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2012-06-07 4:26 PM
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Subject: RE: 97% of Climate Scientists agree the sky is blue...
mr2tony - 2012-06-07 12:10 PM
ecozenmama - 2012-06-07 11:17 AM
tuwood - 2012-06-07 11:11 AM

probably my two biggest "skepticism" points are

1. the fact that there's so much money and politics flowing into the debate that the true Science gets a little cloudy.  I'm mostly in the camp of I don't necessarily trust what the Science is telling me because I feel the money and politics of it has potentially influenced the data.

2. The other question I have is: who is to say the earth is at the optimal temperature right now?  I read somewhere (probably 10 years ago) that said if the earth were warmer we could produce a lot more food and there would be a lot more livable land due to the northern land masses having a lot more land than the central land masses.  This could be a bogus argument, but as a non scientist I just wonder if its good or bad to have the earth a little warmer. This thought pattern also leads me to discount the doom/gloom prophesies of the more extreme global warming crowd.

So, all in all I am still in the needing to be convinced its real category and then there's the whole other debate about how to fix it.

I believe that the earth has been through climate changes before, adapted, and survived.  It will survive us, and will evolve with or without us.  I am not sure there is a way to "fix" the situation.  

Who is to say that the earth isn't going through a natural process.  Perhaps we have sped up that process, who knows.  I agree that there are changes coming, but to what extent human kind is responsible for it, I am not sure we will ever know with absolute certainty.  

Ninety seven percent of scientists studying the phenomenon. 

Touche, but I would rather believe Al Gore, he has nice hair.  

That said, I agree that we'll survive it and find a way to either slow it down or get rid of it completely. As for TuWood's thoughts that we'll be able to produce more crops as the Earth warms, that's not entirely true. Warmer temperatures have a HUGE impact on crop production and precipitation patterns. An example of this is the dry weather in Texas. That's caused by warming temperatures in the Pacific Ocean of maybe a degree or two, which causes more of the water that'd normally come off the ocean to evaporate before making landfall and then dry weather in Texas. It's a bit more complicated than that but you know what I'm saying. And it's that way globally. If the oceans warm or air temps warm, moisture will evaporate more quickly in the air meaning less for crops. The Earth already has a fresh-water shortage and it will only get worse if global warming or climate change or whatever you want to call it worsens.

We live in TX, and you are correct the weather has changed a lot in the last few years.  When we first moved here, we had an entire summer of rain.  Over the years, our droughts have gotten worse.  I am in no way saying that Global Warming isn't happening.  

I guess I feel the earth is already evolving to compensate for the climate changes.  I am just curious what can be done if anything.  



2012-06-07 4:59 PM
in reply to: #4250592

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Subject: RE: 97% of Climate Scientists agree the sky is blue...
drewb8 - 2012-06-07 3:11 PM
powerman - 2012-06-07 1:31 PM

Yes, but then look at all the other carbon sources man is adding, farts, soft drinks, exhaling.... so if we train more and add use more air should we be taxed more than sedintary people?

Also, the absorbtion rate has increased as well... just not fast enough. So should we tax carbon, or just the amount over the absorbtion rate... do we have to cut all carbon emissions to meet some arbitray CO2 level... or do we just cut enough to allow absorbtion to increase too so an excess is not occuring?

then we do tAlk about ecconomics.... which is more reasonable... to sink a bunch of money into soultions we are not sure their impact it will have... or sink a bunch of money into CCS? Carbon capture is actually quite easy... sequestration is another ball game. but if we do come up with a way to eccomomically sequester carbon... then what is the complaint?

Biological processes (respiration, farts, etc.) are not adding any CO2 to the atmosphere.  It is simply returning to the atmosphere the CO2 that the plants (or the animals we eat that ate the plants) recently removed from the atmosphere.  Its a part of the carbon cycle and the net result is a wash.  The plants pull it out, we eat the plants and add it back in, but it isn't adding any new CO2 to the system that wasn't already in it.  It isn't changing the balance.

When you burn fossils fuels though, you ARE adding CO2 and almost all of the increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is coming from the burning of fossil fuels (adding C that was previously stored underground) or changes in land use (primarily deforestation - reducing the amouont of C that is removed from the atmosphere by plants).

You are right that mother nature has been absorbing much of the extra CO2 (we've added enough CO2 to increase the concentration from ~280 ppb in pre-industrial times to just about 400 ppb now.  If all the CO2 we've emitted stayed in the atmopshere though the level would be ~500 ppb) but almost all of the additional absorption is being done by the oceans.  What is your source that says absorption is increasing?  Studies I've seen show that at some point the oceans will actually become saturated and their ability to absorb our excess CO2 will drop.  But besides that, using the oceans as a sink for the CO2 we're emitting is causing them to become acidified and has the potential for some pretty severe effects on its own.

