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2017-12-28 9:29 AM

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Subject: Trump approval ratings

I know that approval ratings mean absolutely nothing, but it's always fun to watch them.

If you believe social media you'd think Trump has lost all his support and has zero chance of reelection, but according to Rasmussen he's at exactly the same place Obama was at this point in his Presidency.  hmmm
I suspect as the tax cuts get rocking next year his approval will steadily creep up.



2017-12-28 10:09 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
I think we can all agree that polls are no longer an accurate representation of public sentiment. The sampling and questions can be skewed for a predetermined outcome to fit a narrative. On both sides.
2017-12-28 10:41 AM
in reply to: mdg2003

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
I agree Dog, polling can not be used as the sole gauge of public sentiment and certainly not used to forecast future elections as voter motivation, and hence turnout, are difficult to judge by these polls (witness the 2016 election). As we have discussed, Rasmussen is ALWAYS an outlier poll, if you look at RCP (a meta analysis of several polls and hence more statistically valid) ( http://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_a... ), Trump approval is 39.3 / disapproval 56.2 at present.
2017-12-28 11:08 AM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Oysterboy I agree Dog, polling can not be used as the sole gauge of public sentiment and certainly not used to forecast future elections as voter motivation, and hence turnout, are difficult to judge by these polls (witness the 2016 election). As we have discussed, Rasmussen is ALWAYS an outlier poll, if you look at RCP (a meta analysis of several polls and hence more statistically valid) ( http://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_a... ), Trump approval is 39.3 / disapproval 56.2 at present.

ALWAYS an outlier huh?  ;-)

2017-12-28 11:25 AM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

I'm not a statistician by any means, but looking at the RCP average is very telling to me.  In the last two weeks we have a spread from -25% to -7% job approval rating and I suspect their methodology has a margin of error something like 2-3 points (guessing) on each of the polls.

That tells me that somebody is Horribly wrong in this profession that prides itself on being "right".

Here's the latest on RCP for Trump

In comparison, look at how tight Obama's were back in the day.  I snagged these form mid 2010 I think.  Not for comparison of their support, but to show that the various poll outlets are fairly similar in their numbers.

2017-12-28 11:46 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
I fixed it for you "but according to an outlier biased conservative/republican poll he's at exactly the same place Obama was at this point in his Presidency. hmmm"

Unfortunately this succumbs to the same issues that your other posts here do, I don't understand why you are accusing others of picking biased media sources and then do the exact same thing in literally the same sentence. Polls are never perfect predictors of anything, but at least choose something with a shred of statistical significance.

Your thoughts on climate change seem to follow the same pattern, you ignore scientific consensus and seek obscurity. If you've already made up your mind and are simply looking for validation when you do "research" then be warned, you can't change a fact because you have an opinion.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Scroll to the bottom of the hundreds of polls that are included and weighted according to bias/quality/sample error/races called correctly and you will find some nice views of approval ratings vs. previous presidents.


2017-12-28 12:03 PM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

I don't care who approves and who doesn't..........just keep the economy and the stock market rocking.  As long as that happens, by the time he's out of office I'll be checking out anyway.....spending my days on a lake with a fishing pole in one hand and a beer in the other.  The rest of you can keep gnashing your teeth or cheering on the approval rating of another.  Maybe it'll be someone who thinks climate change makes a hill of beans, and you can cheer on the regulations and guidelines to make it so.......while you wonder why your investment portfolio and retirement doesn't add up to the rest of ours.

 

2017-12-28 7:20 PM
in reply to: #5233425

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Lefty, I think we all want to ride this very positive economic atmosphere as hard and as long as we can. However, as I grew up in this country I recognize that these things are cyclical in nature For the time being I’m piling more In my 403b, hope the end don’t look like 2008
2017-12-28 8:21 PM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Oysterboy Lefty, I think we all want to ride this very positive economic atmosphere as hard and as long as we can. However, as I grew up in this country I recognize that these things are cyclical in nature For the time being I’m piling more In my 403b, hope the end don’t look like 2008

With the two big crashes of my adult lifetime 2001 and 2008 they had very similar drivers driving the growth and very similar things that caused the crash.

With the dot com boom you had trillions of dollars of venture capital being thrown into companies that had no fundamentals at all.  The stock market then bought into the hype of these extremely leveraged companies because every company was going to be worth a trillion dollars in the new dot com era.  The astronomical speculation obviously didn't pan out and everybody started panic selling and the crash ensued.

