Polls (Page 10)

Sadly in contrast Hillary is even less business being the leader of the free world.   

All of the polls have to "predict" an expected turnout this year based on whatever information they gather.  most of them use historical models, which in my opinion have a high risk of failure in such an unconventional election.  What I do try to gain out of the polls is trends because each respective polling outfit uses essentially the same bias/model throughout and applies it to their respondents.  So Rasmussen may be +5 Trump or +5 Clinton and I don't really care.  What I care about is how it is trending.  Flat, up or down for each one.  All of the polls have essentially trended with each other, they just have different baselines due to the disparity in turnout predictions.

Nate does have solid science in his research, but he also has just enough magic sauce that he filters through his own personal gut/bias.  He was very wrong during the Republican primary because he just couldn't wrap his head around Trump and his support.  He has admitted as much.  So a guy that was proven wrong over and over again in the primaries is now all of a sudden perfectly accurate with the same guy in the general election?  He could be, but we all should treat him as just another datapoint.

I do like watching his daily predictions, but he's been all over the place based on what's going on for the day so it really doesn't mean anything until his final prediction on November 7th. (my birthday btw)   

I've genuinely tried to understand it, but it's a whole statistical math thing that's way over my head.  They are generally pretty good at getting a picture of what's going on nationally, but where they have problems is predicting turnout in odd ball elections.  As long as the same percentages of people show up to vote every year they're pretty solid.  If they get an unexpected turnout, then all heck breaks loose. 

The pollsters (and many here) don't believe Trumps enthusiasm will drive any additional people to the polls.  There's also another side of it in that Hillary has to get the same level of turnout as Obama did in 2012.  If both is the case then the polls will be very accurate, but if either/both of them break down then it could get ugly fast. 

The thing about primaries is the turnout is generally a very politically active / vocal subset of voters.  That's true both for Republicans and Democrats.  It is *especially* true in caucus states, because going to caucus is a pain in the rear compared to just voting.

I think that, combined with this year's Republican primary having an unusually high number of candidates, probably led him astray.

No question it is more difficult to predict in the primaries.  The nerd in me is genuinely curious to see how all the polls shake out come election day.

Good summary here in bold, of the effect that caucuses have on turnout:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/primaries_versus_caucuses_the_score_so_far_in_2016

I'm not a fan of caucuses because they really depress voting, a lot.

Btw, even more effed up is MY state.  We have a primary vote -- which *doesn't count for anything* (for Democrats).  The caucus is what gets counted.  But a lot of people just get their primary ballot in the mail and think they did their civic duty.  It's completely ridiculous.

this was interesting

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/26/obamas-campaign-guru-dont-fret-about-polls-clinton-is-winning-and-she-can-finish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.cd3f759f96ff

UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump gains support in all but 5 states

Seems odd for somebody who did "so bad" in the first debate. 

Colorado
Monmouth 9/29-10/2 Clinton 49, Trump 38
UPI/CVoter 9/29-10/2 Clinton 48 Trump 47
Reuters/Ipsos 9/16-9/29 Clinton 43, Trump 45   (includes few days after debate)
PPP 9/27-9/28 Clinton 46 Trump 40

It seems as though Monmouth is kind of the "LA Times" on steroids for the Clinton side.  They always seem to be wildly embellished for her in the way that LA Times seems to be somewhat embellished to Trump.  Since early September I don't think any other poll has had CO more than 6 points apart (PPP 9/27-9/28) and Monmouth is +11??? 

Uh oh Tony, LA Times has Clinton in the lead. 

hehe, oh noes...  

No question he will take a dip from the locker room antics (need to come up with a good ####gate name for it). 

I predict within two weeks the polls will be back tied.  Trump has been "finished" so many times the last year it's almost predictable at this point.

Man, I wish I had your confidence about anything. Especially the Cubs. 

As long as we have the electoral college system, neither candidate will ever be out of the race. But the trend is not looking good for the Donald. Bold move to go on the attack against the GOP. Even bolder move to tell his supporters to make sure they vote on November 28. We'll see if it works out for him. 

Honestly this race is so crazy that you and I both know there's going to be more bombs going off.  It's hard to be confident in either side winning at this point IMHO.  Even if Hillary is up 10% November 7th it wouldn't surprise me one bit to have a landslide Trump victory the next day or vis versa. 

It would be equally unprecedented for Hillary to keep all her skeletons buried for another 30 days.   

Honestly, if this were any normal election there would be zero chance of a candidate coming back from something like this.  However, there is no precedent for us to follow and absolutely anything can happen.

I obviously want Trump to win, but have no clue if he will or not.  I just know that all kinds of heck is going to go down the next several weeks and none of us know where the dust is going to settle.
As an example, Anonymous just released a video stating they are going to release a Bill sex tape that contains criminal behavior with an underage girl.  I have no idea if it's true and it probably isn't, but with this election year it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. 

Rasmussen has Trump up 2 today.  Hillary was up 7 on Monday with the tape coming into play, but I can only assume Trumps massive debate win is kicking in now and completely wiped out the tape gate negatives.

What's cherry picking?  I shared the latest Rasmussen poll.

Remember, every poll has it's bias and the momentum is what is important.  Hillary got a big swing in all the polls after the tape came out last Friday and now that the debate schlonging is kicking in and there's a constant drip of emails exposing her level of corruption they're swinging back.  

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers Your cherry-picking of polls is beyond reproach!

What's cherry picking?  I shared the latest Rasmussen poll.

Remember, every poll has it's bias and the momentum is what is important.  Hillary got a big swing in all the polls after the tape came out last Friday and now that the debate schlonging is kicking in and there's a constant drip of emails exposing her level of corruption they're swinging back.  

My God Tony you are living in fantasy land. Even Fox News has Hillary up 7 points...with an average of all the polls at RCP at 5.3 If you want to pretend "they're swinging back," go right ahead...but you have no evidence to support your claim. The last time Trump led in the General Election polls, it was July 30th. It was the post RNC Convention bump. Since August 1st, Hillary has led the race the entire way. Fresh off the heels of the DNC bump. The scary thing for Trump fans is that we haven't even hit the max impact of his sexist remarks and lewd actions. The good news for Trump fans is that no matter the outcome on Election Night, Trump will post ads declaring victory the night before...then complain the election is rigged if he loses. Ya see, it's win win!

every poll is a snapshot in time.  The RCP average is very laggy because it includes polls from weeks ago in the average.  The daily tracking polls are the best for watching how day to day swings and more importantly trends are going.  Both the LA times and Rasmussen had Hillary climbing big after the tape and post debate they have her falling and trump climbing.  It's fantasy land to completely ignore them.

if you want to hold onto an RCP average with polls from weeks ago then more power to you, but it's not an accurate reflection of today.  Especially with the last week we've had.