Investment / Trading Ideas (Page 3)

gr33n - 2013-02-14 10:07 AM

rayd - 2013-02-14 3:40 PM

Meulen - 2013-02-14 7:11 AM Best Buy bid fell apart last night!

I don't know what it did last night in after hours trading...but it's up this morning and the rest of the markets are down.

I've been waiting for a correction for over a year now...I kind of wonder if this bull has FINALLY run it's course?

What happened on BBY yesterday- It had like a $2 range in the last 10 minutes. Fat finger ? Odd...

I kind of like energy plays higher. I have none though. I'd prefer a direct exposure to energy prices rather than through shares. Watching the ETFs.

Otherwise waiting for the marklet to roll over. Long SDS is my biggest position which is not going great so far.

It was higher with news Senator Durbin was re-introducing an internet tax bill.  That's out there today and there is a small boutique firm saying it's worth $22 as a turn around play.  I still disagree.  This is a broken business model.  The reason they couldn't get a bid together is because private equity didn't like the prospects.  If the turn around experts can't turn it around, that's enough for me.  I'm short through the options which are still even money for me, so I'm ok.  I still think this plays out to downside.  If the market turns and they keep burning cash it's $10 by year end.

gr33n - 2013-02-14 10:07 AM

rayd - 2013-02-14 3:40 PM

Meulen - 2013-02-14 7:11 AM Best Buy bid fell apart last night!

I don't know what it did last night in after hours trading...but it's up this morning and the rest of the markets are down.

I've been waiting for a correction for over a year now...I kind of wonder if this bull has FINALLY run it's course?

What happened on BBY yesterday- It had like a $2 range in the last 10 minutes. Fat finger ? Odd...

I kind of like energy plays higher. I have none though. I'd prefer a direct exposure to energy prices rather than through shares. Watching the ETFs.

Otherwise waiting for the marklet to roll over. Long SDS is my biggest position which is not going great so far.

I'm kind of liking the same thing.  Been staring ROSE in the face the past couple of weeks.  They have about $700 mill invested in Eagle Ford.  The field (not rosetta) is going at 600,000 barrels / day and expectations are at 1.5 mill per day close to mid of 2014.  I'm waiting for another drop in stock price and then I'll likely buy in.  $50 today last I checked.  Pretty volatile stock.

I agree with you completely.  I don't like the ETF's on the treasuries though.  The tracking error is HUGE on them and you never make you expect even if you're right!

Still taking a bath here on BBY.  I can't figure out why this thing keeps going up, but some of the big holders are using the opportunity to get out.  So I'm sticking with it for now.

Yeah I know re the tracking but its the only way I have to play it.

I can't figure out BBY, I'm just sticking with my initial gut and playing options to control my possible losses. 

AAPL I'm not Kean on.  I owned it at $87 after the crash in '08.  Admittedly I sold it way too early even though it was a substantial gain.  I personally don't get why it trades so high.  PE is in-line with all it's cash on bal sheet, but they don't use that cash for anything.  It concerns me.  It tips me off they may be running out of ideas.  They may be in the later stages of company evolution and maturing.  They are in a business where you are only as good as your next idea.  Their idea man is gone, unfortunately.  The stock price is high, so to me they have to show me they have the next big idea again.

I know what you mean about fund managers.  However, I know a lot of managers that are incredible over the long haul.  I see a lot of very smart managers out there.  Sometimes it looks like they don't win today, but I know guys that win time and time again over the long haul.  Remember, they only have to be right 51% of the time to make a profit!  That opens the door to a lot of criticism.  I am a little bias though!

Their streaming service sucks. It's easy to run out of titles in no times. 

Oh the stock? I think very long term, they aren't going to do well. 

I think we're going to see volatility increasing in the very near future and equity strength unravel very quickly. Fed minutes showed although policy is still controlled by the doves, as a whole they're increasingly considering exit strategies from QE. The writing is on the wall. Markets won't wait. In addition  China for the first time in 9 months started to drain liquidity today. Shanghai -3% today. Data continues to look bad in EU. Unemployment rising even further, manufacturing surveys still mostly in contraction.