The growth leading up to 2008 was a result of government programs pushed by both political parties to enable everybody to buy a home no matter how much it cost and no matter what their credit status.  So you had people making $50k a year buying million dollar homes on interest only 1 year ARMS at 125% loan to value and blowing the $250k on fancy cars and clothes.  Then  refinancing them every six months.  The market was so over leveraged that the foreclosures were off the charts and the government was forced to intervene.  The crash was very rapid and deep because the money driving the boom was all gone and massive numbers of families were horribly underwater on their homes because trillions of dollars in value disappeared from the market instantly.

So, for those that are fearing of another crash we have to look at what's going to drive the crash.  There has to be a false injection of money into the market that props it up in a way that's not natural and requires an ultimate correction when the house of cards comes crashing down.  For years the guys can tell you that I was worried about the QE injections as being that driver because they falsely inflated the economy in similar ways to the dot com and mortgage crisis.  However, the main difference is that it's all baked into the pie now and doesn't appear that it's going to "crash".  At worse, it seems that inflation may kick in to compensate for it, but I don't see that as a crash.
The other one I worry about somewhat is the student loans.  They're almost identical to the mortgage crisis where you have 18 year old kids getting $500k in student loans with no ability to repay because they got a degree in gender studies and can't get a job making more than $10/hr.
However, even with this one it's different than the mortgage crisis because the money wasn't getting dumped into the economy all over the place like it was with the equity lines and home values.  With student loans the money is all going to big universities and they're building billion dollar stadiums so if the government stopped all student loans tomorrow it's mostly the colleges that would suffer rather than the economy as a whole.

So, even though I can be a bit pessimistic at times with the stock market I don't see any fundamental flaws right now and the majority of the growth has been from fundamental growth in companies.  With the tax law passing virtually every company listed on the market will have a 14% increase to their profit next year.  Obviously they can spend that money to offset the taxes, but then if they spend it the money goes to other companies like mine :-D

2017-12-29 7:34 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
"The other one I worry about somewhat is the student loans. They're almost identical to the mortgage crisis where you have 18 year old kids getting $500k in student loans with no ability to repay because they got a degree in gender studies and can't get a job making more than $10/hr."

Your Dave Ramsey influence is showing Tony.
2017-12-29 7:35 AM
in reply to: #5233468

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
I have really studied this and I agree, there does not appear to be a bubble driving this economy. I was afraid that we had a carbon bubble a few years ago but when opec cut production and gas prices went up nothing happened. So it is hard to see what will end this worldwide bull market, but I will stand by my original comment, this will end

As for your comments on student loans, I think you are right but you underestimate the effect on the economy. The big universities would suffer but have very diverse cash flows. The smaller local schools are more dependent on tuition money. Lots of jobs all over the country


2017-12-29 8:38 AM
in reply to: Oysterboy

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Oysterboy , this will end

Of course it will, it has to and it always does, and then it comes back......how long that takes can't be foreseen at this point.  BUT.....if you (collective you) are missing this ride then you really need to re-evaluate what you have been taught and what you know about economics and saving.

As for this run..... I'm not a greedy guy, and I have very modest retirement plans that mostly revolve around basically checking out.  I've been dealing with people and their problems for a very long time.......I'm gonna see about the fish's problems from a small place on the lake.    If things continue as they have I'll reach my number in about 6-8 months....then I'm out.  I'll work a few more years and see my kids through college, but I'll be happy to sit and watch the market do what it does.....and I hope it just continues to roll on for everyone's sake.

2017-12-29 12:14 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by Oysterboy , this will end

Of course it will, it has to and it always does, and then it comes back......how long that takes can't be foreseen at this point.  BUT.....if you (collective you) are missing this ride then you really need to re-evaluate what you have been taught and what you know about economics and saving.

As for this run..... I'm not a greedy guy, and I have very modest retirement plans that mostly revolve around basically checking out.  I've been dealing with people and their problems for a very long time.......I'm gonna see about the fish's problems from a small place on the lake.    If things continue as they have I'll reach my number in about 6-8 months....then I'm out.  I'll work a few more years and see my kids through college, but I'll be happy to sit and watch the market do what it does.....and I hope it just continues to roll on for everyone's sake.



You got a pension Lefty?
2017-12-29 12:57 PM
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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Oysterboy
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by Oysterboy , this will end

Of course it will, it has to and it always does, and then it comes back......how long that takes can't be foreseen at this point.  BUT.....if you (collective you) are missing this ride then you really need to re-evaluate what you have been taught and what you know about economics and saving.

