Polls (Page 12)

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Oh sweet Jesus Tony...Survey Monkey? Is this a legitimate poll? Does the LA Times know you are posting non-LA Times polls????

How about IBD/TIPP with Trump +1?

I mean, I know they were the most accurate poll in 2012 according to Nate, but they're probably garbage as well, right. 

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Oh sweet Jesus Tony...Survey Monkey? Is this a legitimate poll? Does the LA Times know you are posting non-LA Times polls????

How about IBD/TIPP with Trump +1?

I mean, I know they were the most accurate poll in 2012 according to Nate, but they're probably garbage as well, right. 

 

Lots o' cherry trees out your way...that's some mighty fine cherry pickin'.

I post numerous polls that are tied I'm cherry picking, but you picking ones at the opposite end and you aren't? Lol

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Oh sweet Jesus Tony...Survey Monkey? Is this a legitimate poll? Does the LA Times know you are posting non-LA Times polls????

How about IBD/TIPP with Trump +1?

I mean, I know they were the most accurate poll in 2012 according to Nate, but they're probably garbage as well, right. 

 

Lots o' cherry trees out your way...that's some mighty fine cherry pickin'.

I post numerous polls that are tied I'm cherry picking, but you picking ones at the opposite end and you aren't? Lol

Actually, you are incorrect. If you've read what I've posted, I've been pretty consistent about posting averages. I'm not posting non-stop about polls that have Hillary thwacking your guy. The averages are what they are. The trends are what they are. Hillary has led since the end of July, through, August, September, and October, widening her lead to 6.3% currently. I know you are searching hard for positives...but there's a reason the Trump team and the GOP establishment is jumping ship. The guy's just not fit to be president.

Best I can tell the only ones jumping ship are the ones who were never on the ship in the first place.  If you recall there was an outright revolt vs. Ryan when he had his little conference call after the tape went public. 

On a side note, it doesn't appear that things are necessarily going smooth with Hillary's relationships within her party either. 
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/wikileaks-hilary-clinton-progressives-230009

I saw this quote from somebody on a conservative site earlier today and thought it was interesting:

Food for thought.

Hillary's campaign is so dishonest.  Of course this is a conservative website, but the story speaks for itself. 
http://www.breitbart.com/hillary-clinton/2016/10/20/trump-wins-breitbart-debate-poll-despite-massive-foreign-pro-clinton-infiltration/

Why would they cheat on a conservative website poll?

Nate Silver had a couple good articles about "live polls" versus online polls.  He basically will tell you that online polls have value but should be weighted less than live polls.  As a computer guy, I'd call them crap, knowing how much online polls can skew (e.g. non-voters or non-citizens participating in online polls, or people casting multiple votes, etc).  Basically, the voting fraud that's been mostly debunked in a real election is EASILY possible in online polls.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/live-polls-and-online-polls-tell-different-stories-about-the-election/

For sure and I totally agree online polls are garbage.  if anything they just give you a feel for the audience of a particular site.
My only comment was why somebody would intentionally "bot" online polls to make it appear as though Hillary was really winning.  If anything this very articles shows exactly why online polls aren't scientific in any way.   

lol, it's not so much that I'm flouting the outliers showing him ahead so much as me wondering if the polls are accurate due to the disparity in turnout models used.  Then more importantly what polls of the polls are accurate?  Are you banking your bet on the average to be accurate or any one particular poll to be accurate?  We have almost a 20 point spread in the outliers so I can almost guarantee that one of them will be right.  ;-)

I think the poll scientists have proven they don't know what they're doing this year no matter what happens because they're all over the place.  Sure we can average them, but that doesn't mean they're all right.  Usually they have a spread of maybe 5 points or so to work with 

That being said I have no problem accepting the ultimate poll which is the election itself.  I do believe there is fraud, but I don't think it's crazy bad.  Sure, if there's one or two states with fractional percentage point differences then we can get into the muck.
As for Hillary I'm far more comfortable with her as President than I am Obama.  He's a train wreck ideologue that wants to fundamentally change America.  Hillary is just a traditional corrupt politician that will continue with the Bush/Clinton status quo.  It's not good, but it's way better than Obama. 

I don't really get the sense that it's going to be a tight race either way.  If the polls averages are right then Hillary will win comfortably.  If they're wrong then it's going to be fun watching all the Liberals explode.   