If there was a way to ecnomically sequester carbon, I don't think there would be any complaint at all, in fact you'd hear people from everywhere calling for more fossil fuels.  But this belief that we have time to just twiddle our thumbs while we keep doing what we're doing is just extremely poor risk management in an area where the consequences for being wrong could be really severe.  A lot of the research coming in is showing that if anything ,we've been underestimating both the scale of the effects and the quickness with which they can occur and I really am starting to have serious concerns for the world I'm leaving my kids and my kids kids.  I'm not a doomsayer, it won't be the end of the human race or anything, but I think they're going to live in a world that is very different from the one we live in now, and the sad thing is, it's not like we don't know what we're doing.

 

I can't remember... I have not really looked into things in a while. As with any chemical process, if you increse concentrations, then there is more available for use. You would expect to see an increase in absorbtion. I remember reading that that was indeed happening, but not at a fast enough rate...  I also found what I expected was not true... that plants will not absorb more because the higher temps have a negative effect, and that the oceans will not absorb more because carbonic acid slows calcification.  So I never wanted to make it seem like that was the solution because I understand there are limits.

I also understand what we are adding by unlocking carbon. A trade rag mentioned 9 plants right now operating with CCS, yet everyone I read about was capturing carbon and "using" it, but they were not sequestering it. One plant sold all it's CO2 to a soft drink bottling company. Great that you found a use... but that is not sequestration. So far I am skeptical of current sequestration applications. I don't see how pumping it into the ground is at all a feasable answer. But I certainly think it is a worth while endeavor to find a way. Ecconomics though are always key... it's one thing to make it happen, it's another thing to do it ecconomically on a commercial scale.

 

2012-06-07 5:18 PM
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Subject: RE: 97% of Climate Scientists agree the sky is blue...
powerman - 2012-06-07 3:59 PM

I can't remember... I have not really looked into things in a while. As with any chemical process, if you increse concentrations, then there is more available for use. You would expect to see an increase in absorbtion. I remember reading that that was indeed happening, but not at a fast enough rate...  I also found what I expected was not true... that plants will not absorb more because the higher temps have a negative effect, and that the oceans will not absorb more because carbonic acid slows calcification.  So I never wanted to make it seem like that was the solution because I understand there are limits.

I also understand what we are adding by unlocking carbon. A trade rag mentioned 9 plants right now operating with CCS, yet everyone I read about was capturing carbon and "using" it, but they were not sequestering it. One plant sold all it's CO2 to a soft drink bottling company. Great that you found a use... but that is not sequestration. So far I am skeptical of current sequestration applications. I don't see how pumping it into the ground is at all a feasable answer. But I certainly think it is a worth while endeavor to find a way. Ecconomics though are always key... it's one thing to make it happen, it's another thing to do it ecconomically on a commercial scale.

 

And there's the rub - making it economical.  Personally, I don't have much faith in any efforts to impose limits, I just don't think between the economic and political realities that that's a feasible way to go about reducing our carbon use (with the exception of vehicle mileage standards - I think there is huge opportunity there and it's economically and politically doable).  But what DO think we should be doing is investing gobs and gobs of money in technology and innovations to research renewable energy and carbon capture of fossil fuels.  There are things we can do to encourage conservation which I think would be worthwhile, such as a revenue neutral carbon tax, but overall, I think realistically it comes down to two options if we want to retain a somewhat recognizable and habitable climate: 1) invest hugely now in technology 2) invest much, much, much, much more hugely in technology later once we realize how screwed we really are.  Unfortunately, we are a reactive species and I think it's much more likely we won't act until we're absolutely forced to by something bad, the same way it happens with plane crashes. 
2012-06-07 7:08 PM
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Subject: RE: 97% of Climate Scientists agree the sky is blue...

Well where to spend the money is another can of worms... honestly, we have natural disasters now. Those will never end. We live all the way from the Arctic to the Equator... the moderate zones may shift North. Right now we may reduce our habitat, or we may reduce supporting habitat. We may start a chain reaction... all this may mean this planet will support fewer people.

At some point what is the limiting factor for how many people can occupy this fish bowl? How much carbon we produce, waste, deforestation, clean water, agricultural land. At some point there is a limit. The more crowded this planet becomes, the more of a problem all of this will be. I guess what I'm saying is if it is not one thing, it will be another. There will be more mass extinctions in our future. I'm not saying causing one ourselves is OK, just that it's a fact.

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