As for this run..... I'm not a greedy guy, and I have very modest retirement plans that mostly revolve around basically checking out.  I've been dealing with people and their problems for a very long time.......I'm gonna see about the fish's problems from a small place on the lake.    If things continue as they have I'll reach my number in about 6-8 months....then I'm out.  I'll work a few more years and see my kids through college, but I'll be happy to sit and watch the market do what it does.....and I hope it just continues to roll on for everyone's sake.

You got a pension Lefty?

Yessir, a fund that I manage, set up through Vanguard (although we've changed companies through the years a few times)

30 years of 18% of my salary paid into by the city (don't pay into SS) plus another 3% that I put in because the City matches that....so 24%.  I have heavily invested in the stock market and stayed in through all of the downs in 97, 01, and 08.......I'll leave with 1.5 - 1.7 million in the fund.  Like I said, it's not a great sum of money, but I'm a pretty simple guy.  I saved all I could so I could one day live in a cabin on a lake,  and watch the world go by while I fished and hunted in the winter....and that's what I'll do.  I've been blessed with the job I wanted since I was a small boy and I'll have the retirement I always hoped I could make possible.   My wife will likely work 5-7 years after I retire and she will travel 8-10 months of the year.  She has her own pension and I'll have health care through her (federal employee).  I guess she'll visit me.............it's not gonna be easy.



Edited by Left Brain 2017-12-29 12:58 PM
2017-12-31 8:30 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Yessir, a fund that I manage, set up through Vanguard




You in VSCGX? It's a solid, reliable performer I keep in one of my self managed accounts.
2018-01-01 7:34 AM
in reply to: mdg2003

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
So Trumps approval is heading up.....presumably because of the tax plan. I think it will go up more when people get extra money in their paychecks.

News media already dancing in the end zone expecting to flip the House and Senate. A lot can happen between now and November. Dems are pointing to historical mid terms but I think we are in non-historic territory.

They are talking an infrastructure bill and most think dems will not support it just to oppose Trump. SMH. How about do what is best for the country?!


2018-01-01 11:06 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Seems a bit odd... give a massive tax break to businesses, a small temporary tax break to individuals, then go try and spend more money we don't have? I've always blamed dems for thinking we are dealing with monopoly money, but apparently the GOP is even more fiscally irresponsible. Pretty sure collecting less money and spending more money is not going to help the deficit.

Why didn't the GOP do what's best for our country when it opposed the $478B infrastructure bill along party lines in 2016? Now all of a sudden the shoe is on the other foot?
2018-01-01 11:15 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Originally posted by Synon

Seems a bit odd... give a massive tax break to businesses, a small temporary tax break to individuals, then go try and spend more money we don't have? I've always blamed dems for thinking we are dealing with monopoly money, but apparently the GOP is even more fiscally irresponsible. Pretty sure collecting less money and spending more money is not going to help the deficit.

Why didn't the GOP do what's best for our country when it opposed the $478B infrastructure bill along party lines in 2016? Now all of a sudden the shoe is on the other foot?


Makes as much sense as the democrats suddenly being concerned about the deficit. Yeah, they're both actively screwing the American taxpayer and pointing the finger at the other guy. We need term limits. All our politicians are doing is sticking around to settle scores from the previous administrations actions.
2018-01-01 11:59 AM
in reply to: mdg2003

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
The idea behind the corporate cuts is sound. Reducing taxes makes doing business in America more attractive. It also frees up money so companies can expand creating more jobs (and tax payers). The tax cuts don’t expire till 2025 and can be extended....but will likely be a Democrat problem by then and I’m sure they would be reluctant to raise taxes shortly after taking the WH. With 200 million or so having an extra 1 or 2 thousand in disposable income will mean most will spend the money and this will boost the economy even more. A rising tide floats all boats!
2018-01-01 1:43 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Yeah, they're both actively screwing the American taxpayer and pointing the finger at the other guy.


Exactly. The dems have never been concerned about the deficit btw, that's just my personal view.

Rogillio, that all sounds fantastic, cutting taxes without adding more debt would be a miracle. 1.5 trillion to the deficit, unemployment is already low. You would think the value of the dollar would have some movement if there really was belief in this growth, but it's not there. I remember the 2004 tax repatriation holiday, did they invest that money and create new jobs? The majority was used on stock buybacks, payday for investors with little benifit to the middle class or the economy. Merrill Lynch did a similar survey this summer, the top answers to how companies would spend a tax holiday was paying down debt, stock buybacks, and mergers. Actual investment in new factories and more research were low on the list. I don't doubt there will be some growth, but it seems quite a few economists don't see it as a large economic boost. If they really do put forth an infrasture bill I'm curious how they plan to pay for it.
2018-01-02 9:10 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Originally posted by Synon

Yeah, they're both actively screwing the American taxpayer and pointing the finger at the other guy.