I sold the Templeton Asia fund I've held today. Plan on adding to SDS (S&P inverse) when US market opens today).

I'm no AAPL expert but the stock's 2 main headwinds are its over owned, and its best days are behind it wrt product innovation (at least for a while). Not a good combination. That said, that may be what brought it from 700 to the mid 400's. Add to that its an open question wrt whether they'll be able to successfully transition to the post Jobs era or not.

The 420-430 level I'm looking at is a series of previous tops from 2011 and early 2012 that it gapped higher from on Jan 25 2012. Technically it should close that gap. If it closes and starts to trade below I think it opens up potential for 350-360 where one would probably have to buy it.

As for Big George. I knew a couple guys that used to work for him a long time ago. But thats a subject for a whole different conversation.... Good luck with the trades.

AAPL- I've made my money and am moving on.  It's a show me story now for me.  Show me the next big thing and I'll believe again.

AMZN- I'm not up to speed on their valuation, but I believe in the company.  They have Cash Flow!  Bazzos runs that company like it's private.  He's one of the few pubicly owned co. CEO's that gets away with this because he's such a visionary.  He has the CF power to put everyone else out of business over time and that's what he's doing.

Broader market- I've significantly lowered my exposure.  I think analysts that are upgrading stocks now are only conceding to momentum and tired of being wrong because of it.  They aren't being patient enough.  EU/China/US are contracting.  Jobs are slowing down again and fed is thinking about removing stimulous.  I have a few longs still.  I'm long on some oil and natural gas plays that I'm looking for exit points on.  I'm long on KCG but played that perfect with options on the buyout and will be called away soon.  I'm long on SNDK and SHFL for a long term plays and writing calls while I wait to keep lowering my capital committment.  Other than that, I'm short INTC and loving it right now and short SWK, CMA and BBY still which aren't working out....yet!

I agree.  the Fed has put the writing on the wall.  One thing I've learned in the past couple of years...... Don't fight the Fed.  You'll lose.

I dumped a significant amount of shares on Tuesday.  [Quote from a transvestite I used to know]: "I just took my 10% and left."

sitting on the sidelines still scoping out Carizzo, EOG, Rosetta.  I'm also starting to like MO again, but having trouble getting past them financing their dividends.

Last spring I bought a VW, TDI - Jetta.  Like the car so much I looked into the company found their stock to be a bargain.  I have not regreted buying the stock and I have added to my position a couple times, including today.  VW continues to grow dominance in the auto industry and I believe will continue to do so.  When I first bought I think around June 2012 the stock was under $30 per share.  Up until today it was over $40.  Down 5% right now which I think is a good opportunity to buy more. 

Here is what I don't understand, VW reports 41% increase in profit and 21% increase in revenue. Estimates are for continued growth in 2013.  The market reacts with a 5% loss.  My only real grip for this stock is it trades the pink sheets.  I can't get as much information on it as I can other stocks on the major exchanges.  So I really don't know what pushed this stockl lower today.  Oh, Best Buy is up again today.  Really baffles me...

premarket does not look good today...other than BBY.  They are up > 5% premarket because even though they still report negative earning...it's not as bad as expected.  make no sense to me as the company is going the way of Circuit City, Borders, and many of these other retailers. 

I seldom time things right but yesterday at lunch I sold about 30% of my holdings...what I consider the riskier equities.  The market was green at that time but felt this was a good time to cover.  Glad I did!  I'm still holding MO, JNJ, GLW, NEM and AAPL.  I didn't sell DDD either.  Looking at them this morning...wish I would have.  Not going short yet...but tempted to short BBY if it really rallys today. 

It'll drop today because of the sequester.  It'll be back up next week when the traders realize it's not a big deal.

I may put in some buy money this weekend.