships (most successful being Saddam, Assad's Father, and Mubarak). Saudi has a particularly ruthless kingdom, but they're allowed to because they are "the protectors of Mecca". If they don't like your country, they won't let you come to Mecca for your pilgrimages.
I never understood the Russia/Syria thing. I think they get some warm water ports to stop at. Other than that, I don't get why they would back this...But then again, Russia was doing the same type of killing in Georgia during the last olympics... If Russia literally took over Syria, I think things would be better for the whole region to be honest. It would give the militants someone else to beat on.
Muslim Brotherhood which is now in-charge in Egypt is Sunni. Like the majority of Syria. They led the uprising in Hama in the 80s that Assad's father was famous for (he buldozed and compacted an entire town and then brought the other village leaders to see the bodies that were now part of the road. Search Hama Massacre Wiki).
Iraq is led by Shi'a, the same as Iran. Completely different from the MB/Sunnis.
What I think is almost inevitable in the Middle East regardless of what we do or the UN does is that the Sunnis and Shia will split the entire region with the other minor sects (Kurds for example) being crushed in the middle and then you'll see Iraq/Iran form a Islamic Republic and Egypt, Syria, Saudi forming the Islamic Kingdom or something like that. Jordan may be the only safe government, but even they are nervous... Israel would at that point move to take over all of historical Israel. It'll be a bloody mess, but then it'll stabilize again into a very similar unease.
When Kofi Annan went in to Syria as the UN envoy 3 weeks ago, I said to my Dad... "It's all good, Kofi's going in... He did such a great job with that oil for food program." Kofi quit last week...