Exactly. The dems have never been concerned about the deficit btw, that's just my personal view.




What I meant was that now they (democrats) are pretending to be concerned about the debt with the tax deal the GOP put together. 11trillion wasn't a concern when they were spending; but 1.5 trillion over ten years is suddenly is a concern when they aren't the ones spending.


2018-01-02 10:50 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Synon Seems a bit odd... give a massive tax break to businesses, a small temporary tax break to individuals, then go try and spend more money we don't have? I've always blamed dems for thinking we are dealing with monopoly money, but apparently the GOP is even more fiscally irresponsible. Pretty sure collecting less money and spending more money is not going to help the deficit. Why didn't the GOP do what's best for our country when it opposed the $478B infrastructure bill along party lines in 2016? Now all of a sudden the shoe is on the other foot?

The argument about giving "massive tax breaks to businesses" and "small temporary tax breaks to individuals" falls very flat because people know why they did it that way.  The Republicans wanted to give larger tax cuts to individuals and larger tax cuts to corporations, but because of the obstructionist Democrats they had to work within the reconciliation process that limited the deal to $1.5T.  The only way they could do the level they did was to clip two years off the end of the individual cuts.  The reason they chose that was because there's not a single Democrat or Republican who will make those cuts go away, but the entire Democratic party who enjoys demonizing corporations would most definitely let temporary corporate cuts sunset.  So the tax cuts for individuals will be permanent.
The Democrats need to be careful campaigning on the issue as well because they only need 7 senators to agree to make them permanent and it could be done this week.  The Democrats don't want them to be permanent and refuse to vote on it, will be the campaign commercials.

Don't forget, Trump isn't really a conservative in the sense of traditional Republicans.  The Republican party has been against infrastructure spending and lots of other things in the past because nobody wanted to pay for it.  Trump is kind of a different duck though and he's leading on this issue and willing to look at it in different ways.  The Republicans appear to be getting in line behind him and he should also get a fair amount of Democratic support.  We can all agree that it's needed to be done for a long time, but the problem is that nobody wants to pay for it.  I'll be genuinely curious what comes out in the plan because I'm not a huge fan myself of spending trillions of dollars without a way to pay for it. 
One point that Trump has made which is really a good one is that we've spent $6T on the wars in the middle east.  This has to stop and we can use this money to rebuild American infrastructure.

2018-01-02 10:59 AM
in reply to: Synon

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by Synon
Yeah, they're both actively screwing the American taxpayer and pointing the finger at the other guy.
Exactly. The dems have never been concerned about the deficit btw, that's just my personal view. Rogillio, that all sounds fantastic, cutting taxes without adding more debt would be a miracle. 1.5 trillion to the deficit, unemployment is already low. You would think the value of the dollar would have some movement if there really was belief in this growth, but it's not there. I remember the 2004 tax repatriation holiday, did they invest that money and create new jobs? The majority was used on stock buybacks, payday for investors with little benifit to the middle class or the economy. Merrill Lynch did a similar survey this summer, the top answers to how companies would spend a tax holiday was paying down debt, stock buybacks, and mergers. Actual investment in new factories and more research were low on the list. I don't doubt there will be some growth, but it seems quite a few economists don't see it as a large economic boost. If they really do put forth an infrasture bill I'm curious how they plan to pay for it.

The unemployment rate is low, but that's just a gauge as to how many people are currently seeking unemployment.  The people who are under employed or out of the job market altogether are not part of the unemployment rate.  There's a lot of people ready to go.
Remember the $1.5T number is an "estimate" based on the current economy and a small percentage of growth.  It only takes a small uptick in the GDP for that $1.5T number to be wiped out.  This tax cut could be a surplus, but honestly none of us will know for sure until it really gets going.
Remember, we have had record revenues at the Federal level for years but our deficits have continued to increase at crazy paces. Social Security and Medicare are over half and almost 2/3 of our spending.   Social Security, Medicare, and Military are 3/4 of our total spending.  We could massively increase our revenues and these programs will continue to suck it dry.  The problem is politicians are paralyzed to do anything with the entitlement programs because they pander to the poor and elderly voters.  They simply cannot touch them.   However, the only real fix to the deficit is to reform these programs and make them more sustainable.  Yet, we refuse to touch them and continue to argue about tiny little programs for roads or tiny little tax cuts (in comparison).

