Investment / Trading Ideas

Was jsut thinking about his this morning on the way in after hearing the GDP contraction numbers.  You may or may not have seen Amazon's numbers and the reaction (mind blowing when compared to Apple numbers and reaction).  CSX (which I'm in) is showing strong numbers faced with some serious headwinds (so can't figure out what's going on there). and the list goes on.

I can't figure out WHAT the heck is going on in the market.  It seems like good news is bad news and vice versa.  It jsut makes no sense what-so-ever to me.  Like not even a little bit.

What I do know is that expectations here in Texas are that we're going to blow it up this year.  Inventory stocks are on the rise, jobs are on the books with heavy back logs, business sentiment is high, investment is high in anticipation of a good year, so I'm THINKING (haven't done anything yet, just thinking) about selling some under performing stocks I have, or ones that have peaked out, and looking for some small - mid caps that have a majority presence in Texas.

I don't think Apple will be going below 430.  In fact, I expect to to 500 before 430.  The drop last weeks makes no sense at all!  Then again...look at Amazon yesterday.  Like jgaither said, this market makes no sense at all.  I looked at your suggestion the the medical weed company. Interesting but not a lot of information and it's a penny stock...which scares me. 

I would advise going long on a 313 but watching the NRP or the GPR for the 22-60 in the market or following the S&P under the nlm.  Shorting on the 6628 with an NLTR or GH265 but divesting with 21Ks.  The GDP shows ldg for the bcs in the coming decade based on the major DOW, NAS and 585 indicators.

... and your seat is too high.

X2

isn't a 585 indicator some sort of air monitoring device?

I pretty much stay away from individual equities because I don't have the time to really dig in and understand individual companies or industries.  I took a break from the markets for a couple years and got back into trading options last August.

My current strategy is mostly neutral and maximizes profit in a flat or trending market.  I trade QQQ weekly options because it doesn't have huge swings and it's a lot easier to anticipate the market for 7 days versus 30.

Each expiration day I look at the 30 and 90 day moving averages to get an up or down bias.  I then put a diagonal spread based on whatever direction my indicators give me.
If I'm feeling bullish for the month I'll buy next months Call at about $5 in the money (looking for a +.90 Delta) then I sell the next week (7 days out) At the money Call.  If the market stays flat, or goes up in the next 7 days I make max profit generally around 8%-10% per week.  I then roll the short option to the following week At the money and repeat for the entire month.  The only way I lose money is if the market moves fairly strong down, but I'm only risking 30% of my portfolio so when that happens the loss is generally minimal.

If I feel bearish for the month I put do the same thing only with a diagonal put spread.  With the put spread I lose money if the market moves up sharply.

Currently with the market peaking the signals are bullish, but I'm feeling bearish so I have a put spread on this month.

I'm currently sitting on:
+30 QQQ Feb13 71 Put
-30 QQQ FebWk1 67 Put

I have only been doing this strategy since August so I have to see how it pans out in the long run, but since August I'm up 310% so I can't complain.

Someone once explained commodities by describing the time they went long on oranges and then had to pay to store the actual oranges when they couldn't sell them in-time.  

Or was that a Trading Places reference?  

If so, I say Pork Bellies!!!  That's where it's at!

Edited TLC show to reflect 1980's Eddie Murphy/Dan Akroyd movie...

I remember talk of making people take possession of oil several years ago when the "speculators" were supposedly driving the price of oil up.  "Uh honey, there's a huge oil truck out front... What exactly have you been up to?"

"Buy low, sell high."  Done.

FAR easier said than done.

I've replaced "Buy low, sell high." with "Don't get greedy." because with all the fluctuations it's not too terribly hard to buy low and sell high.  What IS hard is selling a stock that is making you money that you think still has some room left to run.  I like to pick a percentage I want to earn on a stock and set a limit order on sale once I've bought it.  I just accept that I may miss out on some returns, I'm ok with that.

See, that's in a properly functioning market. With Bernanke dumping $85B/month into the economy though, it will probably do the opposite and keep going up.

I hear ya. Just think we live in a mean reverting world. Mostly...

Did anyone buy the MJNA ? Its doubled in price since the first comment. (Not a brag)

Yes, it was meant to be in reference to the movie. 

this is the best tip I have had in a long time.  I bought 3000 shares last week and they have almost doubled as of today.  I still think this stock has more gains in it.  Thanks!

So far so good. Price action has gone a little schizo the last couple days but that can be typical of pk stocks. I like this company a lot. Its a ctually a portfolio of companies focused on the medical marijuana industry (www.medicalmarijuanainc.com). I think 1.20-1.50 is easily attainable within weeks. I had this chat with a doctor friend of mine. From a professional stand point there are so many applications for prescriptions. Doctors are very much coming around to getting behind this. Once it gets AMA backing and industry wide acceptance I see no limit (yes I know this is the kiss of death) to how high it can go. 

THAT SAID- EVERYONE SHOULD PLEASE ALWAYS DO THEIR OWN RESEARCH AND DUE DILIGENCE, AND JUDGE RISKS ACCORDINGLY.