trishie - 2012-11-13 1:25 PM
Thoughts on this, BT?
I got this email from Athlinks.com --
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Tricia -
The past four years have seen an alarming decline in U.S. racing performances in distances across the board. 5K times are off by +1:17, that's a 4% decline! Average Ironman times have increased by +21:54, a nearly 3% decline. I ask you - How could we let this happen to this, the Swiftest of Nations?
Average Times for Leading
Race Distances from 2009-2012
Distance | 2009 | 2012 | Change | % Change |
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5K Run | 30:30 | 31:47 | +1:17 | +4.04% |
10K Run | 1:01:01 | 1:02:28 | +1:27 | +2.34% |
Half Mara | 3:30:01 | 3:30:20 | +0:18 | +0.15% |
Marathon* | 4:33:18 | 4:33:13 | -0:04 | -0.03% |
Olympic Tri | 2:52:53 | 2:55:55 | +3:02 | +1.73% |
Half Iron | 5:59:43 | 6:05:49 | +6:06 | +1.73% |
Ironman | 12:49:44 | 13:11:39 | +21:54 | +2.77% |
* Marathon times were the only notable improvement. Sample Sizes('09/'12): 5K (2,705,308/3,431,895); 10K (834,692/954,978); Half Mar (124,606/98,632); Marathon (474,214/405,624); Oly Tri (78,551/86,849); Half Iron (53,285/61,639); Ironman (17,566/18,429) |
I urge you to join us along with your fellow American road racers, trail runners, triathletes, cyclists, and swimmers in making a new commitment to restoring the speed to your own community.
We have already begun work on tools that will help to monitor and report progress across all events, states, genders, and age groups. We will begin rolling out the changes between now and the first of the year. But the first step begins with you and your commitment to training and racing. The second step is encouraging those around you to do the same!
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My guess is that more people are racing and a lot of these people are beginners .. and (generally) newer athletes = slower athletes.
Personally, I don't care that average times are getting slower - that just means I place higher 
What say you?
Until the times are adjusted for participation to include age groups and gender, these numbers don't mean much to me. The US population is aging overall, thanks to the Baby Boomers hitting retirement age. So perhaps the age distribution in these numbers is also increasing?
Along with Trishie's comment on newer athletes, the change could easily be explained. In fact it may show we're getting faster, when accounting for ages and gender.