2018-01-02 11:05 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Synon Seems a bit odd... give a massive tax break to businesses, a small temporary tax break to individuals, then go try and spend more money we don't have? I've always blamed dems for thinking we are dealing with monopoly money, but apparently the GOP is even more fiscally irresponsible. Pretty sure collecting less money and spending more money is not going to help the deficit. Why didn't the GOP do what's best for our country when it opposed the $478B infrastructure bill along party lines in 2016? Now all of a sudden the shoe is on the other foot?

The argument about giving "massive tax breaks to businesses" and "small temporary tax breaks to individuals" falls very flat because people know why they did it that way.  The Republicans wanted to give larger tax cuts to individuals and larger tax cuts to corporations, but because of the obstructionist Democrats they had to work within the reconciliation process that limited the deal to $1.5T.  The only way they could do the level they did was to clip two years off the end of the individual cuts.  The reason they chose that was because there's not a single Democrat or Republican who will make those cuts go away, but the entire Democratic party who enjoys demonizing corporations would most definitely let temporary corporate cuts sunset.  So the tax cuts for individuals will be permanent.
The Democrats need to be careful campaigning on the issue as well because they only need 7 senators to agree to make them permanent and it could be done this week.  The Democrats don't want them to be permanent and refuse to vote on it, will be the campaign commercials.

Don't forget, Trump isn't really a conservative in the sense of traditional Republicans.  The Republican party has been against infrastructure spending and lots of other things in the past because nobody wanted to pay for it.  Trump is kind of a different duck though and he's leading on this issue and willing to look at it in different ways.  The Republicans appear to be getting in line behind him and he should also get a fair amount of Democratic support.  We can all agree that it's needed to be done for a long time, but the problem is that nobody wants to pay for it.  I'll be genuinely curious what comes out in the plan because I'm not a huge fan myself of spending trillions of dollars without a way to pay for it. 
One point that Trump has made which is really a good one is that we've spent $6T on the wars in the middle east.  This has to stop and we can use this money to rebuild American infrastructure.




I did not know that about the temp cuts. I admire your command of the issues. Thanks

2018-01-02 12:09 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Trump approval ratings

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Synon Seems a bit odd... give a massive tax break to businesses, a small temporary tax break to individuals, then go try and spend more money we don't have? I've always blamed dems for thinking we are dealing with monopoly money, but apparently the GOP is even more fiscally irresponsible. Pretty sure collecting less money and spending more money is not going to help the deficit. Why didn't the GOP do what's best for our country when it opposed the $478B infrastructure bill along party lines in 2016? Now all of a sudden the shoe is on the other foot?

The argument about giving "massive tax breaks to businesses" and "small temporary tax breaks to individuals" falls very flat because people know why they did it that way.  The Republicans wanted to give larger tax cuts to individuals and larger tax cuts to corporations, but because of the obstructionist Democrats they had to work within the reconciliation process that limited the deal to $1.5T.  The only way they could do the level they did was to clip two years off the end of the individual cuts.  The reason they chose that was because there's not a single Democrat or Republican who will make those cuts go away, but the entire Democratic party who enjoys demonizing corporations would most definitely let temporary corporate cuts sunset.  So the tax cuts for individuals will be permanent.
The Democrats need to be careful campaigning on the issue as well because they only need 7 senators to agree to make them permanent and it could be done this week.  The Democrats don't want them to be permanent and refuse to vote on it, will be the campaign commercials.

Don't forget, Trump isn't really a conservative in the sense of traditional Republicans.  The Republican party has been against infrastructure spending and lots of other things in the past because nobody wanted to pay for it.  Trump is kind of a different duck though and he's leading on this issue and willing to look at it in different ways.  The Republicans appear to be getting in line behind him and he should also get a fair amount of Democratic support.  We can all agree that it's needed to be done for a long time, but the problem is that nobody wants to pay for it.  I'll be genuinely curious what comes out in the plan because I'm not a huge fan myself of spending trillions of dollars without a way to pay for it. 
One point that Trump has made which is really a good one is that we've spent $6T on the wars in the middle east.  This has to stop and we can use this money to rebuild American infrastructure.

That is a really good point. Maybe Trump should actually listen to what he's saying instead of continuing to send more and more troops over there. 

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