I was just looking at the latest RCP polls and it's so curious.
All of the daily tracking polls (IBD/TIPP +1, Rasmussen +2, and LA Times +1) have Trump in the lead, but all of the non daily tracking polls have it up big for Hillary.  Quinnipiac +7, Bloomberg +9, YouGov +4, Reuters +4, FoxNews +6, NBC +6, Boston Globe +10.

They're all scientific polls so what makes them different?

I've learned over the years to trust the polls because they've generally been pretty accurate, but they've generally been pretty close to each other as well.  All of the RCP polls prior to the 2012 election were within a couple points of each other.  ALL of them!
So, no matter how much you want to pretend it's not there is something different about this year and I think the pollsters are struggling to capture it.  It could be as simple as the wild swings we've been experiencing from bombshells happening almost daily pulling people back and forth wildly.  It could also be that nobody has a clue whose going to turnout this year because it's so different then anything we've ever seen before.

You are very confident in Hillary winning and that's cool.  I'm not very confident in Trump winning, but I'm also not very confident in Hillary winning.  I simply realize that it's anybodies game at this point.  Shoot, there's probably 10 more bombshells to drop in the next couple weeks that could be devastating to either candidate so even that makes the polls today completely irrelevant. 

The irony of you're argument CD is that I agree with you historically.  The polls have been pretty decent at predicting the winners and they've been fairly consistent over time.  However the polls this year are downright whacked in a way that we've never seen before.

For example ABCNews just released a poll with Hillary +13 and when you dig into the details they have it skewed to a Democrats +9 turnout.  That number is larger than any Democrat turnout since the 70's, so how are they justifying their data?
In contrast you have Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP, and LA Times that have Trump even or in the lead.  I'm not saying they're more right, but you can't in any way say the "polls are accurate" when the delta is almost 20 points between the outliers.  Even your example above had a 6 point swing between the outliers with everybody else in the middle which bolsters using an average.

To top it off, you have RCP who seems to be selectively omitting certain polls from the same pollster that they include already to even further skew the "average".  I forget which one it was, but they were leaving an older poll less favorable to Trump in place of a newer one that was more favorable.

When you cast the fact that the "media" polls such as NBC/ABC/CNN/etc. are way out there against the proven narrative of the media being in the tank for Hillary it has to at least make you wonder if they're intentionally skewing the results.  As I mentioned earlier there is absolutely zero scientific or historic basis to skew a poll by +9 Dem, but ABCnews is doing it.

Yet again, what is the bias the polls are using and do you Trust them as accurate?  I'm finding it harder and harder to.

I do agree Trump needs to win FL for sure.  PA is likely optional but a much harder road if he doesn't.
I saw that Monmouth had NC as Clinton +1.  Been a steady slide for her there the past few weeks. Monmouth is also one of the most egregious for over sampling of Dems so Trumps likely up 5 there.  :-D 

I'm genuinely fascinated to see what shakes out with the election compared to the polls this year.

I was referring to the Monmouth poll specifically.  I saw a graphic earlier that showed her going from up 6% to the 1% now.  As I've said before I tend to look at same polls for trends because comparing monmouth today to reuters from a month ago doesn't really tell us anything. 

I think the stats that will determine the election are these (as of last week):

Trump leads Clinton by about 7% with male voters
Clinton leads Trump by about 20% with female voters

Yet again, what polls do we trust?
IBD has almost the exact opposite demographic data showing in their most recent poll.  Trump +14 with men and Clinton only +8 with women and only a 7 point lead among voters 18-44.  Those numbers would be horrible for Clinton. 

Black Likely Voters trend for TRUMP in the Rasmussen poll

Oct 3 – 9%
Oct 6 – 12%
Oct 7 – 13%
Oct 10 – 14%
Oct 11 – 19%
Oct 12 – 19%
Oct 13 – 24%
Oct 17 – 17%
Oct 18 – 19%
Oct 19 – 18%
Oct 20 – 15%
Oct 21 – 16%
Oct 24 – 15%
Oct 25 – 16%

For comparison Obama got 93% of the black vote in 2012 to Romney's 6% and in 2008 Obama got 95% to McCains 4%.

Latest Florida CNN poll shows Trump with a 2 pt. lead over Clinton.......a week ago they had Florida as leaning Democrat.