Polls (Page 8)

Of course odds have nothing to do with it. So you can either believe that he was targeted the IRS that was under the direction of a Republican administration for 8 years and then again by a Democrat administration for another 8 years, or you come to the conclusion that there's something fishy in his returns. As to why he's not in jail, well to quote Mr. Trump. "I was a businessman. I give to everybody. When they call, I give. And you know what? When I need something from them, two years later, three years later, I call them, and they are there for me." He brags about paying in to our "pay to play" system, but has never given any specifics on what he got in return.

Or...(borrowing Tony's tinfoil hat)...you can believe the rumors that he's not being audited. It's all lie he's using as an excuse to keep his taxes secret so people don't find out about his Russian ties or see how much he donates to NAMBLA. 

If you use Turbo Tax you see after you taxes are completed they assess you likelihood of being audited.  There are a number of red flags that go up for certain things...such as a lot of charitable contributions.  Give 10% of your gross income to your church and that sets a red flag.  Have multiple sources of income and that seta a red flag.  Capitol gains, investment losses, giving money to the Clinton Foundation for political favors and then deducting that as a business expense.....all set up red flags.  It stands to reason that there are many red flags set when you are a billionaire.

No reason at all to release his taxes!

The problem with personal income tax is it is impossible to police.  Most people don't get audited and many people cheat.  My brother's accountant said, "That $100 silk tie you are wearing.....you wouldn't be wearing that if not for your job would you?  Business expense."  Don't know if my brother took the deduction or not.....I did not ask.

If Tony can believe that Hillary was giving secret hand signals to Lester Holt, then I can believe that Trump is hiding donations to NAMBLA. Nothing short of the release of all of his tax records will convince me otherwise!

It's not really an odds thing it has to do with the size of his businesses.  I'd say that almost every multi-billion dollar business gets audited every year to some extent because the potential reward for the IRS is so great.  A small company like me is very rarely audited unless they see an anomaly.  I did get audited by the state a few years ago because they thought I under-paid on something.  The funniest part of the story is the auditor that showed up was somebody that I used to counsel for addiction so he laughed when he showed up and actually found that we over-paid so it wasn't a big deal.

I don't in any way feel that Trump being audited is targeting by the IRS because as was mentioned it was going on long before Obama took office.  My only point was that due to the politicization of the IRS under Obama "IF" Trump was doing something illegal it would "get out" somehow so I feel we can all be comfortable that there's nothing illegal going on.  Now politically embarrassing?  For sure that could be there.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that even if he was giving to NAMBLA it wouldn't be on his tax returns.  lol
It would just be under the consolidated "charitable giving" line.

Corporate tax returns are just like your personal return with summary lines.  You just put a number for charitable giving and only have to produce the qualifying documentation in the event that you're audited, but none of the charity information will ever be shown on your actual tax return. 

I feel he's biased because he's an outspoken Democratic supporter and he uses "subjective" inputs that are not disclosed to make his final determinations.  He has issues with the LA Times turnout model as an example and I have issues with his turnout models.

As an example his "Now Cast" which is his "if the election were held today" predictions on the eve of the debate he had it with Trump in the lead.  Now a few days later with virtually zero polls changed he is now at 72% Clinton and 28% Trump chance.  This shows me that a large portion of his "prediction" is based on subjective data such as "I think Hillary did better in the debate" which is completely non-scientific.

Remember, he was horribly wrong throughout the Republican primaries so his "Trump effect" statistical logic is proven flawed already.   

Everyone knows Trump doesn't give to charity! Plus, I assume NAMBLA isn't a 501(c)(3), so his donations would have to be itemized as a work expense. 

lol on NAMBLA, you might be right there.  

As for trump giving to charity, you're buying into the media lie about him being stingy with his money.  Everyone is trying to measure his charity by his tax returns because that's what we do with politicians.   Hillary isn't charitable at all, but she checks the box by giving the required 10% to her own slush fund charity to make it appear as though she does.

Trump on the other hand is just charitable out of a generous heart.  He sends his private plane to pick up sick kids who don't have transportation, he gives money to people who are afflicted by tough situations, he generously rewards people who do a great job within his company.  none of these things show up on a tax return.

I have a close friend who build high end condos for Trump for many years.  He has some of the most amazing stories about the man.  One he recently told me was about a job where Trump drove to the site to let him know that he really needed the siding completed in three weeks (hundreds of high end town homes).  The sub foreman told him he would do his best and the crew worked their tails off and got it finished.  When Trump returned he saw that it was completed and wanted to personally speak to the foreman and asked him how many people were working for him.  He left and came back about an hour later with a very large container of cash and gave every single person on the crew a very large sum of money and told the foreman the the would be using his crew for several other projects he has going on.
This is the kind of person Trump is and this is why the people who are close to him and work for him love him to death.

We can have greedy politicians who make it look like they're generous or we can have truly generous people who don't care what it looks like on paper.  

Bill was doing a little more than that in the wee hours of the morning and I thing you guys would say he was a good president.  ;-) 

I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point.  I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter.  As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her.

Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way.  We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!!  And then the carnival ride will really start.

i like how you try to make a moral equivalent to Trump having a consensual affair to Bill Clinton sexually assaulting women and Hillary calling his victims liars and doing everything she can to destroy them.  Yeeeaaahhhhh good luck with that.  If anything it shows just how horrible of a candidate Hillary is because her moral character is far worse than Trumps.  

IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close.

Thanks, we have been poking each other here for many years and fundamentally none of us really get swayed too much, but we do all learn a lot more about each other's viewpoints.  BT is one of the best sites I've found for political discussion because we're generally pretty cordial and very diverse in our beliefs.

Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. 

Let's be honest, you do that every day!

Eh.....I don't get to stay in bed....but man, I don't stop laughing.    We live in REALLY dumb times, and it gets funnier each day.

In defense of the Millennials, it is sacred law that each generation has to outrage the generation before it and we set the bar pretty high back in the 70's and 80's.  They have to be pretty crazy to make us go "what's wrong with these kids".  lol

I've got a years pay that says my millennials won't be parking their arses in my basement.   As supportive as I've always tried to be to my kids.......my home becomes inhabitable for them once they're off to college.  I've got references.   

I love it when they visit, and I'll help them afford their first place.....but they can't ever really live with me again.  They're grown......go make your way is what they get from me. (then I go into my room, close the door, and cry)  It has to be done.